SearchLites - Vol 23 No 4

Magazine Overview

SearchLites, Volume 23, Number 4, Autumn 2017, is the quarterly newsletter of The SETI League, Inc. This issue features articles on the Great American Eclipse, the search for exoplanets and life, and critiques of scientific concepts and scales.

The Great American Eclipse of 2017

By H. Paul Shuch, Executive Director Emeritus

This article reflects on the American media's labeling of the August 21, 2017, solar eclipse as 'The Great American Eclipse.' Shuch recounts his personal experience observing the eclipse in central Tennessee with friends. He notes the cosmic coincidence of the Sun and Moon subtending the same apparent size in the sky, allowing for total eclipses. More significantly, he highlights the Moon's role in raising tides, which are believed to have been essential for the genesis of life on Earth. Shuch speculates that life on other worlds might also depend on large moons raising similar tides in their 'cosmic soup.' He then transitions to the search for exoplanets, mentioning the Kepler telescope's success in detecting thousands of planets, many in habitable zones. The upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to further advance this search, potentially detecting moons around exoplanets, which could be key to finding life. The article concludes with an optimistic outlook on future discoveries.

What Happens Next If We Find Proof of Space Aliens?

By Seth Shostak, Senior Astronomer, SETI Institute

Shostak addresses the public's perception and preparedness for the discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI). He references recent events that fueled speculation about alien life, such as the 'alien megastructure' around Tabby's Star, a signal detected by a Russian telescope, and signals from Ross 128. Despite these claims not panning out, he explores the question of what would happen if definitive proof were found. He notes that a survey indicated a significant portion of the public believes a discovery would be suppressed. Shostak outlines the established SETI protocols, which involve verification, publicity, and international consultation before any response. However, he argues that in reality, media sensationalism often precedes verification, making a controlled announcement unlikely. He then poses deeper questions about the long-term societal impact of discovering we are not alone, comparing it to historical discoveries like that of the Americas or Antarctica, and concludes that the ultimate consequences are incalculable and that we would know we are not unique or special.

What's the Matter!

By Dan Duda

This article, adapted from a Penn Central Mensa newsletter, discusses the challenges in reconciling particle physics and cosmology, particularly concerning the concepts of Dark Matter and Dark Energy. It begins by referencing the work of astronomer Vera Rubin on galaxy rotation curves, which showed stars maintaining a constant speed regardless of their distance from the galactic core, contrary to expectations based on visible matter. This led to the hypothesis of Dark Matter to account for the missing gravitational pull. The article also addresses the accelerating expansion of the universe, attributed to Dark Energy. Duda explains that these 'dark' components, making up 95% of the universe, are poorly understood and represent a significant gap in scientific knowledge, likening the situation to a 'Deus Ex Machina' solution. The article quotes Vera Rubin's analogy that the ratio of dark-to-light matter reflects our ignorance-to-knowledge, placing humanity in 'about third grade' of understanding.

SETI and the Meaningless Rio Scale

By John Traphagan

Traphagan critically analyzes the Rio Scale, a tool proposed by astronomers Ivan Almar and Jill Tarter to measure the social consequences of contact with extraterrestrial intelligence. The scale assesses signals based on discovery type, distance of origin, and phenomenon detected, assigning an 'importance' value. Traphagan argues that the Rio Scale is fundamentally flawed for several reasons. Firstly, it attempts to quantify social significance universally, ignoring the vast differences in how various social groups would perceive such an event. Secondly, the scale is not based on empirical evidence but on subjective assumptions, such as the comparison to the societal impact of an asteroid impact. He points to the lack of evidence for such widespread societal reactions and uses Percival Lowell's claims about Martian civilizations as an example of minimal impact. Thirdly, the scale is problematic from a data perspective, using an ordinal scale for interval data, making it difficult to determine the true meaning of rankings. Traphagan concludes that the Rio Scale is an amateurish and misguided attempt that trivializes and misrepresents the complex social consequences of potential ETI contact.

Editor's Note

Paul, in his editor's note, acknowledges John Traphagan's critique of the Rio Scale, agreeing that its assigned values can change over time. He notes that despite its weaknesses, the scale has a strength in reflecting how values assigned to detections evolve as further studies are conducted or as detections are falsified or become unreplicable.

Event Horizon

This section lists upcoming conferences and meetings relevant to SETI research, including the International Astronautical Congress, Philcon, and various science fiction conventions, spanning from September 2017 to October 2019.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the intersection of astronomy, cosmology, and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. The magazine consistently explores scientific discoveries, theoretical challenges (like Dark Matter and Dark Energy), and the societal implications of potential contact. The editorial stance, as evidenced by the articles and the editor's notes, is one of critical inquiry, encouraging rigorous scientific methodology while acknowledging the profound philosophical questions raised by SETI research. There is a clear emphasis on evidence-based reasoning and a skepticism towards unverified claims or poorly constructed theoretical frameworks, as demonstrated by the critique of the Rio Scale.