UFO Informations - No 28 - Special Orthotenie - 2e trim 1980

Magazine Overview

This issue of U.F.O.-INFORMATIONS is a special bulletin from AIHPI, specifically from the ASSOCIATION DES AMIS DE MARC THIROUIN and the COMMISSION D'ENQUÊTE SUR LES O.V.N.I. DRÔME ARDÈCHE, identified by the acronym SPEPSE. The cover features a prominent circular graphic with the letters 'AAMP' and the title 'U.F.O.-INFORMATIONS'. The publication appears to be French in origin.

Statistical Considerations on Orthoteny

The core of this issue is a detailed statistical study titled 'CONSIDERATIONS STATISTIQUES SUR L'ORTHOTENIE' by Thierry PINVIDIC, with a subtitle 'DECOMPOSITION D'UN LEURRE'. The study is divided into two main parts: a restricted theory of orthoteny focused on France, and a generalized theory extending the analysis to the entire planet.

Introduction on Statistical Interpretation

Pinvidic begins by emphasizing the difference between rigorous statistical analysis and the subjective interpretation often applied to opinion polls and simple percentages. He argues that true statistics involve mathematical rigor, combinatorics, and probability tables, distinguishing it from mere data reporting. The process of statistics involves characterizing distributions (determining central tendency and dispersion like variance and standard deviation) and comparing distributions using mathematical tests to assess homogeneity or conformity to norms.

He highlights that all sampling is subject to fluctuations, and statistical reasoning must be done in terms of risk and significance levels. The degree of significance quantifies the écart between a hypothesis and observed results. Interpretation of statistical results involves identifying and testing hypotheses that can explain the findings, rather than relying on subjective opinions.

Introduction to the Present Study

Pinvidic explains his motivation for undertaking this study, referencing Carl Sagan and Thornton Page's 'UFO's a scientific debate' and specifically Donald Menzel's work. He notes that Jacques Scornaux's analysis of orthoteny in 'INFORESPACE' shared a similar starting point to his own research, despite Menzel's theory being older. He also references a classification of researchers in UFO-QUEBEC, placing Menzel and Sagan on the far right, Saunders and Hynek in the center-left, and Vallée on the far left.

He acknowledges that his study's conclusions may differ from those of others, quoting François Toulet: "We must content ourselves with analyzing several reasons for doubt."

Part 1: Restricted Orthoteny (France)

This section focuses on France as the unit of study, using its total surface area as a reference for probability. The concept of 'E' (epsilon) is introduced as a critical distance, defining a 'zone of probability of presence' around a point. The document explains how to determine 'E' and its relation to the probability of finding points within a certain area. It discusses the concept of 'observation corridors' and how their probability is calculated based on their width (2E) and length (D). A maximum probability of 0.01 for a corridor is proposed as a reasonable limit.

Calculations are presented for the probability of alignments of 3, 4, 5, and 6 observations. The study addresses the challenge of defining 'linearity' when observation distances are very small, as noted by Jacques Scornaux, and how this might affect the interpretation of orthoteny.

Simulation of Orthoteny

Pinvidic describes a simulation he conducted using a map of France. He randomly selected towns of medium importance (around 25,000 inhabitants), excluding the Paris suburbs, to ensure a geographically representative distribution. He initially planned to plot 100 cities but found that results from the first 30 were already satisfactory, leading him to conclude the study early. He notes that 14 of the initially listed cities were in the Nord department, which he excluded to avoid urban concentration.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme is the rigorous statistical analysis of UFO sightings, specifically focusing on linear alignments ('orthoteny'). The editorial stance, as presented by Pinvidic, is one of scientific skepticism and a demand for empirical evidence and robust mathematical interpretation, contrasting with more speculative or subjective approaches to the UFO phenomenon. The publication aims to provide a platform for detailed, data-driven investigations into UFO-related phenomena.

This issue of 'L'ORTHOTENIE GENERALISEE' (Volume II, Issue 12, dated IO, likely 1970s) delves into the complex subject of 'orthoteny,' a methodology for analyzing Unidentified Flying Object (UFO) sightings by identifying geographical alignments. The publication, likely from France given the language and place names, explores the statistical probabilities and theoretical underpinnings of these observed patterns.

Simulation and Initial Findings

The article begins with a simulation where 30 cities, chosen based on their population size, are plotted on a map. Initially, with the first 10 cities, no clear alignments are apparent. However, as the next 10 cities are added, several alignments of 3 points emerge. The authors note that one alignment, exceeding the average length, is discarded. With the final 10 cities, additional alignments are identified. The core finding is that adding more data points reveals apparent linear arrangements of sightings.

Statistical Analysis of Alignments

The subsequent sections focus on the statistical improbability of these alignments occurring by chance. The authors calculate probabilities, noting that alignments of 5 or 6 observations are not found, which is not surprising given the sample size. They discuss the concept of 'Nmax,' representing the maximum number of possible alignments, and compare experimental results to theoretical expectations. The article highlights that even an alignment of 3 points has a low probability of being random, and the probability decreases significantly for alignments of 4 points. The authors introduce criteria for the acceptability of alignments, defining thresholds for when an alignment is considered statistically significant and unlikely to be due to random chance. For instance, an alignment of three observations is deemed acceptable only if it originates from a lot of up to 9 observations.

The BAVIC Phenomenon

A significant portion of the issue is dedicated to the BAVIC phenomenon. The author expresses skepticism about its singularity and overall importance, suggesting that even if it's not due to chance, its lack of repetition diminishes its interest. The article references work by Professor David SAUNDERS, who reportedly found BAVIC's informational content to be high, yet cites Jacques SCORNAUX's critiques regarding the reliability of the data. These critiques include uncertainty about observation dates, the possibility of disorder in the phenomenon, and the sensitivity of conclusions to variations in parameters like corridor length, number of points, and total observations. The author also notes François TOULET's observation that UFO phenomena are not evenly distributed, which could lead to spurious alignments in areas with high UFO activity.

Theoretical Considerations and Limitations

The study grapples with the theoretical framework of orthoteny, questioning whether it truly represents a deterministic law or if the observed patterns are merely coincidental. The author suggests that the concept of 'permanent corridors,' as proposed by Jean-Gérard DOHMEN, is flawed because it's absurd to assume such permanence over periods where the number of reported cases is high. The article also touches upon the arbitrary nature of defining a periodicity for data analysis, opting for a 24-hour cycle due to practical limitations and the potential for paradoxes with longer cycles. A critical limitation identified is the restriction of studies to national territories, arguing that intelligent entities piloting UFOs would not be bound by human borders. This suggests the need for a global approach, incorporating the Earth's curvature and geodesic lines rather than Euclidean geometry.

Probability Fluctuations and Conclusion

The final sections delve into the fluctuation of probabilities associated with alignments. The authors calculate the probability of an alignment occurring within a 'corridor' and explore how this probability changes with the number of observations. They re-examine the criteria for acceptability, emphasizing that the probability of an alignment being due to chance is quantifiable. The issue concludes by reiterating the complexity of the subject and the ongoing debate surrounding the interpretation of UFO sighting patterns, highlighting that while alignments may exist, their underlying cause—whether random or intelligent—remains a subject of intense scrutiny and discussion.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are the statistical analysis of geographical patterns in UFO sightings, the concept of orthoteny, and the debate between randomness and intelligent design in explaining these phenomena. The editorial stance appears to be one of critical inquiry, acknowledging the existence of alignments but expressing skepticism about the definitive conclusions drawn from current methodologies, particularly concerning the BAVIC phenomenon and the limitations of national-scope studies. There is a clear emphasis on the need for rigorous statistical validation and a broader, more inclusive approach to data analysis.

Title: INFO-OVNI
Issue: 21
Volume: 17
Date: October 1978

This issue of INFO-OVNI delves deeply into the statistical analysis of UFO sightings, with a particular focus on the concept of 'orthoteny' – the idea that UFO sightings might align in non-random patterns. The articles explore various statistical and probabilistic models to understand the significance of these observed alignments and to differentiate them from random occurrences.

Statistical Analysis of Alignments

The issue begins by discussing the association of a degree of significance with alignments, defining an index that ranges from 1 when D = 2En to 0 when D = 2πR. It introduces the concept of the 'binomial law' to describe the probability of obtaining 'x' alignments of 'n' observations within a lot of 'N' observations. The average and standard deviation for this binomial law are presented. The text then explores the possibility of simplifying the probability formula by considering the difference (1-p^(n-2)) as approximately 1, especially for larger values of 'n', making the systematic error negligible. For instance, even with a total sample size of 20 (C(20,4)), the systematic error for n=4 observations is less than 0.45%.

Further analysis suggests that the approximation of the binomial law by a 'centered and reduced normal law' (Laplace-Gauss) would allow for quantifying the deviation between theoretical predictions and observational data. However, this is deemed not feasible due to practical limitations. The study then considers approximating the binomial law by a 'Poisson law,' which is deemed optimal when the elementary probability p^(n-2) is very small.

Critiques and Alternative Perspectives

The issue presents a critical examination of the orthoteny theory, citing reasons why its practical application through statistical tables is challenging. One reason is the difficulty in estimating the 'observed average width' of UFO corridors, which is crucial for a reliable statistical analysis. The author suggests that even if a Gauss approximation were possible, the results would only provide 'relative indices of significance' without intrinsic value.

The Argumentation of MENZEL

A section is dedicated to analyzing the arguments of MENZEL against the orthoteny thesis. MENZEL questions the importance of observation positions, finds the 24-hour cycle arbitrary, and suggests that researchers might selectively present observations that fit the orthotenic model while ignoring those that contradict it. The author defends Aimé Michel, suggesting his approach, while perhaps enthusiastic, was not intentionally deceptive. The issue also touches upon MENZEL's proposed maximum corridor width of 5 miles (8.25 km), contrasting it with Aimé Michel's use of up to 10-mile corridors.

GIRAUD's Contributions and Criticisms

Jean GIRAUD's critique, particularly his comparison of UFO phenomena to 'The Rabbit and the Fox,' is discussed. GIRAUD's observation that only about 1% of observations are generally accessible to researchers is noted as potentially too low. The article also examines GIRAUD's interest in Dufour's theory about the correlation between the BAVIC line and the distribution of birthplaces of famous personalities. The author, however, questions the logical basis of this correlation, suggesting it might be too far removed from standard statistical correlations.

Reflections on Manipulation and Psychology

The issue moves into epistemological reflections, considering the possibility of witness manipulation by the phenomenon itself. The idea that UFOs might 'inject' false observations to create 'canulars' is explored. The author expresses some reservation about this theory but acknowledges GIRAUD's point that in cases of canulars, 'mystifiers' often reveal rare details that become 'constants' of the phenomenon for a short period. This leads to speculation about whether humans are being subjected to psychological manipulation, akin to laboratory rats or exploited animals.

Conclusions on Orthoteny

The concluding sections reiterate that orthoteny, as a theory aiming to explain phenomena related to a non-human psyche, does not represent anything tangible in itself and is largely inaccessible. However, the existence of alignments in general, and the BAVIC alignment in particular, is acknowledged. Despite this, these alignments are deemed to be structures arising from chance without particular significance. Orthoteny is described as a 'deceived hope' that offers no real insight or predictive power. The possibility of considering specific alignments with high significance on a particular day is mentioned, but it is doubted whether these would yield generally applicable insights.

Annex I: Information Content of Alignments

Annex I provides an estimation of the 'informational content' of alignments of 3, 4, 5, and 6 observations, based on their probability fluctuations. It calculates the number of bits corresponding to these alignments, showing that as the number of observations in an alignment increases, so does its information content. The BAVIC alignment is analyzed as a case study, with its probability of occurring by chance calculated to be extremely low (1 in 46,728,970 for 6 observations). This is compared to the improbability of a chimpanzee typing the word 'Singe' by chance.

Annex II: Contribution to the Study of Star Networks

Annex II explores the concept of 'star networks' where multiple alignments converge at a single point. It calculates the probability of a point participating in an alignment and the probability of 'x' alignments occurring. The analysis suggests that for an effective sample size of N=75, at least 11 star networks of 10 branches can be expected by chance. The issue concludes by estimating the probability of these star networks themselves being aligned, suggesting that the observed patterns are likely due to chance rather than a deliberate extraterrestrial design.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the rigorous statistical analysis of UFO sightings, the critical evaluation of theories like orthoteny, and the exploration of potential psychological or manipulative aspects of the phenomenon. The editorial stance appears to be one of scientific skepticism, emphasizing the need for objective data and robust statistical methods to avoid misinterpreting random patterns as significant evidence. There is a clear effort to debunk overly speculative theories while acknowledging the existence of unexplained phenomena and the ongoing quest for understanding.

This issue of "LUMIERES DANS LA NUIT" (Lights in the Night), dated July 1, 1901, but with content likely from a later period given the references, focuses heavily on a critical analysis of ufological research methodologies, particularly statistical and geometric approaches to analyzing UFO sightings.

Analysis of Jean-Charles Fumoux's Triangulation Study

The core of the issue is dedicated to dissecting Jean-Charles Fumoux's study, which attempts to find patterns in UFO landing sites by analyzing the formation of isosceles triangles. The author meticulously breaks down Fumoux's methodology, starting with the determination of 'Epsilon' (ε), a measure of the corridor width for alignments, and the 'degree of significance' of an alignment.

Geometric and Statistical Foundations

The article explains that 'Epsilon' is determined arbitrarily, with two methods proposed: one based on observed alignments and another using Euclidean vs. geodesic distances. The latter, while objective, can lead to overly large corridors. The significance of an alignment is quantified using a formula analogous to David Saunders' linearity index, considering the distance of observations from the median line and the number of observations.

Fumoux's Triangulation Method

Fumoux's work involved plotting 78 landing sites from September 27 to October 18, 1954, onto a map. He observed that certain sets of three points formed isosceles triangles. The study then explores the probability of these triangles forming by chance. The author calculates the number of possible triangles and compares it to the number of isosceles triangles found by Fumoux.

Critiques and Probabilistic Assessments

A significant portion of the text is dedicated to questioning Fumoux's conclusions. The author points out several issues:

• Definition of 'Landing Site': The study's criterion for defining a 'landing' (hovering close to the ground or actual contact with traces) is unclear, potentially affecting the data.
• Completeness of Data: The author expresses doubt about whether all landing sites were accounted for, which could skew the results.
• Definition of Isosceles Triangle: The exact criterion used by Fumoux to define equal sides of a triangle is not specified.
• Statistical Significance: The author recalculates probabilities and demonstrates how different precision levels in measurement (e.g., the distance 'Dmax') drastically alter the number of triangles attributable to chance. For instance, with a precision of 7.71 km, 1171 triangles are expected by chance. However, if Dmax is reduced to 1200 km, the probability of chance equality increases significantly, potentially explaining many of Fumoux's findings as random occurrences.
• Fumoux's Formula: The author challenges Fumoux's formula for calculating isosceles triangles, suggesting it may be flawed or based on incorrect assumptions.

The 'Orthoteny' Connection

The issue also references 'orthoteny,' a concept related to the straight-line movement of UFOs, and its potential connection to triangulation. The bibliography lists several works by Aimé Michel and others on this topic, suggesting a broader context of ufological research being explored.

Expert Opinions and Editorial Stance

The article includes a quote from Jacques Scornaux, who is critical of the concept of 'orthoteny,' stating it is long dead but ufologists continue to mourn it. The author of the article expresses a similar cautious stance, highlighting the potential for misinterpreting numerical data and the importance of rigorous methodology. The editorial stance appears to be one of skepticism towards studies that rely heavily on statistical claims without robust, clearly defined methodologies and verifiable data.

Addendum and Further Research

An addendum provides details from a letter by Jean-Charles Fumoux dated November 2, 1978. Fumoux clarifies that his study used a reliable aeronautical map and a sophisticated measurement device with a maximum error of 750m. He also distinguishes between 'canular' (hoax) cases and genuine UFO landing reports. The addendum notes that Fumoux's study was continued, with more points leading to a higher number of isosceles triangles, but the fundamental questions about chance vs. significance remain.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes are the statistical analysis of UFO sightings, the validity of geometric patterns in ufology, and the critical evaluation of research methodologies. The editorial stance is one of caution and skepticism towards claims that appear statistically significant but may be the result of chance or flawed methodology. The issue emphasizes the need for clear definitions, rigorous data collection, and transparent analysis in ufological research.