Skeptic - 2002 - Vol 15 No 3

Magazine Overview

Title: The Skeptic
Issue: Volume 15 Number 3
Date: Autumn 2002

This issue of The Skeptic offers a diverse range of articles, from in-depth investigations into paranormal phenomena to commentary on societal trends and scientific developments. The cover boldly proclaims "Spooooooky!" and highlights a two-part article on the psychological reality of haunts and poltergeists, alongside features on cryptozoology, Area 51, and carbon dating.

Editorial

The editorial, penned by Kate Holden and Chris French, welcomes readers to the Autumn 2002 issue. They introduce the lead article by Rense Lange and James Houran, which explores the psychological aspects of hauntings and poltergeists. They also highlight Charles Paxton's article on cryptozoology and David Hambling's investigation into "Area 51" and its potential connection to flying saucer myths. The editors express hope that the issue, including contributions from regular columnists, letters, and reviews, will provide an interesting read.

Hilary Evans' Paranormal Picture Gallery

This section features an illustration by William Sewell for Petrovich's 'Hero Tales of the Serbians,' accompanied by an article titled "The Disappearance of Demons." The author, Hilary Evans, discusses the societal shift away from belief in demons and the implications of this decline. She notes that while the concept of demons provided an explanation for misconduct and psychological crises, their absence leaves a void. The piece uses a Serbian folktale about "The Younger Son" to illustrate the struggle against evil. Evans concludes that while people may speak of conquering "inner demons," these are not comparable to the traditional concept of the devil.

Articles and Features

The Psychological Reality of Haunts and Poltergeists: Part 1

Authors Rense Lange and James Houran begin a two-part series examining hauntings and poltergeists. They argue that these phenomena, often attributed to the supernatural, are better understood as "social facts" reflecting psychological, social, and cultural conditions. The article posits that outbreaks of phenomena like apparitions, sounds, and physical manifestations are usually interpreted as paranormal due to ambiguous stimuli and individual psychological states, rather than evidence of discarnate entities. They propose a model where paranormal beliefs, experiences, and fear interact with contextual variables and an individual's tolerance of ambiguity to shape these interpretations. The authors draw on historical accounts and scientific research, suggesting that these experiences offer insights into magical thinking, hallucination, and suggestion.

In Search of Monsters?

Charles Paxton's article delves into the field of cryptozoology, exploring the study of unknown or legendary creatures. The piece promises to investigate the "often misunderstood world" of this subject.

Secrets of Area 51

David Hambling revisits the mystery surrounding Area 51, investigating how secret balloon projects may have contributed to the enduring myth of flying saucers. The article aims to explore the origins of these popular beliefs.

Carbon Dating

This section appears to be a personal ads column, with several entries seeking romantic or other types of connections, often with humorous or unusual criteria. Examples include a "lonely male crop-circler" and a "NICE girl, 25, with evil sister, seeks man with large crucifix."

Hits and Misses

This section contains several short reports:

• The curse of...: This piece discusses the "Curse of Hello!" phenomenon, where individuals featured in the magazine Hello! subsequently experience misfortunes. It extends this idea to Sports Illustrated, analyzing the statistics of athletes featured on its cover and their subsequent "verifiable misfortunes." The article suggests that the high-risk nature of professional sports and the visibility of athletes make negative events statistically likely, rather than indicative of a supernatural curse.
• Delayed payment: This report details the case of Lawrence Wollersheim, who finally collected a significant legal judgment against the Church of Scientology after a long legal battle. Wollersheim, who claims to have suffered mental abuse, was awarded millions in damages, with the Church eventually paying the judgment plus interest.
• Seeing ghosts: The article recounts historian Lord Dacre's explanation for ghost sightings, attributing them to Charles Bonnet Syndrome, a condition causing visual hallucinations in individuals experiencing vision loss. He describes seeing a statuesque woman, which he believes is a product of the brain creating its own visual reality.
• The search for signs of intelligent life in the UK: This report touches upon a perceived "intelligence crisis" in the UK, referencing a BBC nationwide IQ test and research suggesting palmistry can predict intellectual ability. It notes that the BBC's test concluded that the most intelligent people were not watching.
• New forms of identity theft: The article discusses concerns about genetic privacy and the potential for "DNA theft," citing an instance where DNA from discarded dental floss was used to prove paternity. It also touches upon the broader implications of identity theft and the need for fair risk assessment by insurance companies and non-discriminatory employment practices.
• Stephen Jay Gould, RIP: This is an obituary for the renowned paleontologist Stephen Jay Gould, who died at the age of 60. It highlights his significant contributions to evolutionary biology, particularly his book "The Structure of Evolutionary Theory," and mentions his earlier work "The Mismeasure of Man."

Skeptic at large...

Wendy M. Grossman's column, "The tea towel conspiracy," reflects on the British monarchy and the concept of inherited authority. She expresses a personal aversion to buying royal memorabilia, framing it as a matter of principle against inherited privilege. Grossman contrasts the hereditary nature of the monarchy with scientific principles, questioning the notion of genetic or cultural superiority. She suggests that the enduring appeal of the royal family stems from a human desire for authority, which has seen a rise in alternative beliefs like New Age practices, astrology, and alternative therapies, alongside a decline in scientific understanding. She concludes by noting the public's desire for simple answers, which scientists often struggle to provide.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

This issue of The Skeptic consistently promotes a rational, evidence-based approach to understanding phenomena, particularly those often categorized as paranormal. The editorial stance is clearly skeptical, encouraging critical examination of claims and seeking psychological and naturalistic explanations for events. Themes of scientific literacy, the dangers of pseudoscience, and the importance of critical thinking are prevalent throughout the articles. The magazine aims to debunk myths, question extraordinary claims, and provide a platform for reasoned debate, while also acknowledging the complexities of human experience and belief systems.

This issue of The Skeptic, Volume 15 Number 3, dated May 20-22, 2002, features a cover story titled "In Search of Monsters?" by Charles Paxton, which defends cryptozoology. The magazine also includes articles on psychological aspects of paranormal experiences, the importance of scientific literacy, and the potential origins of UFO myths. A "Skeptical Stats" section provides a collection of miscellaneous facts, and a "Philosopher's Corner" discusses confidence and arrogance.

Articles

In Search of Monsters? (Pages 14-17)

Charles Paxton writes in defense of cryptozoology, defining it as the scientific study of unknown animals, often relying on indirect evidence such as eyewitness testimony. He acknowledges that the field is often associated with pseudoscientific claims and appeals to myth and folklore. However, he distinguishes it from ufology by its basic assumption that the world's fauna is not complete, citing discoveries of new large animals. Paxton notes that while many cryptozoologists do not believe cryptids are supernatural, a fringe group engages in 'para-cryptozoology.' He argues that the validity of cryptozoology rests on its methods, which can be rigorous, involving the collection and interpretation of obscure information, similar to historical science. However, he points out issues with data acquisition, the reliability of secondary sources, and the potential for misinterpretation. He suggests that cryptozoology, at its core, is the study of 'monsters' in a neutral sense. The article critiques the lack of systematic data collection and critical evaluation in some cryptozoological studies, while praising the work of rigorous cryptozoologists who delve into obscure sources. Paxton also discusses the case of a predicted moth in Madagascar and the discovery of a new beaked whale species as examples that could be considered cryptozoological. He concludes that while cryptozoology is not currently a science, it is a valid and exciting area of study that is becoming more self-critical, with new generations suggesting more attention to psychological and paleontological literature. He emphasizes that skeptical criticism is beneficial and that the plausible nature of monster claims requires a nuanced approach rather than outright dismissal.

The Skeptic - Page 11: Contextual and Process Variables (Part 1 of an article by James Houran and Rense Lange)

This section, the first part of a two-part article, explores the psychological factors influencing paranormal experiences. It begins by discussing "Contextual Variables," drawing parallels to how ambiguous stimuli can be interpreted based on individual needs, such as thirst influencing the perception of an orange. Similarly, an apparition can be perceived as a demon or an angel based on environmental cues, demand characteristics, and the individual's psychophysical state or prior beliefs. The specificity of paranormal experiences is found to be congruent with contextual variables; for instance, a person in a room with a lavender hue might smell lilacs. Experiential modalities increase with contextual variables, moving from seeing an apparition to also hearing or smelling something. Experimental studies, like one conducted in a renovated theatre, showed that participants told the theatre was haunted reported more physical, extrapersonal, and transpersonal experiences compared to a control group. Contextual variables guide the interpretation of ambiguous stimuli, linking them to paranormal experiences.

The second section, "Process Variables," delves into attribution theory, explaining delusions as a byproduct of a percipient's failure to find a standard explanation for ambiguous stimuli. Intense ambiguous experiences can be interpreted as personally significant, and a lack of consensual explanation can lead to fear. This fear can be reduced by 'normal' reasoning, but if no standard explanation is found, contextual variables may suggest a paranormal one. Once fear is reduced, this paranormal explanation may persist as a defense mechanism. The article notes a negative-feedback loop where increases in belief and experience are accompanied by decreases in fear, neutralizing initial changes. However, environmental variations provide continuous ambiguous stimuli needing interpretation, keeping beliefs and fears unstable. Attentional biases also play a role. An example is given of a couple chronicling strange events in their home, where the frequency of anomalous events increased and then decreased, following a logistic growth curve.

The Skeptic - Page 12: Contextual Variables (Continued) and Exogenous Variables

Continuing the discussion on contextual variables, the article notes that the logistic growth curve observed in anomalous events is typical of infectious processes, termed "perceptual contagion." Research on real poltergeists also shows clustering effects, suggesting perceptual contagion may play a role. The negative-feedback loop in Figure 1 implies that beliefs directly induce experiences, though Irwin's literature review suggests a direct link between experience and belief cannot be excluded. The authors reconcile this by suggesting that while experiences may decrease fear through belief, beliefs are also fueled by ambiguity intolerance. The net effect of increased paranormal experiences on beliefs might be negligible. Contextual variables affect paranormal beliefs and experiences simultaneously, leading to a positive correlation between belief and experience scales. The authors suggest the circular relation between paranormal beliefs and experiences is characteristic of the delusional process.

"Exogenous Variables" are discussed, indicating that paranormal experiences and beliefs are related to more stable characteristics like age, gender, and tolerance of ambiguity. Fear of the paranormal is greater for women, older people, and those with low ambiguity tolerance. Anecdotal reports suggest poltergeist-like experiences focus on young women. This aligns with findings that being female is associated with greater fear of the paranormal and lower ambiguity tolerance. The study acknowledges limitations, such as the lack of adolescent samples and measures of psychological stress, but references Keinan's work showing intolerance of ambiguity is associated with enhanced magical thinking, especially during stress. Conversely, those with higher ambiguity tolerance solve problems through logical analysis and cope better with stress.

Figure 1 also suggests belief in the paranormal is affected by tolerance of ambiguity through two processes. High ambiguity tolerance might lead to viewing poltergeists as curiosities, inspiring awe rather than fear. Low ambiguity tolerance, however, may lead to fear of the paranormal, forcing a choice between maintaining a 'normal' view with increased fear or avoiding fear by accepting an undesirable paranormal explanation, which could threaten peace of mind and lead to negative social consequences.

Skeptical Stats (Page 13)

This section presents a collection of diverse statistics, including:

• Number of ships launched by the Queen Mother: 11
• Cost of a five-pound bag of shredded US currency: $45
• Guaranteed minimum value of original notes: $10,000
• Coca-Cola beverage occasions identified as selling opportunities per day: 32
• Number of people losing money in Nigerian email scam in April 2002: 16
• Total amount lost in Nigerian email scam: $354,000
• Faxes sent to MPs via online Fax Your MP services as of April 25, 2002: 25,122
• Percentage of malfunctions in new high-tech German cars due to electrical/electronic systems: 32.1
• Amount awarded to former Scientologist Lawrence Wollersheim against the Church of Scientology in 1980: $2.5 million
• Years to collect the award: 22
• Number of taxicabs in New York City: about 12,000 (compared to about 22,000 in 1930)
• Difference in interest paid by companies on bonds bearing Aa rating vs. Aaa rating: about $400 million a year
• Time for a family of three to finish a 10 x 6.5 ft Tabriz carpet with 50 knots/square inch: about 4 months
• Carrier bags used by British shoppers per year: 8 billion (134 per capita)
• Cost of a butter spreader on Liza Minnelli and David Gest's gift registry: $65 (16 asked for)
• Percentage of nuclear matter in the universe that is not hydrogen or helium: less than 2
• Amount awarded to a Utah apocalyptic church for not meeting Jesus: $300,000
• Expected increase in US network news budgets due to the war in Afghanistan: $50 million per year
• British children contracting measles per year pre-mass vaccination: 160,000 to 800,000
• Deaths from measles in an epidemic year: more than 100
• Incidence of subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (causing brain damage and early death) after measles: 1 in 8000
• Healthier amount of sleep per night according to UC San Diego scientists: 5 hours
• Fee charged by New York animal psychic Joanna Seere for a one-hour telephone consultation: $90
• Average price paid by mobile phone companies for 3g licences outside UK, Germany, and Italy, per capita: $65
• Average price paid in UK, Germany, and Italy, per capita: $441

The section also lists sources for the statistics and thanks contributors.

Science and Society (Page 8)

Steve Donnelly argues for the necessity of a scientifically and technologically literate population in a sane and liberal society. He posits that modern life is increasingly technological, with daily encounters dominated by constructs like the internet, mobile phones, and automobiles, rather than the natural environment. Therefore, 21st-century individuals need a similar understanding of their high-tech environment as Neanderthals needed of theirs. Donnelly believes that scientific rationalism is the only belief system that has led to clear, beneficial developments for society and offers genuine predictive powers, citing advancements in medical science and insights into the universe. He contends that a scientifically literate society is less likely to be swayed by 'zany philosophies' based on charismatic individuals or ancient scriptures, and that the scientific method helps individuals develop rational arguments and avoid illogical thinking. Donnelly also highlights the severe financial shortfalls faced by science and engineering departments in UK universities due to inadequate government funding, leading to potential job losses and department closures. He expresses concern that institutions are increasingly offering degrees in alternative and complementary medicine, such as homeopathy and chiropractic, and questions when universities might start offering degrees in astrology.

Rhyme and Reason (Page 8)

This is a short section by Steve Donnelly, likely a continuation of the "Science and Society" theme, focusing on the importance of scientific literacy and the challenges faced by science and engineering departments in the UK.

Philosopher's Corner (Page 9)

Julian Baggini discusses the role of confidence, particularly as fostered by private education in Britain. He uses the example of Laura Spence, a British state schoolgirl rejected by Oxford for lacking confidence. Baggini argues that confidence, distinct from arrogance, is crucial for success and for forming one's own opinions, especially in areas outside one's expertise. He notes that while confidence is desirable, arrogance arises when it is excessive. Baggini raises the question of how much arrogance, rather than confidence, is prevalent, particularly in professions where important decisions are made. He shares an anecdote about a philosophy lecturer who criticized Richard Dawkins without having read his work, suggesting this misguided confidence might not be atypical. Baggini concludes that the intellectual risks of over-confidence are great, but the social costs of under-confidence are perhaps greater.

Secrets of Area 51 (Pages 10-11)

David Hambling explores how secret balloon projects may have contributed to the flying saucer myth. He begins by describing Area 51 as a secret US military base associated with flying saucers, alien technology, and conspiracy theories. Hambling notes that while the base is real and has hosted secret aircraft like the U-2 and SR-71, the 'strange things' observed may not necessarily involve aliens or weird science. He references Nick Cook's book "Zero Point," which suggests secret technology originates from Nazis rather than aliens, and that the US government suppresses technology for unlimited free energy. Hambling presents a 1947 memorandum by Lt General Twining listing six traits of flying discs sighted in UFO encounters: metallic or light reflecting, no trail, circular or elliptical, formation flying, no associated sound, and level speed above 300 knots. Twining stated that the US possessed the knowledge to construct a piloted aircraft with these characteristics. The article then details "Project Skyhook," a secret US Navy project initiated in 1947 that used giant balloons made of 'high-density polyethylene' to lift scientific instruments to the edge of space. These balloons, over a hundred feet across, changed shape with altitude, adopting a teardrop shape at maximum height, which could resemble a saucer. Under certain lighting conditions, the plastic could catch the sun and shine like metal, leading to numerous UFO sightings. The official explanation that they were weather balloons was unconvincing, as weather balloons are much smaller. The article recounts the incident of Captain Mantell, who pursued a UFO in his F-51D Mustang on January 7th, 1948, and crashed. The headline reported "F-51 and Capt. Mantell Destroyed Chasing Flying Saucer." The official report attributed Mantell's crash to oxygen starvation, causing the aircraft to turn due to torque.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The Skeptic consistently promotes a critical and evidence-based approach to extraordinary claims. This issue reinforces this stance by examining the psychological underpinnings of paranormal beliefs, questioning the scientific validity of cryptozoology while acknowledging rigorous methods, and exploring rational explanations for phenomena often attributed to the supernatural, such as UFO sightings. The magazine champions scientific literacy and rational thought as essential for navigating a complex world and defending against what it terms 'magical ways of thinking.' The "Skeptical Stats" section serves to contextualize claims with data and highlight the often-surprising nature of reality. The "Philosopher's Corner" encourages intellectual self-awareness, distinguishing between healthy confidence and detrimental arrogance. Overall, the editorial stance is one of informed skepticism, encouraging readers to apply critical thinking to a wide range of subjects, from the paranormal to societal issues.

Title: The Skeptic
Issue: Volume 15 Number 3
Date: 2002

This issue of The Skeptic, a UK-based publication dedicated to critical examination of paranormal claims and pseudoscience, delves into the history of secret US government balloon projects, the debunking of various pseudoscientific beliefs, and ongoing debates within the parapsychology community.

Secret Cold War Balloon Projects: Genetrix and Mogul

The lead articles focus on two significant, yet clandestine, US balloon programs: Project Genetrix and Project Mogul. Project Genetrix, initiated in 1947, aimed to use high-altitude balloons to conduct reconnaissance over the Soviet Union, circumventing the limitations of early spy planes. The program sought to photograph military installations, airfields, and submarine bases hidden behind the Iron Curtain. While technical challenges delayed its operational status until 1956, the balloons, equipped with cameras, were designed to fly at 55,000 feet and be nearly invisible to radar. However, a critical flaw emerged: a steel rod in the balloon's rigging resonated with a Soviet early warning radar called Token, effectively turning the balloons into beacons. This allowed the Soviets to track them easily, leading to the capture of several gondolas and a diplomatic incident. Despite these setbacks, the program yielded valuable intelligence, with 40 out of 500 balloons providing usable photographs covering over 1.4 million square miles of Soviet territory, serving as a baseline for future satellite imagery analysis.

Project Mogul, a secret 1947 program, also utilized balloons, but its primary objective was to detect Soviet atomic tests. The theory was that colossal explosions could create sound channels in the jetstream, similar to undersea sound channels, allowing detection. A cluster of smaller balloons was used for this purpose. The article highlights the accidental crash of a Mogul balloon near Roswell, New Mexico, which led to the infamous Roswell incident. The rancher who found the wreckage initially reported it as a "flying disc," a term used 11 days before the first recorded use of "flying saucer." The subsequent switch to a "weather balloon" explanation did little to quell the burgeoning conspiracy theories surrounding the event.

The magazine posits that the secrecy surrounding these projects, coupled with the government's less-than-transparent explanations, significantly contributed to the public's fascination with UFOs and conspiracy theories. The article suggests that the government's attempts to cover up the true nature of these balloon programs created an environment where any unexplained aerial phenomenon could be readily attributed to extraterrestrial origins.

Debunking Pseudoscience and Examining Belief

Several book reviews and articles address pseudoscientific claims and the psychology of belief. Martin Gardner's "Did Adam and Eve Have Navels? Debunking Pseudoscience" is reviewed, highlighting its witty and scholarly approach to debunking various pseudoscientific topics, including creationism, Freudian dream theory, and UFOlogy.

Another review discusses "Hauntings and Poltergeists: Multidisciplinary Perspectives," edited by James Houran and Rense Lange. This book is noted for its comprehensive coverage of the topic, presenting a range of beliefs from absolute skeptics to true believers, and for posing more questions than providing definitive answers. The review also points out the book's high price, making it suitable only for those with a serious interest and a healthy bank balance.

Steven Johnson's "Emergence: The connected lives of ants, brains, cities and software" is reviewed as an accessible introduction to the concept of emergence, explaining how complex systems can arise from simple, bottom-up interactions without top-down control. The review recommends it as a starting point for understanding this fascinating subject.

Debates on Parapsychology and Skepticism

The issue features a lengthy correspondence section with debates on the nature of paranormal research and skepticism. Chris French, a parapsychologist, engages with critics, including those who question the methodology and findings of parapsychological experiments. The debate touches upon the challenges of replicability, the influence of experimenter bias, and the interpretation of meta-analyses. French argues that while he is primarily a psychologist, he believes in testing paranormal claims rigorously. He notes that experiments conducted by his postgraduate students, following up on alleged robust paranormal effects described by Dean Radin, have not produced significant results requiring a paranormal explanation.

Montague Keen, another contributor, argues that replicability is inherently impossible for certain paranormal phenomena due to uncontrolled factors and the variability of personalities involved. He criticizes the tendency of some scientists to dismiss evidence that contradicts their strongly-held theories. Keen also references the Dorr-Lethe case as a significant piece of evidence that he believes warrants detailed examination.

Dr. George Wood, OBE, contributes a letter questioning the distinction between religion and superstition, arguing that religions often justify their claims with supernatural phenomena, thus making them targets for rational criticism.

Other Content

The magazine also includes a review of "The Great Skeptic CD: 1981-2000" by The Australian Skeptics, a comprehensive archive of their publication. The review praises the CD for its entertaining and educational content, noting the shared challenges faced by skeptics in the UK and Australia, such as questionable medical claims and public misunderstanding of science.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The Skeptic consistently adopts a critical and evidence-based approach to paranormal claims, pseudoscience, and conspiracy theories. The magazine actively seeks to debunk myths, scrutinize extraordinary claims, and promote scientific literacy. The editorial stance is one of healthy skepticism, encouraging readers to question assertions and demand rigorous evidence. The publication appears to be a platform for robust debate within the skeptical community, featuring contributions from researchers, writers, and engaged readers who challenge and discuss various aspects of paranormal phenomena and pseudoscientific beliefs. The recurring theme of secret government projects and their potential to fuel public fascination with UFOs underscores the magazine's interest in the intersection of science, secrecy, and popular belief.