Skeptics Predictions - 2006

Magazine Overview

This document is a press release from the Phoenix Skeptics, detailing their "Skeptics Predictions for 2006." It was issued on December 3, 2005, and covers the group's fourteenth annual prognostication experiment. The release provides contact information for Michael A. Stackpole.

Predictions for 2005 and Hit Rate

The Phoenix Skeptics reported a successful 2005, with 45 out of 56 predictions being correct, resulting in a hit rate of 80.4%. Their "Hall of Fame" predictions, which are consistently accurate, had a 92% hit rate with 12 out of 13 correct. Among their hits in 2005 were Britney Spears' marital issues, the death of Chief Justice Renquist, a spike in housing prices in the Valley of the Sun, the emergence of a new flu pandemic, and a devastating hurricane season.

Thesis and Methodology

The core thesis of the Phoenix Skeptics' experiment is that a group of reasonably well-informed individuals can accurately predict near-future events without resorting to supernatural abilities. They claim their hit ratio surpasses that of professional psychics, questioning whether psychics are either not well-informed or their powers are faulty. For their tenth year, they slightly shifted their format but continued with their predictions and "Hall of Fame" category.

Hall of Fame Predictions

These are predictions considered highly likely to continue being true:

1. Jesus Christ will again forego his return to this world.
2. A major sports figure will be involved in a sex scandal.
3. O. J. Simpson's search for his ex-wife's murderer will be fruitless this year.
4. Last year's winner of the World Series will not repeat in this year.
5. Last year's winner of the Superbowl will not repeat this year.
6. Scientists will discover a new comet.
7. Advances in cloning technology will fuel an ethics debate.
8. Abortion will become a hot topic of debate.
9. Death will haunt the House of Windsor.
10. A sex scandal will end a politician's career.
11. Major new dinosaur species will be discovered.
12. Bigfoot and Yeti will elude capture.
13. The age of the Universe will continue to get older.

Predictions for 2006 and Beyond

The document lists over fifty predictions categorized by topic:

World News

1. A Bird Flu Pandemic fails to emerge.
2. China does not, as yet, foreclose on America's debt.
3. Saddam Hussein is convicted.
4. Osama bin Laden eludes capture.
5. No major terrorist attack in the United States.
6. Democracy continues to elude Saudi citizenry.
7. Incidence of severe food poisoning is a suspected terrorist attack.

Energy News

8. Alternate fuel vehicles make strides in 2006.
9. Nuclear power gains in popularity.
10. Gas Prices soar in the summer of 2006.
11. New source of natural gas is discovered.
12. World shortage of solar power units narrows energy options in the USA.

Politics and the Economy

13. The "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq" fails to produce results.
14. Stock market tops 11,000.
15. Major retail chain disappears.
16. Affordable mortgages are no longer affordable.
17. The Alito confirmation goes on to victory.
18. Immigration reforms stall.
19. US Government continues to deny the reality of Global Warming.
20. The New Orleans diaspora is not reversed.
21. High-ranking political officials indicted.
22. Dick Cheney develops torturous health problems.

Elections 2006

23. Voting fraud charges overshadow US elections.
24. Republicans are shocked in November election aftermath.
25. Sheriff Joe Arpaio reelected, but is disappointed in the lack of a coronation.
26. Arizona's Governor is reelected.
27. Podcasts play a role in the 2006 elections.

Science, Technology and Weather

28. Scientists discover new planet.
29. Archeological find expands human family tree.
30. Nanotechnology produces a big payoff.
31. New Computer virus cripples email servers.
32. The popularity of Linux/Unix operating systems continues to grow.
33. The incidence of Sexually-Transmitted Diseases rises.
34. Ecological disaster devastates China.
35. US Heartland shaken by killer earthquake.
36. Hurricane menace gains strength in the 2006 season.
37. Promising therapy for obesity brightens the future.

Religion and Intelligent Design

38. Intelligent design is crushed in court.
39. Further sex scandals rock the Catholic Church.
40. The Flying Spaghetti Monster controversy continues.
41. Major figure in Christianity indicted.
42. Mainstream Christianity revolts against dictates of Fundamentalists.
43. John-Paul II becomes a Saint.
44. Decline in the number of Catholic priests causes reversal on Vatican anti-gay prohibitions.
45. The Church of Scientology continues on Cruise control.
46. Pat Robertson continues to be plagued by foot-in-mouth disease.
47. Muslim mainstream denounces terrorism.

Popular Culture and Sports

48. Shocking revelations rewrite the story of Marilyn Monroe's death.
49. Americans come to rely on unconventional sources for news.
50. Hollywood starlet's unconventional behavior shocks America.
51. Arizona Cardinals show little improvement in 2006.
52. The Suns advance in the playoffs.
53. The Diamondbacks chase the playoffs.
54. Confidence in the news media hits new low.
55. Newspapers continue to decline in popularity.
56. Curtain call for a popular acting icon.
57. Female star takes a much younger boy-toy for a lover.
58. Michael Jackson returns to the United States.
59. Portable video increases in popularity.
60. Martha Stewart's career slips into remission.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme throughout the document is the Skeptics' belief in the power of informed prediction based on rational analysis rather than supernatural or pseudoscientific means. They position themselves as a rational counterpoint to what they perceive as less credible sources of information, such as professional psychics and tabloid journalism. The editorial stance is one of confident skepticism, emphasizing empirical accuracy and informed foresight. The document concludes with a jab at supermarket tabloid psychics, asserting the Skeptics' own predictive accuracy will be superior.