SearchLites

Magazine Overview

Title: SearchLites
Issue: Vol. 24 No. 1
Date: Winter 2018
Publisher: The SETI League, Inc.
Type: Quarterly Newsletter

Thorne in this Side

This issue opens with a poem by Executive Director Emeritus H. Paul Shuch, commemorating colleague Kip Thorne's sharing of the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics with Barry Barish and Rainer Weiss for their work on LIGO and gravitational waves. The poem, titled "Thorne in this Side," humorously recounts Thorne's lifelong pursuit of understanding gravity and the challenges in detecting gravitational waves, culminating in the success of the LIGO instrument.

Guest Editorials

Out With The In Crowd by Dan Duda

Dan Duda, guest editor from the August 2017 issue of Penn Central, argues that most significant scientific breakthroughs are made by "outsiders" who challenge established norms. He uses Nikola Tesla and Albert Einstein as examples. Einstein, initially considered a "slow learner" and ostracized by the scientific community, eventually revolutionized physics with his theories of relativity. However, Duda posits that once Einstein became part of the "in-crowd," his scientific momentum slowed, and he even resisted new findings in quantum mechanics, famously debating Niels Bohr. Duda highlights Einstein's amendment to his Theory of Relativity to fit the prevailing "steady state" universe model, a decision he later called his "biggest blunder." The editorial concludes by referencing Einstein's thought experiment with Podolsky and Rosen, which, despite aiming to discredit quantum mechanics, led to the concept of particle entanglement.

Imperfect But Not Meaningless by H. Paul Shuch

H. Paul Shuch, Executive Director Emeritus, responds to a guest editorial by John Traphagan titled "SETI and the Meaningless Rio Scale." Shuch agrees with Traphagan that the Rio Scale, a tool developed to quantify the significance of purported SETI detections, has room for improvement but disagrees with the assertion that it is meaningless. Shuch addresses Traphagan's criticisms point by point:

1. Subjectivity: Shuch agrees the scale is subjective but argues this is healthy for interdisciplinary fields like SETI, fostering discussion and consensus.
2. Speculative Nature: He acknowledges SETI science is speculative until solid evidence emerges.
3. Imprecision: Shuch argues that excessive precision can be misleading, using the example of human body temperature (98.6°F) versus Celsius (37°C) to illustrate how implied precision can obscure actual variation.
4. Variability: He sees variability as a strength, allowing for the plotting of solutions over time as more data is gathered.
5. Ordinal Scale: Shuch notes that while the scale is ordinal, the extremes (Rio 0 and Rio 10) are the most significant, representing meaningless and world-changing events, respectively.
6. Trivializing Social Consequences: Shuch disagrees with Traphagan here, believing that quantifying the social impact of contact, however flawed, is a step in the right direction and invites Traphagan to collaborate on refining the scale.

Shuch concludes by suggesting a re-purposing of the Rio Scale for strategic decision-making, merit ranking of SETI cases, and comparative assessment of research proposals, rather than solely focusing on broad social impact.

Rio Scale Re-think by Richard J Legault

Richard J. Legault critically examines the Rio Scale, adopted by the SETI Permanent Committee (SPC) of the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) in 2003. He notes that the scale was intended to convey the credibility and potential impact of claimed detections to the public and media. Legault acknowledges Traphagan's criticisms that the scale is "utterly meaningless" as a measure of broad social impact, but argues that Traphagan's reviews "only look at the empty half of the glass." Legault contends that the Rio Scale has substantial value as a decision-making tool for assessing merit and informing resource allocation, public outreach, and education.

Legault proposes a strategic re-purposing of the Rio Scale, shifting its objective from assessing broad social impact to serving as an index for ranking and comparing the relative merit or worthiness of SETI cases, discoveries, and research proposals. He suggests using a quantitative index based on evidential factors and a checklist of scientific tests to assess claims. Legault views such a scale as a testing guide and decision-making tool, essential for comparative publishing and promoting assessed results. He likens it to merit ranking systems used in job applicant selection, capital investment, insurance risk assessment, academic awards, and employee compensation.

Legault also suggests improving the Rio Scale by incorporating more factors from SETI literature related to criteria of artificiality and standards of proof. He believes that a higher score should reflect more satisfied authenticity criteria and met standards of proof, applicable to a wide range of SETI cases, from electromagnetic phenomena to UFO sightings and mythological curiosities.

Finally, Legault dismisses the "Parting Shot" concept of broad social impact as too vague for SETI, advocating instead for a focus on construction rather than demolition in the field.

Event Horizon

This section lists upcoming conferences and meetings relevant to SETI research, including Boskone 55, the Twenty-Fourth SETI League Annual Membership Meeting, Balticon, the Society of Amateur Radio Astronomers Conference, the World Science Fiction Convention, and the International Astronautical Congress, with dates and locations.

Members' Photos

Two photos are included: one of the Project Argus dish at VE3CGN, partially obscured by snow, and another showing Caltech students, faculty, and friends gathering to honor Physics professors emeritus Barry Barish and Kip Thorne, who shared the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics.

Support The SETI League

Readers are encouraged to support The SETI League through AmazonSmile, where a portion of purchases is donated to SETI research, and by renewing their memberships.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the assessment of SETI claims and the scientific process. The editorial stance is one of advocating for rigorous analysis, acknowledging the contributions of both established scientists and "outsiders," and promoting tools like the Rio Scale for evaluating evidence. There is a clear emphasis on the importance of scientific debate, the refinement of analytical tools, and the ongoing pursuit of SETI research, while also acknowledging the practicalities of membership and organizational support.