1984 10 00 Popular Science SETI

Magazine Overview

Title: Popular Science
Issue Date: October 1984
Publisher: The WHAT'S NEW magazine
Cover Headline: NEW SEARCH FOR LIFE IN SPACE

This issue of Popular Science features a comprehensive article titled "New search for life in space" by Arthur Fisher, detailing NASA's ambitious 15-year program to search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI). The magazine also includes advertisements and articles on DIY home improvement tools.

New Search for Life in Space

The lead article explores the age-old question of whether humanity is alone in the universe. It highlights NASA's new, highly sophisticated 15-year program, which will utilize the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Goldstone Observatory and a powerful VAX computer system with advanced signal processors. This program aims to analyze radio frequencies from space with unprecedented detail, sifting through 74,000 narrow channels to find any unambiguous patterns that might signify intelligent life.

The article delves into the history of SETI, mentioning early efforts like Project Ozma, initiated by Frank Drake in 1960. Drake, now a professor of astronomy at Cornell University, used the National Radio Astronomy Observatory's 85-foot antenna to scan Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani for pulsed or coded radio signals. Despite numerous subsequent searches by various institutions in the U.S. and Soviet Union, no definitive signals have been detected.

The Drake Equation: The article explains the Drake Equation (N=R* Fp Np F1 Fi Fc L), which attempts to estimate the number of communicative technological civilizations in our galaxy. While the precise values for each factor are debated and have evolved over time, the product 'N' has remained relatively stable in some estimates.

The "Water Hole" and Frequency Selection: The optimal frequencies for communication are dictated by the laws of physics. The article discusses the "water hole" band, located between the spectral lines of hydrogen and hydroxyl ions, as a poetically symbolic and potentially advantageous region for searching for signals. The challenge lies in balancing the need for narrow channels to improve signal-to-noise ratio with the uncertainty of where a signal might appear.

Technical Challenges: Jill Tarter, a research astronomer at UC Berkeley, explains the technical hurdles. SETI requires detecting extremely narrow-bandwidth signals (a few hertz wide) that are unlikely to be natural phenomena. Current technology is being upgraded to achieve this, with plans for analyzers capable of processing millions of channels.

The Fermi Paradox and Hypotheses: The article addresses the Fermi Paradox, which questions the absence of observable extraterrestrial civilizations despite the high probability estimates. Several hypotheses are discussed:

1. Zoo Hypothesis: Aliens are observing Earth but choose not to interfere.
2. Cosmic Ethics: Aliens may be hesitant to contact us, viewing us as a potential 'cosmic disease' or as immature youngsters.
3. Non-existence/Self-Destruction: Advanced civilizations may not exist or may self-destruct before they can colonize extensively.
4. Unfavorable Conditions: Planetary conditions may become inhospitable for life before advanced civilizations can develop or colonize.

Colonization and the Asteroid Belt: The concept of 'star-hopping' and galactic colonization is explored, with Michael Papagiannis suggesting that if colonization has occurred, it might be concentrated in the asteroid belt for access to resources. He argues that if colonization began billions of years ago, the galaxy should be teeming with life.

Skepticism and Hope: While some, like Ben Zuckerman, have shifted from agnosticism to a belief that advanced civilizations might be rare, they still support continued searching. The article notes that even if no signals are found, knowing that humanity might be alone would have profound implications for our understanding of ourselves and our future behavior.

The SETI Program's Structure: The current SETI program involves a five-year R&D phase to test systems and a subsequent 10-year search period. The detection of even one signal would answer fundamental questions about life's nature and distribution in the universe.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The magazine's stance, as reflected in this article, is one of scientific inquiry and cautious optimism regarding the search for extraterrestrial life. It presents the arguments for and against the existence of ETI, acknowledges the scientific and technical challenges, and highlights the significance of the ongoing NASA-led SETI program. The editorial tone encourages exploration and the pursuit of fundamental questions about our place in the cosmos, while also grounding the discussion in scientific methodology and historical context. The article emphasizes that even a negative result (knowing we are alone) would be a significant finding.