REALL News - Vol 09 No 07 - 2001

Magazine Overview

Title: The REALL News
Issue: Volume 9, Number 7
Date: July 2001
Attribution: "It's a very dangerous thing to believe in nonsense." -- James Randi

This issue of The REALL News features an article by Martin S. Kottmeyer titled "Saucer Expansion," which delves into the historical evolution of reported flying saucer sizes and its implications.

Saucer Expansion by Martin S. Kottmeyer

Kottmeyer begins by admitting he overlooked a facet of UFO belief evolution: the changing perceived size of flying saucers. He notes that while the idea of larger saucers after the movie *Close Encounters of the Third Kind* (1977) was known, he didn't initially investigate it.

The 1947 Wave: Small Saucers

A study by Ed Stewart of 1169 Canadian newspaper clippings from the 1947 flying saucer wave revealed that out of 125 reports with size information, the leading category was saucers 1-3 feet in size. When including comparisons to smaller objects like basketballs and golf balls, three-quarters (87 out of 125) of the reports described saucers as 3 feet or less. This finding is paralleled in American data; a study by Bloecher found that 53% (88 out of 164) of usable descriptions from the 1947 wave were 3 feet or less. Kottmeyer highlights the oddity: such small saucers would be unable to carry occupants of typical alien descriptions (grays, reptoids, mantis aliens) or even humans without miniaturization powers.

Explaining the Small Size in 1947

Kottmeyer speculates on reasons for the small size reports in 1947. He suggests that the media's literal interpretation of the phrase 'flying saucer,' possibly influenced by images of table-top cups and saucers, may have implanted a small size perception. The initial AP article on June 25, 1947, lacked size information, and the term 'object' was used vaguely. While Arnold later described objects as 'ships' or 'strange aircraft,' implying larger craft, the 'flying saucer' phrase dominated public perception. He also considers the possibility that people in 1947 favored the idea of saucers being secret weapons developed in the US. Possible influences include rumors of 'foo-balls' and 'foo-fighters' from World War 2, which were sometimes described as basketball-sized, or Robert Goddard's rocket experiments, which appeared small in photos compared to later rockets like the V-2 (46 feet long).

Early Airship Waves vs. 1947 Saucer Wave

Stewart's findings shed light on why occupant case reports (CE3Ks) were rare from the 1947 wave compared to earlier airship waves (1896-7). In the airship waves, the objects were explicitly seen as ships conveying passengers. In contrast, the 1947 saucers were perceived as mere 'objects,' leading to the assumption they were small and unlikely to land with occupants emerging.

The Shift to Larger Saucers

Kottmeyer then examines whether UFO sizes have changed. He references Jacques Vallee's work, which found French landing cases from 1954 to average 5 meters (about 15 feet) in diameter, while objects in flight could be much larger (up to 100 feet). These findings are inconsistent with the 1947 data, challenging the extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH) if UFOs are assumed to be consistent over time.

To investigate recent trends, Kottmeyer conducted a study of size descriptions of disk-shaped UFOs from the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC) database, from 1977 (the year of *Close Encounters of the Third Kind*) to March 2001. He notes that the 1977 cut-off was chosen due to the notion that Spielberg's movie popularized larger UFOs.

Recent UFO Size Data (1977-2001)

The NUFORC study reviewed 651 cases with usable descriptions. The results showed a dramatic shift: only 8% of recent reports were under 3 feet, compared to 58%-75% in the 1947 samples. Conversely, 39% of recent reports were over 100 feet, a fourfold increase from the 9% observed in 1947. Many descriptions deemed too vague for use included terms like 'large,' 'enormous,' 'giant,' and 'gigantic,' while 'small' was used infrequently.

Examples of large UFOs include comparisons to football fields and Tampa stadium. The article also mentions abduction crafts described as 'big, big,' such as the tractor-trailer truck-sized sphere of the Allagash case.

Implications of Size Change

Kottmeyer argues that the change in size distribution reflects a shift in beliefs about what saucers are. With UFOs now widely considered alien spacecraft, people who see smaller objects may doubt their significance. There's also a tendency to report sizes that align with preconceptions derived from high-profile cases or media like Spielberg's film. Hoaxers and attention-seekers are also likely to model their narratives on current beliefs.

He cites a prediction by David Clarke and Andy Roberts from their 1990 book *Phantoms of the Sky*: "Aerial UFO-type phenomena will continue to be reported but craft will be larger and more complex in shape and illumination."

Conclusion

Kottmeyer concludes that the inconsistency in saucer dimensions across studies challenges the idea of UFOs being a constant phenomenon, which is often used as an argument for the ETH. He suggests that while ETH theorists might offer excuses like subjectivity of size and distance, the fact remains that they don't typically predict such changes. The article ends by noting that the hybrid program requires increasing numbers of abductions, thus larger craft, but this doesn't imply a prediction of size changes.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The REALL News, as indicated by the quote from James Randi, appears to maintain a skeptical stance towards unsubstantiated claims, particularly those involving 'nonsense.' The article itself, while presenting data on UFO sightings, critically analyzes the evolution of perceptions and potential psychological or cultural influences rather than solely accepting the extraterrestrial hypothesis at face value. The recurring theme is the critical examination of anecdotal evidence and the search for rational explanations or at least a nuanced understanding of how beliefs and perceptions shape reports over time. The magazine seems to encourage critical thinking and a questioning approach to extraordinary claims.