Skeptic - 1993 - Vol 7 No 5

Magazine Overview

Title: The Skeptic
Issue: Volume 7, Number 5
Date: September/October 1993
Publisher: The Skeptic
Country: UK
Price: £1.85
ISSN: 0959-5228

This issue of The Skeptic delves into "The Mysteries of Creativity" as its cover headline, with additional articles exploring "Collecting Anomalies of Nature," "Abnormally High IQ," "The Big Bang Controversy," and a whimsical piece on "Nostradamus Predicts Chess Winners." The magazine maintains its commitment to skeptical inquiry and the examination of phenomena that challenge conventional scientific understanding.

Editorial and Staff

The editorial team includes Dr Steve Donnelly and Toby Howard as Editors. The issue acknowledges contributions from various staff members in subscriptions and finance (Dave Martin, Dr Dave Love), typing and secretarial (Mavis Howard, Angela Linton), cartoons (Donald Rooum, Tim Pearce), proof-reading (Jane Bousfield, Daf & Mike Tregear, Angela Cernoculschi), special consultancy (Cyril Howard), and publicity (Chris Nash). Printing was handled by Chapel Press, Stockport.

The Skeptic is published bimonthly from PO Box 475, Manchester M602TH, UK. Opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the editors.

A significant portion of the issue is dedicated to acknowledging clipping contributors, including Mark Butler, Arthur Chappell, Jack Cramb, Gerald Fleming, Earnest Jackson, Donald Rooum, Mike Rutter, Gillian Sathanandan, H Sivyer, Steuart Campbell, Marie Donnelly, and Brian Slade.

Hilary Evans' Paranormal Picture Gallery

This section features a "Paranormal Picture Gallery" curated by Hilary Evans, co-proprietor of the Mary Evans Picture Library. The featured image is from the "JOURNAL AMUSANT," an illustrated journal from September 17, 1859, depicting a "PETIT COURS DE CARTOMANCIE ILLUSTRÉ" (A Little Illustrated Course in Fortune-Telling). The accompanying text discusses "Le Skepticisme" (Skepticism) in France, noting that while the French generally possess a healthy skepticism, the 1850s saw notable inroads of belief in the paranormal. The rise of mediums, influenced by the Fox sisters, and events like Bernadette Soubirous's visions, fueled religious controversy and made table-turning parties a fashionable social event. The spoof on cartomancy is presented as a way to escape reality.

Hits and Misses by Steve Donnelly

Steve Donnelly, a physicist and reader in electronics and electrical engineering at the University of Salford, contributes a column titled "Hits and Misses." This section covers several diverse and often quirky topics:

Cosmic Car Parking Donnelly recounts an interview with Katie Boyle, who shared her method for finding parking spaces by invoking the spirit of her late husband, Greville Bayliss. Donnelly shares a personal anecdote where this method seemingly worked in Mons, Belgium, and recommends it to readers, humorously suggesting future hints on changing traffic lights by mind power.

Monkey Business An article from the Daily Telegraph is cited, detailing how a six-year-old chimpanzee named Ola outperformed Swedish financial experts by investing £1000 using a dart and a list of companies. Ola's portfolio achieved a 20% higher profit than the nearest rival.

Bollards This piece discusses the veneration of a large, concrete traffic bollard in Golden Gate Park, San Francisco. Hundreds of worshippers reportedly visit the bollard, viewing it as a symbol of Shiva (lingam), meditating, and burning incense. It is claimed to have cured a man of arthritis.

Scottish Stone Curse Local legend in Strathy, Scotland, blames storms on a 1000-year-old curse associated with an ancient priest's stone. The stone was temporarily moved by archaeologists, and the subsequent poor summer weather is attributed to this action by local councillor Rob Morrison.

Cool Music A technique for improving CD sound quality is presented, originating from Audiophile magazine: placing CDs in a sealed plastic bag and freezing them overnight, followed by refrigeration for 24 hours. The theory suggests the freezing process alters the molecular structure of the discs.

Water Loadarubbish Admiral Sir Anthony Griffin is reportedly working on an engine that uses water (H₂O) as fuel for the Royal Navy. The project has faced minor setbacks, including occasional explosions in his garage, attributed to extracting hydrogen from water. The Admiral is collaborating with Stanley Mayer, who apparently drives a water-powered Volkswagen buggy.

Blind Rider In Dijon, France, a hypnotist and faith-healer named Jean-Marie Laforgue reportedly drove a motorbike on country roads with sticky pads over his eyes and a black bag over his head. He claimed to "see with my mind," attributing his ability to concentrate. The event was filmed by a television crew.

At the Frontiers of Science by William R Corliss

William R Corliss, a physicist and writer, contributes an article titled "Cataloguing the anomalies and curiosities of nature." Corliss has been collecting scientific anomalies for about 30 years, initially intrigued by geological theory and later by the work of Charles Fort. His collection, "The Catalog of Anomalies," aims to assemble scientific enigmas and paradoxes from a vast array of sources, including scientific journals and magazines from 1820 to the present.

Corliss details his methodology, which involves surveying numerous volumes of scientific literature and compiling items that are not adequately explained by reigning scientific paradigms. He has published several loose-leaf Sourcebooks, Handbooks, and volumes of the Catalogue of Anomalies, as well as the monthly newsletter "Science Frontiers."

He acknowledges that his collection may contain fraudulent or questionable data but defends the inclusion of phenomena that mainstream science may have dismissed, drawing a parallel to the eventual acceptance of continental drift. Corliss emphasizes that his work is driven by personal curiosity and the need to market his books to support his research, as government offices and private foundations show little interest in supporting "anomalistics."

Corliss argues that anomaly research, while not science itself, has the potential to destabilize paradigms and accelerate scientific change by revealing nature's complexity and chaos. He notes that mainstream science's response has been generally favorable, though some reviewers have warned against exposing undergraduates to such material.

He describes the philosophical shift occurring in science, moving away from the clockwork universe model towards an understanding of nature as unpredictable, complex, non-linear, discontinuous, and out-of-equilibrium. Corliss sees his work as liberating, allowing for a broader perspective on nature.

Understanding Creativity by Margaret Boden

Margaret Boden, a professor of computer science, explores the scientific understanding of creativity, particularly through computational concepts. She distinguishes between three aspects: understanding human creativity, producing computer-creativity, and using computers to aid human creativity.

Boden discusses "combinational creativity," where new ideas arise from novel combinations of familiar ones, often measurable by psychometric tests. She contrasts this with "non-combinational creativity," which involves exploring and transforming conceptual spaces (styles of thought) to produce ideas that seem impossible within the existing framework. Computational models, drawing from artificial intelligence, can help illuminate these processes, particularly imaginative association and analogy.

She explains that creativity often involves changing or transforming existing conceptual spaces. This requires internal "maps" of these spaces, allowing for navigation, testing limits, modification, and transformation. Boden suggests that figures like Mozart possessed richer and more nuanced maps of musical structures, enabling greater creative variation.

Boden also addresses whether computers can be creative. She notes that programs already exist that can explore conceptual spaces and generate novel designs, hypotheses, and even mathematical theorems. The definition of creativity used here is psychological: the ability to produce an idea that one could not have had within the pre-existing domain-space, regardless of whether others have had it before.

She highlights the use of "evolutionary" programs and "genetic algorithms" in generating new images and patterns, where humans select the most aesthetically pleasing results for further development. This interactive process allows for cooperation between humans and computers in creative endeavors. Boden concludes that a computational approach can significantly clarify questions about human creative powers.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme throughout "The Skeptic" is the application of critical thinking and scientific methodology to a wide range of phenomena, including those that challenge conventional scientific understanding. The magazine consistently promotes a skeptical approach, encouraging readers to question extraordinary claims and to seek evidence-based explanations. The editorial stance appears to favor rational inquiry and the debunking of pseudoscience, while remaining open to genuine anomalies that may push the boundaries of current scientific knowledge, as exemplified by William Corliss's work.

This issue of "The Skeptic" from September/October 1993, volume 26, addresses claims of extraordinary intelligence and controversies in cosmology, alongside a humorous look at pseudoscience. The magazine, published by The Skeptic, features articles that critically examine popular beliefs and scientific theories through a skeptical lens.

A Supernatural IQ?

Andrew M Colman investigates the claim of Marilyn vos Savant possessing the 'world's highest IQ', citing a figure of 228. Colman argues that this claim is statistically impossible. He explains the historical development of the IQ concept, from Binet and Simon's mental age to William Stern's quotient and Lewis Terman's multiplication by 100. He then details the modern statistical definition of IQ, where scores are standardized with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. Colman calculates that an IQ of 228 is 8.53 standard deviations above the mean. Using a formula for the area under the normal distribution curve, he determines the probability of such an IQ to be less than p = 10^-17, meaning less than one in a hundred million billion. Given the world's population of over 5 billion, the odds against anyone having such an IQ are greater than 20 million to 1. Colman concludes that the claim is spurious, suggesting that if vos Savant were truly intelligent, she would recognize the impossibility of her own score, quoting her own definition of intellectual ability as distinguishing 'sense from nonsense'.

The Big Bang Controversy

Taner Edis explores the "Big Bang controversy" in cosmology, framing it as a look at pseudoscience within the field. He clarifies that 'Big Bang' refers to a family of theories about the universe's explosive origin and expansion, not a single monolithic idea. Edis notes that while the theory is falsifiable (e.g., it predicts an expanding universe), critics argue that the field is becoming overly complex with forced variants and that the enterprise itself may have unscientific elements, driven by aesthetic prejudices and mysticism.

Edis outlines the main strengths of the Big Bang theory: the observed expansion of the universe, the cosmic microwave background radiation, and the abundance of light elements. However, he highlights significant problems. The universe's observed flatness requires the introduction of 'dark matter' to provide the necessary gravity, for which evidence is slim. Furthermore, the observed large-scale structure of the universe, such as superclusters of galaxies, poses a challenge for formation within the estimated age of the universe (around 20 billion years), even with mechanisms like quantum fluctuations and inflation.

Alternative theories are discussed, including 'plasma cosmology', championed by plasma physicists like Hannes Alfven. This approach suggests that complex plasma processes, rather than gravity alone, drive cosmic structure formation. Plasma cosmologists propose that electromagnetism is a major force and that phenomena like the microwave background can be explained by scattering from plasma filaments. Another alternative mentioned is a variation of the 'Steady State' universe with continuous creation of matter.

Edis criticizes the current cosmological climate, suggesting that a 'Priesthood of High Theory' has formed, prioritizing elegance and symmetry over empirical reality. He notes that critics like Eric Lerner and Geoffrey Burbridge charge that the Big Bang has become a matter of faith, with radical departures from the standard model being suppressed by the peer-review system. He concludes that while Big Bang cosmologies have not exhausted their promise, and alternatives are still developing, there is no comfort for creationists, as alternatives also challenge the idea of a singular beginning. Edis suggests that cosmology might be an example of a science where philosophical prejudices have constricted horizons and where complaints about an unresponsive community have some merit.

Write Your Own Pseudoscience

Bob Basalla offers a tongue-in-cheek guide on how to write pseudoscientific works, using his own experience with the Cleveland Chess Bulletin as an example. He chose Nostradamus's prophecies and chess as his topic, arguing that the quatrains are ambiguous enough to be reinterpreted. Basalla outlines several techniques:

1. Volume: Produce reams of analysis to impress readers and make thorough checking difficult.
2. Topic Choice: Select a famous but not well-read subject, so readers rely on your word.
3. Credentials: Use existing credentials or fabricate plausible ones.
4. Have Fun: Inject jokes and puns to maintain sanity.

Basalla illustrates these techniques by reinterpreting Nostradamus's quatrains to predict the history of chess, including specific examples related to the Fischer-Spassky match and Paul Morphy. He admits that his audience did not genuinely believe his claims but found the exercise illuminating regarding how easily people can be swayed by pseudoscience. He also notes that his article was archived, leaving open the possibility of future misinterpretation.

Psychic Diary: The Flixton Woodpecker

Toby Howard recounts an experience of hearing a mysterious, rhythmic knocking sound. Initially, he suspected his gas central heating or other household issues. However, the sound persisted and seemed to emanate from within the house itself. He later discovered that workers in a nearby street were hammer-drilling into rock to underpin foundations of houses affected by tree roots. The sound was the hammering resonating through a hard layer of strata known as 'Fox Bench'. This experience made him less skeptical of stories about people hearing strange noises.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The magazine consistently adopts a skeptical and critical stance towards claims that lack empirical evidence or scientific rigor. It aims to debunk pseudoscience, question extraordinary claims (like exceptionally high IQs), and critically analyze scientific theories, including established ones like the Big Bang, by examining their underlying assumptions, evidence, and potential biases. The editorial stance promotes critical thinking, logical reasoning, and a reliance on verifiable data, while also acknowledging the complexities and potential flaws within science itself. The inclusion of humorous or satirical pieces, like the guide to writing pseudoscience, serves to highlight the absurdity of uncritical belief and the methods used to propagate it.

Title: The Skeptic
Issue: September/October 1993
Volume: 7
Publisher: The Skeptic
Country: UK
Language: English

Modern Superstitions

Wendy M. Grossman's column, 'Skeptic at Large,' opens with a discussion on modern superstitions. She notes that while specific beliefs have changed, the habit of mind persists, often being called by different names. Examples include brand loyalty ('I'm a Ford man') and the belief that advertising influences consumer choices. Grossman recounts an anecdote from a television program where people struggled to admit to being superstitious. She then shares responses from a CIX conference, detailing various modern superstitions shared by participants. These include:

• Banging a computer's side to make it work properly.
• Believing a PC will always fail unless tested first.
• Associating actors wearing lab coats with toothpaste expertise.
• The fallacy that actors who played characters with social problems become experts on those conditions.
• The belief that washing a car causes rain.
• Confidence in an exam leading to failure.
• Squeezing melons to determine ripeness (with the caveat that one can only tell how often it's been squeezed).
• More beer in a glass with a head on it.
• Alcohol-based astringents being good for skin after shaving.
• The belief that women with large breasts are interested in sex.
• Not picking up the phone between rings.
• It rains more often on Saturdays and the sun shines more often on Mondays.
• Spiders chasing people if they detect fear.
• A flea collar killing fleas on a cat.
• The belief that computers can make one more productive.
• Cats going for people who don't like them.
• Washing hands in water from boiled eggs giving warts (or taking them away).
• Hot water freezing quicker than cold.
• Bad dress rehearsal leading to good performance.

The 'hot water freezing faster' phenomenon is discussed, with some participants sharing anecdotes. Andrew McClellan debunks it, referencing Aristotle and studies showing no difference. Phil McKerracher suggests that superstition develops from intermittent faults in appliances that are seemingly fixed by trial remedies, leading to superstitious acceptance. An experiment with birds trained to peck a lever for food, where a randomizer was introduced, resulted in obsessive pecking and the development of superstitions about the 'best' way to get a payoff, drawing a parallel to slot machine addiction.

Reviews

The believer's tale

John Beloff's 'Parapsychology: A Concise History' is reviewed by Paul Johnson. The book covers the history of paranormal research, from Mesmer to recent events like the 'Geller effect' and ganzfeld experiments. Beloff, a believer in paranormal phenomena, is criticized for downplaying skeptical contributions and suggesting skeptics have hidden agendas. The review highlights the case of Ted Serios and 'thoughtography,' where Beloff dismisses skeptical inquiry. Despite these criticisms, Johnson acknowledges the book as a serious, well-researched work deserving a place on the bookshelf of anyone interested in paranormal phenomena.

A new evolution

Gregory Stock's 'Metaman: Humans, Machines, and the Birth of a Global Super-organism' is reviewed. The reviewer notes the book's popular style and its exploration of futurology and millennialism. Stock's thesis is that humans plus machines equal a global superorganism, presented as a metaphor. The book is criticized for its large print, thick paper, and reliance on trivia and clichés, making it seem padded. It aims to address fears about technology being inhuman and too powerful, offering an optimistic view of technological progress. The reviewer questions the book's target audience, suggesting it assumes little prior knowledge and appeals to a desire for a 'bright future' school of thought.

A meteoric mystery

Roy S. Clarke's edited monograph, 'The Port Orford, Oregon, Meteorite Mystery,' is reviewed by Lucy Fisher. The monograph contains papers by Howard Plotkin and Vagn F. Buchwald & Roy S. Clarke. The mystery revolves around John Evans' 1856 claim of finding a ten-ton meteorite in Oregon. Plotkin argues that Evans, in financial need, likely fabricated the discovery, possibly using a piece of the Imilac meteorite shower from Chile. Buchwald and Clarke's analysis of the Port Orford specimen suggests it is meteoritic but most likely from the Imilac shower, concluding that the Port Orford meteorite likely does not exist. The reviewer notes the difficulty in finding the meteorite due to vague directions and the historical context of the American Civil War.

Looking for a TOE

Professor John Taylor's 'When the Clock Struck Zero: Science's Ultimate Limits' is reviewed by Toby O'Neil. The book discusses fundamental questions of existence, the creation of the universe, and consciousness. Taylor proposes an 'infinite chain of theories' rather than a single 'Theory of Everything' (TOE), where each theory has a range of validity. O'Neil finds this idea underdeveloped and possibly misconceived. The second half of the book offers a scientific explanation of consciousness, suggesting self-awareness is a natural consequence of brain activity. O'Neil praises the book's intriguing ideas and clear writing but criticizes its brevity, suggesting more pages would have allowed for fuller development of the concepts.

The secrets of the scrolls

Robert H. Eisenman and Michael Wise's 'The Dead Sea Scrolls Uncovered' is reviewed by Chris Nash. The book details the discovery of scrolls near the Dead Sea and the subsequent controversies surrounding their translation and publication. Nash highlights the guarded access to documents and accusations of bias. The review mentions bizarre theories linking early Christianity to hallucinogenic mushrooms and identifying Jesus as the 'Wicked Priest.' Eisenman's own theories are noted as strongly disputed. The book includes translations of the scrolls and commentary, offering a glimpse into ancient Jewish life and potentially challenging Christian historical narratives.

Light at the end of the tunnel?

Susan Blackmore's 'Dying to Live: Science and the Near-Death Experience' is reviewed by Tim Axon. Blackmore offers a naturalistic explanation for NDEs, proposing they are hallucinations produced by the dying brain, rather than evidence of an afterlife. She explains phenomena like OBEs and tunnels through brain activity and endorphin secretion. The book also delves into the philosophical concept of 'mental models' and how they relate to the sense of self and timelessness experienced in NDEs. Blackmore's position is compared to Buddhism, offering solace in the face of death by suggesting that the 'self' is a mental construct.

Events

The 5th European Skeptics Conference, held at Keele University from August 29-31, 1993, is summarized. Key presentations included:

• Dr. Peter May's critique of 'Faith Healing Claims of Morris Cerullo,' highlighting obstruction in assessing results and a case where a woman died after stopping epilepsy medication.
• Dr. John Maddox's critique of homeopathy, calling it a 'scam' that undermines science.
• Dr. Jan Willem Nienhuys on Electro-Acupuncture according to Voll (EAV).
• Dr. Willem Betz on 'The Use of Fraud in Health Care,' questioning patient satisfaction as a measure of remedy effectiveness.
• Michael Heap on 'How Can Useless Therapies Survive?', proposing therapy authenticates the therapist.
• Caroline Richmond's critique of a homeopathy trial, with Dr. David Taylor Reilly presenting his case.
• Dr. Thurstin Brewin on 'What's Wrong with Alternative Medicine,' criticizing fringe treatments.
• Professor Robert Morris on the 'Philosophy and Psychology of Paranormal Belief,' offering a taxonomy of deceptions.
• Dr. Susan Blackmore on 'Near Death Experience' and out-of-body phenomena.
• Dr. John Gillies on Multiple Personality Disorder.
• Dr. Chris French on whether sheep and goats process information differently.
• Mike Howgate on 'Pseudoscience and Antiscience in Jurassic Park.'
• Dr. Robin Allen on crop circles, demonstrating a simple method of creation.

The conference also featured presentations from CSICOP members Tom Flynn and Professor Paul Kurtz, who spoke on 'The Growth of Anti-Science,' noting the continued growth of skepticism worldwide.

Letters

Typography and Burt

Donald Rooum writes regarding Ray Ward's letter about Cyril Burt's work on typography. Rooum states he sent Ward duplicates of offprints, suggesting Burt's work on sans-serif typefaces being worst for word recognition might reflect his habitual working methods rather than a deliberate falsification, as he had no apparent 'axe to grind' in this particular field. Rooum notes that Burt's friend, typographer Beatrice Warde, was subsidizing the 'British Journal of Statistical Psychology,' which Burt edited.

Meditations

John Clarke responds to Arthur Chappell's letter about meditation. Clarke clarifies that his letter appeared in issue 7.2, not 7.3 as Chappell claimed, and that his mention of 'obsessional' thoughts was from a medical relative, not a passing crop circle. He also clarifies that he did not have a guru and that his experience with meditation was an experiment, not an attempt to join a Yoga group. He reports feeling less stressed after three weeks of practice.

Defending Blavatsky

Cecil R. Keys defends Madame Blavatsky and Theosophy against a reviewer. Keys argues that Darwin's theories are 'in tatters' and that Blavatsky's works, 'Isis Unveiled' and 'The Secret Doctrine,' have not been adequately refuted. He praises Annie Besant's career and suggests the reviewer is overly critical.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The issue consistently promotes a skeptical and evidence-based approach to claims of the paranormal, pseudoscience, and alternative medicine. The editorial stance is critical of unsubstantiated beliefs and practices, encouraging critical thinking and scientific inquiry. Recurring themes include the analysis of modern superstitions, the debunking of paranormal claims, and the review of books and events related to skepticism. The magazine actively seeks reader contributions and publishes letters to foster discussion and debate within the skeptical community.