Skeptics Predictions - 1996

Magazine Overview

This document is a press release from the Phoenix Skeptics, dated November 18, 1995, detailing their predictions for the year 1996. The organization claims to have a successful track record, reporting a 61% hit rate for their 1995 predictions. The document outlines their core belief that informed individuals can predict future events without supernatural abilities and contrasts their success rate with that of professional psychics.

Predictions for 1996

The bulk of the document is a comprehensive list of 54 predictions categorized into several sections:

World & National Politics:

1. The Republican revolution will falter, mirroring Bob Dole's presidential campaign.
2. The President will win re-election with less than 50% of the popular vote.
3. China will threaten to invade Taiwan.
4. US-Mexico relations will become strained.
5. NATO peacekeepers will fail to bring peace to the Balkans.
6. More scandals will rock the LAPD.
7. The LA District Attorney's office will win a case.
8. Domestic terrorism will increase, targeting the IRS.
9. Highway fatalities will decrease despite rising speed limits.
10. Cybercriminals will evade Congressional regulation.
11. Abortion will be a key issue in the elections.
12. The Christian Coalition will peak and face backlash.
13. A new dollar coin will be introduced.
14. Militia-related violence will overshadow the Atlanta Olympics.
15. Communism will see a resurgence in Russian politics.

Local Politics & News:

16. Joe Arpaio will seek corporate sponsorship for his office.
17. J. Fife Symington will continue to model his political career after Evan Mecham.
18. Terry Goddard will run for Governor again.
19. Governor Hull will see no need to redecorate her office.
20. A severe heat wave will cause power problems.
21. A major public transit innovation will occur in the Valley.
22. Libertarians will continue to gain ground in local politics.
23. Posse misconduct will tarnish Arpaio's image.

Personalities:

24. Boris Yeltsin will join Lenin in retirement.
25. O. J. Simpson's search for golf courses will not find the killer of Goldman and Brown.
26. A divorce will occur at Buckingham Palace.
27. Elvis Presley will not be resurrected, despite the splits of Lisa Marie Presley and Michael Jackson.
28. Janet Reno will not be included in the post-election cabinet.
29. Yassir Arafat will survive an assassination attempt.
30. A wishful thinking: Roar and Roseanne will find true love.

Sports:

31. The LA Cardinals will get a new coach.
32. The Cardinals will win a game.
33. The Phoenix Suns will be eliminated early in the playoffs.
34. The 1996 Super Bowl will be a disappointment.
35. The Braves will not repeat as World Series champions.

Business and Economics:

36. The stock market will undergo a major adjustment.
37. The 'Olestra war' will begin.
38. A major Internet hoax will be reported as real news.
39. New players will enter the personal computer market, but their products will fail.
40. A major automotive recall will occur.
41. The Dow Jones Index will reach 5500.
42. Encyclopedia Britannica will be rebranded as Encyclopedia Gates.

Arts & Entertainment:

43. Romance films will be more successful at the box office than sex-themed films.
44. The art world will be disrupted by forgery scandals.
45. There will be a trend towards nude opera and theatre productions.
46. TV talk shows will begin to decline in popularity.
47. Pathologists involved in the 'Alien Autopsy' case will be sued for malpractice.

Science:

48. Significant advances will be made in artificial blood.
49. Progress will be made in determining if neutrinos have mass.
50. Cold fusion will regain media attention.
51. Discoveries from space telescopes will challenge the scientific community.
52. The controversy surrounding global warming will intensify.
53. A major advance will be made in AIDS vaccine development.
54. 1996 will be known as the 'Summer of Killer Bees'.
55. An Earth-based telescope will be developed that rivals Hubble's capabilities at a lower cost.

Past Performance and Methodology

The document highlights the Phoenix Skeptics' experiment in prognostication, now in its sixth year. They claim a 60% plus hit rate in the current year (1995), with 33 out of 54 predictions correct with two weeks remaining. Notable successes in 1995 included the death of Rose Kennedy, the Newt Gingrich ethics scandal, Steve Forbes' entry into the presidential race, and the retention of Arizona's income tax. They acknowledge missing the O. J. Simpson verdict, attributing it to their use of critical thinking skills rather than supernatural means. Their core hypothesis is that a group of informed individuals can accurately predict near-future events without resorting to psychic powers, and their hit rate is presented as evidence that professional psychics may be either faulty or poorly informed.

Contact and Location

The press release provides contact information for Michael A. Stackpole at (602) 596-9777 and lists the Phoenix Skeptics' mailing address as Box 62792, Phoenix, AZ 85082-2792.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme is the validation of rational prediction based on informed analysis, contrasting with pseudoscience and supernatural claims. The editorial stance is one of confident skepticism, asserting the superiority of critical thinking and informed speculation over psychic abilities. They position themselves as a group that uses logical deduction to forecast events, challenging the credibility of those who claim paranormal insight. The document concludes with a confident assertion that their hit rate will surpass that of supermarket tabloid psychics.