Tampa Bay Skeptics Report - vol 25 no 3 - INCOMPLETE

Magazine Overview

This issue of TBS Report Online, Volume 25, No. 3, from Winter 2012-13, features an article titled "Revisiting Global Warming" by Gary P. Posner. The magazine is published by Tampa Bay Skeptics, a special interest group of the Center for Inquiry (CFI).

Revisiting Global Warming by Gary P. Posner

Gary P. Posner begins by noting the irony of discussing global warming during a cold Tampa Bay winter. He revisits his own skeptical stance on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) from a 2009 essay, where he expressed doubts about a man-made global warming crisis and emphasized the importance of scientific skepticism. He recounts how the Center for Inquiry's Office of Public Policy (OPP) in Washington disseminated an announcement about an event exposing 'fake' scientists who oppose global warming. This was followed by a Skeptical Inquirer article that, while acknowledging some well-known scientists among the dissenters, highlighted that 80% of a list of 687 'dissenting scientists' had not published peer-reviewed climate research. Posner questions the credibility of CFI's own 'Credibility Project' by contrasting it with the assumption that a significant portion of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientists may not have published climate research.

He references a statement by Professor William Schlesinger, a lead author of an IPCC report, who guessed that only about 20% of IPCC scientists have dealings with climate. Posner suggests that if this is accurate, then roughly 80% of IPCC scientists have no professional climate dealings, while many of the 'dissenting scientists' do, even without peer-reviewed publications. This raises questions about the relative 'credibility' of these groups.

Posner then discusses the 'Senate minority report' from December 2008, released by Senator James Inhofe, and notes that while some dismiss Bible believers as 'anti-science,' a distinction should be made between being anti-science and being God-fearing.

He delves into the 'Climate Wars' described by Skeptical Inquirer, detailing a harsh rebuttal to Robert Sheaffer's critical piece that labeled AGW skeptics as 'science-challenged' and promoters of 'disinformation.' Sheaffer likened the debate to historical scientific controversies where 'defenders ... fell victim to a politically driven perversion of science.' Posner quotes Sheaffer stating that when a new theory finds fierce support from those of certain political persuasions, and critics are labeled as stupid or evil, it indicates 'advocacy science.' Sheaffer also noted that the AGW debate exemplifies science's self-correcting nature.

Posner shares his evolving thoughts on AGW, initially viewing it as an extraordinary claim requiring proof under the 'null' hypothesis. However, he admits the 'appeal to authority' is weighing on him, making him consider if non-AGW might now be the more extraordinary hypothesis.

He discusses Judith Curry, head of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, who is described as an honest scientist free of partisan agenda but who acknowledges uncertainties in climate models and the impact of politics on climate science. Curry's views have led to criticism from colleagues, with Michael Mann suggesting she isn't 'helping the cause.'

Posner addresses the claim of a warming trend, citing a London's Daily Mail article based on a Met Office report suggesting global warming had stopped 16 years prior, with no discernible rise in global temperatures from 1997 to August 2012. He quotes Curry stating that natural variability has been shown to dominate the greenhouse warming effect over the past two decades, and that attribution of warming and future projections need to consider this variability.

The Met Office, while acknowledging the 20th-century warming trend, also proposed a new analysis of land surface air temperature data to address why many scientists are AGW skeptics. Posner notes that while skeptics readily demand 'critical scrutiny' for questionable claims, Judith Curry's advocacy for such rigor regarding AGW consensus claims has led to accusations of heresy.

Regarding Superstorm Sandy, Posner refutes the assertion by Al Gore and others that its ferocity was due to AGW. He explains that such hurricanes are not unprecedented and that Sandy's formation was due to meteorological factors like a high-pressure area, not global warming.

Posner concludes that while the planet's temperature rose in the 20th century, he remains uncertain if the current plateau signifies a continuation of warming or a significant cooling due to natural cycles like oceanic oscillations and solar activity. He humorously suggests that if cooling occurs, scientists and others who promoted AGW might need to 'cover their faces' with eggs.

Local IIG Update by Martha Keller

Martha Keller reports on a meeting held on November 10th by members of the Tampa Bay Skeptics, Suncoast Skeptics, and Pinellas County Skeptics. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss plans for developing a local branch of the Independent Investigations Group (IIG) in Florida. IIG, affiliated with the Center for Inquiry (CFI), aims to promote critical thinking and skeptical investigations into the paranormal. A $50,000 prize is offered by CFI to anyone who can demonstrate paranormal abilities. The meeting involved discussions about a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for affiliate membership, and concerns about the MOU were addressed after talks with Jim Underdown from IIG-Los Angeles. The groups are seeking interested members, with an anticipated annual fee of $40, to move forward with establishing this new group.

Snippets

The 'Snippets' section includes a commentary on Dr. Eben Alexander's book 'Proof of Heaven: A Neurosurgeon's Journey into the Afterlife.' Alexander, after a severe bout with bacterial meningitis, described an experience of consciousness traveling to another level. He felt compelled to share this experience with the public, challenging the scientific dogma that the brain produces consciousness. The commentary questions Alexander's decision to reach out to the public rather than submitting a scholarly article for peer review.

Another snippet references a blog post by D.J. Grothe, President of the James Randi Educational Foundation, about eBay's announcement to prohibit certain items related to psychic services, such as spells, curses, and healing sessions. However, items like crystal healing skulls and enchanted rings for weight loss, dowsing rods, and 'Trifield meters' will still be allowed, prompting a comment on their 'questionable value.'

Letter to the Editor

Paul Jenkins from Providence, RI, writes in response to past articles about John Monti, a self-proclaimed 'psychic detective.' Jenkins recounts a story from a friend who worked with Monti as a dishwasher in 1981, where Monti claimed to have worked for the National Enquirer and predicted the winning score spread on two Monday Night Football games. Jenkins and his friend attempted to test Monti's abilities in other legal areas like dog and horse racing and the lottery, but Monti could not predict the lottery or connect with horses, and eventually quit his job and vanished. Jenkins concludes that Monti is not a detective and has no special gift, noting his heterochromia (one green eye and one blue eye).

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are scientific skepticism, particularly concerning the debate around anthropogenic global warming (AGW), and the critical examination of claims related to the paranormal. The editorial stance, as presented by Gary P. Posner, is one of critical inquiry, questioning established scientific consensus when evidence or methodology appears flawed, and highlighting the potential for political influence in scientific discourse. The magazine also promotes critical thinking through the local Independent Investigations Group (IIG) and skepticism towards paranormal claims, as evidenced by the 'Snippets' and 'Letter to the Editor' sections.