Tampa Bay Skeptics Report - vol 12 no 3 - INCOMPLETE

Magazine Overview

Title: TBS Report Online
Issue: Vol. 12 - No. 3
Date: Winter 1999-2000
Publisher: Tampa Bay Skeptics
Country: USA

This issue of TBS Report Online features a detailed account of a "$1,000 Challenge" conducted by the Tampa Bay Skeptics with James D. Moore Jr., a dowser who claimed the ability to detect buried gold and silver using a plastic divining rod. The magazine also delves into the nature of psychic mediums, the practice of "cold reading," and other paranormal claims, offering a skeptical perspective.

TBS "$1,000 Challenge" Yields Chance Results

The lead article, "TBS \"$1,000 Challenge\" yields chance results (once again)" by Gary P. Posner, recounts the test performed on James D. Moore Jr. The challenge, originally scheduled for September 10th but delayed due to breaking news, was conducted on November 1st. Moore, who marketed a "Crazy Rod" for $39.95, claimed he could detect precious metals. The test involved 23 boxes, 11 containing one-ounce gold coins and 12 containing aluminum wafers. Moore, using his divining rod, attempted to identify the boxes with gold. The probability of guessing correctly all 23 times was 1 in 8,388,608, while the probability of guessing any single box correctly was 1 in 2.

Moore was accompanied by his girlfriend and friends, while TBS was represented by Terry Smiljanich, Miles Hardy, videographer Glenn Thompson, and the author, Gary P. Posner. Prior to the test, Posner explained TBS's expectation of a 50% success rate, which Moore dismissed, confidently predicting 100% accuracy or 100% incorrect results if his abilities were not genuine. The boxes were made of lead and filled with specially processed sand to shield the contents from extraneous influences. Moore took approximately 10-15 seconds per box to "divine" its contents.

Upon completion, the boxes were opened. Moore had correctly identified 12 boxes and missed 11, exactly matching the expected outcome of random guesswork. Moore attempted to rationalize his failure by claiming "magnetic fields" had scrambled the boxes, blaming a friend for not informing TBS about this beforehand. He also suggested the boxes would have performed better if they had been in the Green Room for two days prior. Despite the disagreement, no hard feelings were expressed, and TBS agreed to consider a retest.

"Hot and Cold"

This section, also by Gary Posner, discusses a recent MSNBC "Crosstalk" program featuring an HBO documentary on talking with the dead. The panelists, including Posner, debated the evidence presented by spiritualists. While some, like host Linda Ellerbee, were swayed by the seemingly accurate readings, Posner argued for more controlled tests and definitive proof. The article explores various explanations for mediums' apparent accuracy, including:

1. Cold Reading: Making educated guesses, steering towards positive responses, and exploiting the subject's desire to believe. This includes using common knowledge (e.g., death in the family) and editing out misses.
2. Pre-reading Information Gathering: Using the internet or "private eye" websites to obtain detailed background information on a subject before a reading.
3. Self-Delusion: Subjects with a strong emotional need to believe may interpret suggestions as accurate.
4. "Plant" Subjects: Using confederates in the audience to provide information or create a desired effect.
5. Genuine Psychic Phenomena: Acknowledging the possibility but emphasizing the need for rigorous proof under controlled conditions, citing the $1,000 award from Tampa Bay Skeptics and the $1,000,000 prize from the James Randi Educational Foundation.

Posner concludes that without incontrovertible evidence, it is sensible to withhold belief in mediums' abilities.

Snippets

This section contains several brief news items:

• Cassadaga, Florida: The town, known for its spiritualists, is anticipating the new millennium with apprehension. Some seers predict a more spiritual era, while others foresee 12 years of natural disasters. Ernie Sekunna plans to move to North Carolina to avoid a predicted "cleansing period" starting May 5, 2000.
• "Skunk Ape" Expeditions: The Collier County Tourist Development Council initially approved a $44,000 grant for David Shealy, an expert on the "Bigfoot of the Everglades," to fund expeditions. However, the Collier County Commission voted 5-0 to quash the funding, with Commissioner Jim Carter stating it was not a proper use of tax funds. Shealy expressed disappointment.
• Myra Taylor, Psychic: An article by Jeff Klinkenberg in the Fort Myers News-Press discussed Myra Taylor, a psychic from Reddick, Florida, who claims to communicate telepathically with people and animals for $35 per session. An anecdote is shared about Taylor telling a horse its rider had died, and how she lied to the horse about the situation.
• Shamanism Follow-up: TBS executive council member Jim Lett is working with anthropologist William Lyon to develop a protocol for scientifically testing Dr. Lyon's shaman. The draft protocol is being sent to the James Randi Educational Foundation for input, with the potential for a formal test offering TBS's $1,000 and JREF's $1,000,000.
• Dr. Dossey and DCBD: A brief mention of an item posted elsewhere.

Letter to the Editor

Peter Geske from Daytona Beach writes about his past familiarity with CSICOP and the Skeptical Inquirer, which led him to discover the Bay Area Skeptics. He recounts attending meetings where he witnessed a "mathematical dog" and "psychic surgery." Geske describes the "mathematical dog" presentation as a sad affair, where the elderly owner genuinely believed his dog had a special gift, despite numerous errors. He notes that the skeptics showed kindness and did not exploit the situation.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around skepticism towards paranormal claims, the importance of scientific testing and evidence, and the critical examination of pseudoscientific phenomena. The Tampa Bay Skeptics' stance is consistently one of demanding rigorous proof and offering rational explanations for claims of psychic abilities, dowsing, and mediumship. The publication aims to educate readers about critical thinking and to debunk unsubstantiated claims, while also acknowledging the possibility of genuine phenomena if proven under controlled conditions.