Skeptical Eye - Vol 11 No 3 - 1999

Magazine Overview

Title: National Capital Area SKEPTICAL EYE
Issue: Vol. 11, No. 3
Date: 1999
Publisher: National Capital Area Skeptics (NCAS)
Country: USA
Language: English
ISSN: 1063-2077

This issue of the Skeptical Eye covers the National Capital Area Skeptics' 'Millennium Madness' weekend retreat held in Fredericksburg, Virginia, on May 8-9, 1999. The magazine explores various aspects of the approaching millennium, including societal anxieties, marketing schemes, and the rise of skeptical organizations.

Millennium Madness Weekend Recap

Sheila Gibson reports on the NCAS 'Millennium Madness' weekend retreat, which focused on the 'next century' and how society was handling the end of the current one. The retreat addressed fears of the Y2K bug, apocalyptic predictions, and entrepreneurial ventures. Gibson notes that NCAS has never profited from its workshops. She highlights the quality of the attendee binders, which included relevant articles and practical information.

Gibson also reflects on her personal growth, now chairing the Massachusetts branch of the New England Skeptics Society (NESS) and observing Paul Jaffe's leadership as NCAS president. The conference served as a 'training ground' for her.

Letters

Gary Stone, NCAS VP, announces that the NCAS website won the 'Mystic Site of the Web Award of Excellence' in the 'Unusual Links' category. The award, intended for the Mystical and Occult Communities, recognized the NCAS site for its design and its resourcefulness. The article details how to find the award on the 'Mystic Site of the Web' website and provides a summary of the NCAS organization, emphasizing its role in promoting critical thinking and scientific understanding against paranormal and fringe-science claims.

Prez Sez

NCAS President Paul Jaffe addresses the readership, noting the media's attention to NCAS and its various presentations. He encourages members to share instances where NCAS has been featured in the media. Jaffe also seeks members with specialized knowledge in paranormal or fringe-science topics to assist NCAS in responding to media inquiries. He highlights the upcoming 'Ghostbusting 101: Spirits, Spooks & Skeptics' conference and mentions a recent meeting with members to gather feedback for future projects.

Jaffe also points to the availability of the Department of Energy's report on cold fusion online and invites readers to subscribe to the 'Shadow of a Doubt' newsletter and participate in the ncas-share online forum.

Alternative Medicine and Other Trends

This section discusses the 'Millennium Madness' retreat, noting that alternative medicine led the votes for trends on the rise. Other prominent trends included 'UFOs and alien abductions' and 'PBS using new age flakes to raise money.' The increase in organized skeptical groups was also identified. Astrology and 'statements to the effect that society is degenerate' were considered steady, while psychic hotlines and recovered memories were seen as declining.

Millennium Marketing & Money Making

Paul Jaffe explores the extensive marketing and schemes surrounding the year 2000 and the Y2K bug. He discusses how fears and desires are being exploited, from survivalist supplies and Y2K-themed books like 'The Y2K Personal Survival Guide' to products marketed with a Y2K angle, such as generators and water filters. Jaffe notes the irony of the computer industry shortening 'Year 2000' to Y2K. He also points out that while some millennium-related products were heavily discounted by April, others, like commemorative items and luxury travel packages, are in high demand.

The article highlights the booming countdown clock industry and the elaborate millennium celebrations being planned worldwide, with countries like Israel and Egypt promoting themselves as destinations. It also mentions expensive travel options, such as Concorde tours, and warns that the 'real' turn of the millennium is in 2001.

Rocky Road to Skepticism

Stephanie A. Hall describes a workshop led by Rita Malone at the NCAS retreat, focusing on the journeys people take to become skeptics. Hall, an ethnographer, was interested in the backgrounds of skeptics. Participants shared stories about their religious upbringings and how they came to question or abandon those beliefs. Many found it difficult to find like-minded individuals after changing their beliefs. Hall reflects on her own experience, having grown up in a Unitarian background with less conflict during her belief changes.

Religious Cults & the Coming Millennium

John Knapp delivers a keynote address on religious cults and the millennium. He shares his personal experience of being in the Maharishi Mahesh Yogi's Transcendental Meditation program for 23 years, leaving due to love and marriage. Knapp categorizes millennial groups, including apocalyptic Christians, and mentions groups focused on aliens and UFOs, such as Heaven's Gate. He discusses 'Doomsday Cults' and the psychological manipulation involved in cult recruitment, emphasizing that people often join during times of need. Knapp explains how cults break down personality, encourage donations, and sever ties with the outside world. He also touches on how he left the cult and the financial worth of the Maharishi. Knapp advises protecting children by insulating them from the world or educating them.

Skeptics Background Questionnaire

Stephanie A. Hall presents a questionnaire as part of her ethnographic research into local skeptical groups. She explains that the survey aims to gather general information about members' backgrounds and interests to aid in planning future programs and membership drives. The results will be shared with the NCAS membership. Hall plans to survey at least three different groups and will present her preliminary findings at the American Folklore Society Annual Meeting.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The magazine consistently promotes critical thinking and scientific inquiry, serving as a resource against paranormal and fringe-science claims. The editorial stance is clearly skeptical, evidenced by the magazine's title and the content of its articles, which analyze and often debunk pseudoscientific beliefs and societal anxieties, particularly those surrounding the millennium and Y2K. The publication encourages active participation from its members and aims to educate the public on rational thought processes.

Title: The Millennium or Y2K Bug
Issue: Vol. 11, No. 3
Date: 1999
Publisher: National Capital Area Skeptics (NCAS)

This issue of Skeptical Eye delves into the multifaceted Y2K (Year 2000) bug, exploring its technical origins, potential societal impacts, and the varied reactions it has generated. Alongside this central theme, the magazine features articles on skepticism in practice, examining seemingly pseudoscientific activities like dowsing, and historical perspectives on figures like Sir Isaac Newton and the evolution debate.

The Millennium or Y2K Bug

By Marvin V. Zelkowitz, University of Maryland

The article "The Millennium or Y2K Bug" by Marvin V. Zelkowitz addresses the widespread concern surrounding the year 2000 computer problem. Zelkowitz explains that the Y2K bug originated in the early days of computing (around 1960) when computer storage was minimal and expensive. To save space, dates were stored using only the last two digits (e.g., '69' for 1969). This practice meant that come January 1, 2000, computers might interpret '00' as 1900 instead of 2000, leading to incorrect calculations, such as negative ages.

The author outlines three main reasons for the persistence of this problem: programs being used longer than anticipated, the loss of original source code, and a perceived invincibility among programmers leading to a lack of rigorous review.

Zelkowitz discusses the potential consequences, ranging from minor errors to catastrophic system failures that could cause companies to go bankrupt or society to grind to a halt. He notes that billions are being spent globally to fix these issues, involving testing and updating millions of programs. The article highlights the ripple effect within an interdependent economy, where a failure in one critical system could impact others, citing examples like the GM strike and the Galaxy IV satellite failure.

Regarding government and industry responses, the article indicates that most large companies, telephone companies, banks, financial institutions, and the federal government are actively working on Y2K fixes. However, concerns remain, particularly regarding the Department of Defense's reported fluctuations in compliance rates. The article also points out the significant spending on Y2K fixes, with some consultants suggesting that many non-critical systems could simply be scrapped.

Industries with embedded computing systems (ECS), such as power plants and relay stations, are identified as having potential problems. Airlines are preparing for potential disruptions, though the FAA is confident in the flight-readiness of U.S. commercial jetliners. Medical devices are also a concern, with a British survey estimating Y2K could be a factor in up to 1,500 deaths there.

The article touches upon the media's role in hyping the Y2K dangers, with journalists sometimes lacking technical understanding. It also mentions the phenomenon of "Y2K babies" and the rise of survivalist preparations. Litigation is expected to be a significant consequence, with lawyers anticipating suits over denial of service and corporate officers potentially facing lawsuits for failing to adequately address the problem.

Finally, Zelkowitz presents a more measured view of what is likely to happen, suggesting that while some systems will fail, it may be a "major non-event" for civilization as a whole. He advises keeping things in perspective, quoting an official from the Bank of Lebanon who stated they have lived with worse for over 20 years.

The Write Stuff: Strange Encounter of the Flabbergasting Kind

By Gary Stone

This column details a personal encounter with the practice of dowsing on a highway construction job site. The author, Gary Stone, observed a worker using dowsing rods to locate utility lines. Stone, a proponent of skeptical thinking, contacted the Federal Highway Administration (FHA) to express his concern about the use of "pseudo-scientific practices" on a federal project. He was informed that while the FHA does not endorse dowsing, other agencies and contractors involved might.

Stone's subsequent calls to a private company marking water lines and the main WSSC switchboard revealed that neither endorsed dowsing rods, with the latter stating they were unaware of WSSC lines at that location but would investigate. The article highlights the author's methodical documentation of his calls and his belief that he has prompted some reconsideration of dowsing practices among those involved.

The author concludes by stating he contacted four organizations and suspects his actions broadened awareness regarding the unreliability of dowsing, even if it didn't lead to a formal response. He also notes that the story served as a fitting example during a discussion at his office.

Sir Isaac Newton's Magical Tradition

By Richard Dengrove

This article explores the lesser-known aspects of Sir Isaac Newton's work, suggesting that he was influenced by magical traditions. The author posits that Newton, while a pivotal figure in the development of science, still believed in "occult virtues"—hidden forces like gravity, light particles, and atomic attraction/repulsion—which he saw as God's direct manifestation.

The article traces the history of magic from the Middle Ages, distinguishing between black magic (involving demons) and natural magic (seeking hidden causes in nature). It mentions figures like William of Auvergne, Saint Thomas Aquinas, Marsilio Ficino, Agrippa von Nettesheim, Giambattista della Porta, Johannes Kepler, and Jean Baptiste van Helmont, all of whom engaged with or influenced the understanding of natural magic.

Dengrove notes that Gottfried Wilhem Leibniz accused Newton of explaining phenomena with occult virtues, a claim Newton did not deny. The article also points out Newton's claim to be rediscovering ancient wisdom, linking him to figures like Hermes Trismegistus. By the 1730s, however, the debate between visible and occult causes had shifted, and Newton's "natural magic" was largely dismissed.

A selected bibliography is provided, including works on the history of science, magic, and books of secrets.

Refuting Darwin's Black Box

By Garold R. Stone

This brief article reviews Michael Behe's book "Darwin's Black Box: The Biochemical Challenge to Evolution." Garold R. Stone describes the book as a "superficially compelling and fatally flawed anti-evolution argument for 'Intelligent Design'" based on "Irreducible Complexity" at the bio-molecular level. The author notes that Behe is actively speaking to Christian groups about his work. Stone provides links to two critical reviews of the book: one by David W. Ussery, a biochemist, and another by John Catalano.

"Ghostbusting 101"

This section announces a full-day program presented by the National Capital Area Skeptics (NCAS) examining investigations of the spirit realm. The workshop, titled "Ghostbusting 101," is designed for individuals interested in applying critical thinking to paranormal claims and is suitable for ages 15 and up.

The program features several sessions: Chip Denman will discuss the history of seances and mediums; Joe Holbert will explore the possibility of ghosts being associated with electromagnetic fields; and Kari Coleman will share her experiences with modern mediums and psychic readings. Dr. Michael Epstein will present an overview of technological efforts to record evidence of spirits, covering ghost photos, detectors, and electronic voice phenomena.

Additional discussions will include "spirit photographs," modern seances, and the Ouija Board effect. The workshop is scheduled for Saturday, October 16, 1999, from 9 am to 5 pm at the Best Western Leesburg Dulles in Leesburg, Virginia. Registration fees are $25 if postmarked by September 25, 1999, and $30 thereafter. The fee includes snacks and handouts, but not lunch.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The Skeptical Eye consistently promotes critical thinking and scientific skepticism. The magazine actively debunks pseudoscientific claims, such as dowsing and the Y2K bug's more extreme predictions, while also examining historical and scientific topics through a rational lens. The editorial stance is clearly against unsubstantiated beliefs and in favor of evidence-based reasoning, as demonstrated by the critiques of "Intelligent Design" and the exploration of Newton's work from a scientific perspective. The publication also serves as a platform for promoting skeptical activism and events, such as the "Ghostbusting 101" workshop.