Skeptical Eye - Vol 11 No 4 - 1999

Magazine Overview

This issue of the National Capital Area Skeptical Eye, Volume 11, Number 4, dated December 1999, focuses on skepticism towards paranormal claims and pseudoscientific practices. It features articles on a 'Ghostbusting 101' seminar, the controversial 'Bible Codes,' and a report from a UFO symposium, alongside a critical review of a 'Natural Living Expo'.

Ghostbusting 101

The issue opens with an article by Helen E. Hester-Ossa, detailing the NCAS-sponsored 'Ghostbusting 101' seminar held in Leesburg, Virginia, on October 16, 1999. The seminar aimed to examine ghost hunting and psychic phenomena critically. NCAS president Paul Jaffe welcomed attendees, initiating the event with a lighthearted anecdote. Chip Denman presented a history of spiritualism, pinpointing its start to March 31, 1848, with the Fox sisters' trick involving thumping and an apple tied to a string. He noted that belief in an afterlife dates back to Neanderthals, but populist belief in spirits began with the Fox sisters. Denman contextualized this period with advancements like Morse's telegraph, Andrew Jackson Davis's 'channeling,' the California gold rush, and the emerging understanding of electricity and magnetism. He also touched upon mesmerism and Ben Franklin's involvement in a committee that concluded many phenomena occurred in the mind. The article includes a quote from a letter by Addison Niles in 1846, describing a clairvoyant's examination of a neighbor's head. The Fox sisters' method of communication involved knocking, attracting large crowds. Their move to Rochester and subsequent charging for seances at Corinthian Hall, as well as their employment by P.T. Barnum, are mentioned. A committee later debunked their claims, stating they were cracking their knees. Despite confessions and debunking, belief persisted, with over 2,000 mediums claiming contact with the spirit world by 1852. Abraham Lincoln is quoted as attending a seance. The article also previews future topics, including 'Ghosts and Electromagnetic Anomalies' and 'High-tech Communications with the Hereafter.'

The Bible Codes

Marvin V. Zelkowitz contributes an article on 'The Bible Codes,' discussing Michael Drosnin's 1997 book which claimed hidden messages in the Hebrew Bible, including predictions of Yitzhak Rabin's assassination. Drosnin also found links to other events like the JFK assassination and the 1929 stock market crash. The article questions whether the Bible was divinely dictated or humanly written, and how prophetic messages could be encoded. It explains the concept of Equidistant Letter Sequences (ELS), based on earlier work by Witztum, Rips, and Rosenberg. Drosnin's method involved finding words within the entire Bible text using convenient skip distances, unlike the 1994 paper's focus on minimal skip distances. The article presents a critical analysis of Drosnin's method, citing six points of criticism: bad formal logic (correlation does not imply causation), Garbage In-Garbage Out (uncertainty about the original Hebrew text and its variations), bad translation (misinterpretations of passages), poor statistical analysis (arbitrary selection of words and dates), failure to follow the 1994 study's protocol, and common coincidences. It references a May 1999 article in Statistical Science by Brendan McKay and others that analyzed the 1994 paper, suggesting that the results were achieved by selecting optimal definitions and dates, raising questions about whether this was by chance or design. The article concludes that while 'Bible code research' continues, with potential references to the Y2K bug, the explanation for such findings remains elusive, and believers will persist.

Natural, Shmatural, These People Scare Me!

Sharlene Deskins writes about her experience at the 'Natural Living Expo' in Bethesda, Maryland, on September 26, 1999. Accompanied by Paul Jaffe, she found the expo filled with dubious claims and a lack of interest in reality, featuring practices like acupuncture, chiropractic, psychic readings, and aura photography. Deskins expresses fear and a desire to understand alternative beliefs rather than dismiss them outright. She recounts an attempt to discuss astrology with a practitioner who claimed to have predicted an earthquake but could not explain why she didn't prevent it. The article lists terms encountered, such as 'shamanic,' 'reiki,' 'allopathy,' and 'chakras.' The concept of chakras as energy sources in the body and healing touch, based on waving hands over chakras to balance them, is explained, though no proof is offered. Deskins notes the high prices associated with these 'healing practices,' suggesting that spiritual health is not accessible on a budget. She describes the attendees as 'sad lonely people' seeking happiness through irrationality and looking for shortcuts to prosperity. The author questions why she should care about these beliefs, noting that while not necessarily harmful, irrationality can lead to poor decisions that affect society, citing examples of conspiracy theories and genocidal acts. Deskins concludes she would not attend another such expo, finding the experience exhausting and ultimately a waste of time.

A Weekend at the Washington MUFON Symposium

Scott Snell reports on a weekend at the 30th-Anniversary Mutual UFO Network (MUFON) Symposium held at the Hyatt Regency Crystal City from July 2-4. After a harrowing week at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center dealing with the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory, Snell attended the event. The symposium began with a presentation by Richard H. Hall, a veteran UFO investigator, on 'Fifty Years of UFO Politics and Discomfort Zones.' Hall attributed scientific apathy towards UFOs to poor presentation by UFOlogists and the 'vanity, ignorance of data, and fear of ridicule' of scientists. He argued that there are plenty of 'hard-core' UFO cases. Hall provided a chronological overview of UFO history from the late 1940s to the mid-1960s, discussing NICAP's efforts to counter the U.S. Air Force's Project Blue Book. He mentioned the 'Socorro case' of 1964 as an example of a baffling UFO incident. Hall also discussed the University of Colorado's Condon report, criticizing it as unscientific and influenced by 'deep prejudices.' He hopes to publish a sequel to 'The UFO Evidence' covering cases from 1964 to the present, believing that structured lights, colors, motions, and flight patterns of UFOs hold clues to their physics. He lamented the non-acceptance of UFOlogy as a science, calling it 'revolutionary' and bordering on the supernatural.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are the critical examination of paranormal claims and pseudoscientific practices, the importance of scientific skepticism, and the analysis of methodologies used in investigating unusual phenomena. The editorial stance of the National Capital Area Skeptical Eye is clearly one of promoting critical thinking and scientific inquiry, challenging unsubstantiated beliefs, and questioning the validity of claims that lack empirical evidence. The magazine actively debunks or critically analyzes topics ranging from spiritualism and alleged psychic phenomena to the controversial 'Bible Codes' and UFO sightings, advocating for evidence-based reasoning.

Title: Skeptical Eye
Issue: Vol. 11, No. 4
Date: 1999
Publisher: National Capital Area Skeptics (NCAS)
Country: USA

This issue of Skeptical Eye features a collection of articles and presentations from a MUFON symposium, exploring various UFO-related phenomena, witness accounts, and investigations. The content ranges from discussions on scientific acceptance of UFOs to detailed analyses of specific cases, including alleged abductions and radar anomalies.

MUFON Symposium Presentations

Scientific Acceptance and UFOlogy

The issue begins with a continuation of a discussion on the scientific community's approach to UFOs. A speaker, whose name is not fully legible but is implied to be a proponent of scientific inquiry, argues that while the physics of UFOs might not be fundamentally different from our current understanding, accepting them could advance science significantly. The speaker notes the political sensitivity of UFOlogy and the media's tendency to frame it as a sociological phenomenon. They criticize the self-reinforcing circular reasoning that blinds established institutions to potential truths and suggest that UFOlogists must maintain scientific principles to avoid contaminating the field with non-scientific beliefs.

Jenny Randles: A Walk on the Wild Side

British UFOlogist Jenny Randles presented an overview of various UFO-related anecdotes. Her talk covered topics such as energy fields, doorways to other realities, telepathic contact with ETs, and Men In Black (MIB) cases. Randles posits that MIBs in the United Kingdom are likely from the British Ministry of Defence, tasked with playing eccentric roles to ensure witnesses remain silent about their UFO experiences. She suggests their goal is to leave witnesses confused, and that if witnesses comply, the case is suppressed, while going public risks tarnishing their credibility.

Kelly Cahill: 1993 Abduction Case

Kelly Cahill recounted her personal experience of a 1993 abduction near Melbourne, Australia. She claims that she and several other witnesses, driving in separate cars, were abducted by a huge UFO. Cahill stated that physical evidence from the incident was found on the abducted individuals and in soil and plant samples from the site. She expressed disappointment at the lack of interest from mainstream science in her case, despite multiple witnesses and physical traces.

Robert Swiatek: Washington National Airport Radar UFOs (1952)

Robert Swiatek, an examiner at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, discussed the 1952 radar UFO incidents at Washington National Airport. Swiatek's presentation largely rehashed familiar aspects of the case. The Civil Aeronautics Administration (CAA, now FAA) investigated and concluded in 1953 that the radar contacts were caused by radar beams reflecting off a temperature inversion layer. Swiatek, however, dismissed this explanation, arguing it did not account for 'ground clutter' moving at high speeds or correlating with visual sightings. He highlighted passages from the CAA report that suggested previous reports of sudden accelerations might be due to controller error, but he did not mention specific details that might explain the 1952 events.

Dr. Bruce Maccabee: Photo Analysis and Crashed Saucer Incidents

Dr. Bruce Maccabee, a research physicist, presented on two main topics: a photographic analysis and a 1950 crashed saucer incident.

#### Missing Time Discovered Through Photo Analysis

Maccabee discussed a case involving two photos taken by a woman in Phoenix. The woman claimed to have taken the photos on February 6, 1995, but only sought analysis in December 1997. Her story involved seeing three lights in a triangular formation and taking two exposures as one light faded. Maccabee's analysis revealed significant inconsistencies: the skyline in the two photos was markedly different, suggesting a considerable time gap between exposures, despite the witness's claim of quick succession. Further investigation, including asking the woman to photograph the skyline over an evening, revealed that the skyline remained consistent until around 11 PM. Crucially, when Maccabee requested the original negatives, he discovered the two photos were from different film rolls, indicating a significant fabrication or misrepresentation of the event. Despite these inconsistencies, Maccabee concluded the witness was credible and did not believe it was a hoax, suggesting she might have experienced 'missing time' and forgotten taking interim photos or changing film.

#### The 1950 Crashed Saucer Tale and UFO Report

This section, presented as a cover story, investigates the notorious tale of a crashed saucer near the Texas-Mexico border, often linked to the Roswell incident. Dr. Bruce Maccabee presented a paper on an incident dated December 6, 1950. The article correlates three events: a December 6 'Air Alert' of New England USAF installations due to radar UFOs, an urgent FBI memo on December 8 indicating high alert for flying saucer data, and the Texas crashed-saucer story reported by a retired USAF colonel in 1977. The article confirms the first two events as well-documented, noting that President Truman and Dean Acheson mentioned the 'Air Alert,' which was concerned about a potential Soviet air attack. Maccabee points out inconsistencies in Acheson's recollection regarding the location of the activity (Alaska vs. Washington D.C. area). The article notes that the radar contacts were attributed to atmospheric effects or geese, but a 'friendly flight' was also mentioned. Maccabee estimated UFO speeds between 300 and 1,200 mph. He stressed that the military would not dispatch interceptors for bogus radar contacts, yet this occurred in the Washington D.C. incidents less than two years later, amidst Korean War tensions. The article questions the timeline of the 1950 crashed saucer story, noting that the base mentioned (Dyess Air Force Base) did not open until 1953, suggesting the December 1950 date might have been 'grafted' by UFOlogists to correlate with the FBI memo. It also suggests that the controversial 'Eisenhower Briefing Document' might have been falsified to align with this untenable date.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The Skeptical Eye, as indicated by its title and content, maintains a critical and analytical stance towards UFO phenomena. The magazine prioritizes evidence-based investigation and scrutinizes witness accounts, official reports, and alleged documents. Themes explored include the challenges of gaining scientific acceptance for UFO research, the potential for misinterpretation or fabrication in witness testimonies and photographic evidence, and the historical context of government interest in UFOs. The editorial stance appears to favor skepticism and rigorous examination, questioning claims that lack substantiation and highlighting inconsistencies in narratives, while still acknowledging the possibility of genuine unexplained phenomena. The publication also seems to advocate for transparency and the release of government documents related to UFOs.