Tampa Bay Skeptics Report - vol 26 no 1 - INCOMPLETE

Magazine Overview

Title: Tampa Bay Report ONLINE
Issue: Vol. 26 - No. 1
Date: Summer 2013

This issue of the Tampa Bay Report ONLINE, published by the Tampa Bay Skeptics, a special interest group of the Center for Inquiry (CFI), focuses on the complex and evolving discussion surrounding climate change, particularly the phenomenon of a perceived plateau in global temperatures.

Is Consensus Changing on Climate-Change Plateau?

The lead article, by Gary P. Posner, delves into the debate surrounding the apparent 16-year plateau in global temperatures, a topic that has gained attention following reports from the UK's Met Office and publications like The Economist. Posner highlights that while greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise, surface temperatures have remained relatively flat since the late 1990s. An accompanying graph by Ed Hawkins of the University of Reading illustrates how current temperatures are at the lower end of climate model projections, and could fall outside the projected range if the plateau continues.

The article contrasts this observation with the views of NASA scientist David Morrison, who in 2010 characterized the plateau as a 'misinterpretation' based on the anomalously high temperature in 1998, asserting that warming trends from the 1990s have actually continued. Morrison emphasizes the uncertainty in predicting future climate change but warns against denying the current situation.

Further exploring the 'climate-change plateau,' the article references a previous piece by Paul Clifford which argued that such a brief plateau might be misleading. The Economist is cited for positing several explanations: a potential 'temporary lag' between CO2 and temperature rise, the possibility that the 1990s were an anomalous warm period, or that 'climate sensitivity' (how the climate responds to CO2) might be lower than models assume.

A significant point raised is the role of clouds. While general-circulation climate models typically show clouds amplifying global warming, the article discusses Henrik Svensmark's theory that a cyclical reversal in solar activity could lead to cooling. A 2004 study in Nature noted that solar activity over the past 70 years was exceptional, and a recent lull might mean less solar wind deflecting cosmic rays, potentially leading to more cloud formation and cooling. The Economist suggests that some clouds might dampen, rather than amplify, global warming, potentially explaining the hiatus.

The article also touches upon research suggesting that natural variability in temperatures might be greater than previously thought. A paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences linked temperature changes since 1750 to natural factors like Atlantic Ocean sea temperatures, suggesting that anthropogenic global-warming trends might have been overestimated.

Reuters reported on scientists struggling to explain the warming slowdown, with theories including deep oceans absorbing heat, industrial pollution or clouds blocking the sun, or greenhouse gases trapping less heat. A decline in high-atmosphere water vapor is also considered.

Historical Precedents and Future Speculation

The issue references a Forbes op-ed that speculates about the possibility of a new 'Little Ice Age.' This piece links historical warm periods like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (1650-1850) to natural cycles in solar activity. It suggests that current global temperature trends might be driven more by ocean cycles like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) than by rising CO2.

The article also mentions a column in the May/June 2013 Skeptical Inquirer, signed by members of New Mexicans for Science and Reason, which disputes the existence of the temperature plateau, asserting that global warming is continuing even faster than previously estimated.

James Hansen, formerly NASA's lead climate scientist, is quoted as predicting a significant rise in global temperatures due to an impending El Nino phase. However, he also acknowledged that the '5-year running mean of global temperature has been flat for the past decade,' meaning a flat average over the past 15 years.

The author concludes by suggesting that despite differing views on the causes and effects of climate change, the scientific community may be converging on the 'undeniable fact' that the mean global surface temperature has been flat for about 15 years, and the reasons are not fully understood.

Snippets: Paranormal and Political Beliefs

The 'Snippets' section includes two brief items. The first describes the Plant City Paranormal Research team, led by Officer L.T. Cochran of the Hillsborough County Sheriff's Office, which uses electronic equipment and prayer to address paranormal disturbances. The second snippet reports on a Public Policy Polling survey, noting that a small percentage of Americans believe in shape-shifting reptilian people controlling the world, while a larger group believes in a secretive power elite. It also humorously notes that some questions had to be semi-serious to elicit serious responses.

Florida Skeptics Forms as IIG-Florida Fizzles

This section details the efforts to establish an Independent Investigations Group (IIG) in Florida, affiliated with the Center for Inquiry (CFI). Martha Keller, founder of Pinellas County Skeptics, had hoped to spearhead this initiative to promote skeptical investigations. Despite initial interest from various skeptical groups, the effort is currently on hold due to Keller moving out of state. On a positive note, a statewide Florida Skeptics website-based group has formed and is seeking writers.

Personnel Changes and Tributes

Rick O'Keefe Replaces Jack Robinson on TBS Executive Council: Jack Robinson has resigned as Vice Chairman of TBS due to family responsibilities but will remain as a Consultant. Rick O'Keefe, Branch Coordinator of the Center For Inquiry-Tampa Bay, will replace him on the Executive Council.

James W. Moseley (1931-2012): The publication notes the passing of James Moseley, publisher of the newsletter 'Saucer Smear,' who died in November. Moseley had contributed articles to TBS Report over the years.

Miles W. Hardy (1926-2013): The issue also reports the death of Miles W. Hardy, who served as TBS's vice chairman from 1988 until 2006. Hardy was a clinical psychologist and professor at the University of South Florida, and was noted for playing an integral role in TBS's credibility with the media.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The primary theme of this issue is the critical examination of scientific claims, particularly concerning climate change, from a skeptical perspective. The publication highlights dissenting views and uncertainties within the scientific community, questioning prevailing narratives and encouraging a more nuanced understanding of complex phenomena. The editorial stance appears to favor evidence-based reasoning and a cautious approach to widely accepted scientific conclusions, as evidenced by the focus on the temperature plateau and the exploration of alternative theories. The inclusion of snippets on paranormal investigations and public belief surveys further reinforces the magazine's commitment to applying skeptical inquiry to a broad range of topics.