TBS Report Online

Magazine Overview

Title: TBS Report Online
Issue: Vol. 16 - No. 2
Date: Fall 2003
Publisher: Tampa Bay Skeptics
Document Type: Magazine Issue

What's the Probability That X Could Occur Just by Chance?

This article by Jack Robinson delves into the calculation of probabilities, using a 'Skep Test' conducted by Rani Kottiath and Dana Smith at the Atheist Alliance International Convention as a primary example. The test involved a challenger attempting to telepathically identify the suit of ten cards drawn from a standard deck. The expected score for a non-psychic individual was 2 or 3 hits out of 10, given a 1/4 probability for each correct guess.

The article highlights a reported performance by James 'The Amazing' Randi, who allegedly achieved 8 out of 10 correct guesses, a feat with a calculated probability of 1 in 2,400. Robinson breaks down the probability calculation, explaining that simply calculating (1/4)^8 is incorrect because it overlooks the incorrect guesses. The probability of an incorrect guess is 3/4, so for 8 correct and 2 incorrect guesses, the probability is (1/4)^8 x (3/4)^2, which is approximately 1/116,500. However, this is not the final answer as it assumes the correct guesses were sequential. The actual probability needs to account for the number of ways 2 incorrect guesses can occur within 10 trials, which is calculated using combinations (10C2 = 45). This leads to a probability of (1/116,500) x 45, or approximately 1/2,590 for exactly 8 correct guesses. Furthermore, the article explains that to determine if a score is statistically significant, one must also consider the probability of scoring higher (9 or 10 hits), summing these probabilities to arrive at the 1 in 2,400 figure for scoring 8 or more hits.

Robinson questions whether Randi's performance was purely by chance, suggesting that skepticism requires rigorous control of experimental conditions, hinting at the possibility of conjuring or other factors influencing the outcome. He recommends Warren Weaver's book "Lady Luck: The Theory of Probability" for further reading and offers assistance to readers with probability problems.

Chairman's Corner: "Been There, Done That"

In his column, Chairman Terry A. Smiljanich reflects on the transient nature of fads and how they evolve to maintain public interest. He applies this concept to the UFO phenomenon, which he states has been ongoing for fifty years, evolving from early sightings like Kenneth Arnold's 'saucer' objects to the Roswell incident and abduction stories.

Smiljanich then focuses on Richard Hoagland and his theories concerning the 'Face on Mars.' He recounts how Hoagland wrote a book in 1987 exploring alleged mathematical relationships between Martian 'pyramids' and an ancient Martian city, suggesting alien presence. The article notes that subsequent clearer photographs from the Mars Global Surveyor in 1998 and 2001 have revealed the 'Face' to be a natural hill. Hoagland's continued theories are discussed, including his appearance on the Coast to Coast A.M. radio show where he linked the Egyptian Sphinx and the constellation Orion, suggesting a NASA conspiracy infiltrated by an ancient Egyptian priesthood. He also interpreted a fire during an Apollo capsule countdown that killed three astronauts as a ritual sacrifice.

Smiljanich concludes that while the 'Face on Mars' fad may eventually fade, the broader UFO question remains open, posing the question of what could follow the idea of 'invisible' spaceships.

Snippets

This section presents several brief news items:

• Afterlife Telegram Service: Paul Kinsella of New Athens, Illinois, has launched a service where messages for the deceased are memorized by a terminally ill volunteer 'messenger' and pledged to be delivered to the intended recipient. The service costs $5 per word, with proceeds going to charity or the messenger's medical expenses. The money is refunded if the messenger dies within a year, unless they die but fail to deliver the message. The service claims to offer 'delivery attempts' rather than guaranteed delivery. The only paying customer mentioned is a Washington Post columnist sending a message to Adolf Hitler.
• Psychic Scam: An unnamed 31-year-old financial planner in Tampa reported losing over $2,300 to a 'psychic.' After a Tarot card reading, she paid $775 for herbs, healing oils, and a magic candle, which did not help. She then paid an additional $1,600 for more services with no effect. The 'psychic' had guaranteed satisfaction but disappeared without a forwarding address.
• TBS Media Inquiries: In mid-July, an assistant producer from Univision contacted TBS regarding a special project on 'miracles.' One subject covered was a likeness of the Virgin Mary appearing in a third-story window of a hospital in Milton, Massachusetts, similar to the 'apparition' in Clearwater. The Boston Globe reported that the image was a chemical deposit caused by sealant in the window. Jack Robinson referred Univision to the New England Skeptical Society. Additionally, a producer from Lion Television contacted TBS about a series on 'Paranormal Investigations' for The Learning Channel, with Gary Posner slated for an interview.

Letters to the Editor / Readers' Forum

Jeff Lee from Tampa writes to express his enjoyment of the Tampa Bay Skeptics' website and personal site, having discovered them via Fark.com. He inquires whether the upcoming "Between Meetings" Dinner/Snack/Discussion is open to prospective members or only paid members. The editor (identified as G.P.) responds that all functions are open to anyone wishing to attend.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around skepticism, critical thinking, and the scientific examination of extraordinary claims. The Tampa Bay Skeptics, through its publications, consistently aims to debunk pseudoscience, analyze phenomena through the lens of probability and scientific methodology, and expose fraudulent or unsubstantiated claims. The editorial stance is clearly one of promoting rational inquiry and questioning claims that lack empirical evidence, whether they pertain to psychic abilities, UFOs, or alleged miracles. The publication encourages readers to apply critical thinking to popular culture and paranormal narratives.