1980 02 00 OMNI - Oberg - UFO Update

Magazine Overview

Title: UFO UPDATE
Issue: 32
Publisher: OMNI
Date: Undetermined (appears to be from the late 1970s or early 1980s based on content).
Cover Headline: ALONE AGAIN

This issue of OMNI delves into the complex and often contentious debate surrounding the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) and the phenomenon of Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs). The cover story, "Alone Again," by James Oberg, challenges the widespread assumption that life, and by extension, intelligent civilizations, are common in the galaxy. It contrasts the optimistic views of many UFO proponents and some astronomers with a resurging scientific skepticism.

The Search for ETI and the UFO Phenomenon

The article begins by recounting the initial hopes of astronomers in the 1970s who pointed high-powered radiotelescopes toward the stars, searching for signs of intelligent life through projects like SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence). The expectation was that if planets were common, so too would be life and civilization. This optimism was shared by many laypeople and UFO enthusiasts who believed that extraterrestrial civilizations were not only possible but were already visiting Earth.

Robert K. G. Temple, in 1976, asserted that believing humanity was alone was "intolerably arrogant." Similarly, UFO lecturer Stanton Friedman famously declared that UFOs were not merely unidentified objects but "flying saucers" – "somebody else's spacecraft" – providing overwhelming evidence of visitation.

Numerous opinion polls conducted over the decade indicated a public consensus favoring the existence of ETI. However, astronomers involved in SETI largely remained hostile to claims of alien visitation, with many admitting in a 1976 poll that UFOs might be worthy of study but unwilling to conduct the research themselves.

The 'Alone Again' Hypothesis

A third point of view, which has gained traction, suggests that humankind may indeed be alone in the universe. This notion is met with strong opposition from UFO buffs and concerns SETI astronomers about the potential waste of time and resources. The article highlights a two-day symposium held at the University of Maryland in late 1978, titled "Implications of Our Failure to Observe Extraterrestrials."

The consensus emerging from this colloquium was that if we extrapolate our own civilization's development across the galaxy, we should not exist. Dr. Sebastian von Hoerner of the Green Bank Radio Observatory stated that if ETI were out there, it should be overwhelmingly obvious. Michael Hart, a Texas astronomer and cochairman of the symposium, argued that if ETI existed, Earth should have been colonized millions of years ago.

This perspective is rooted in the "Fermi Paradox," posed by physicist Enrico Fermi: "Well, then, where are they?" ETI advocates propose that such civilizations might refrain from or be incapable of interstellar flight, while UFO proponents suggest they do visit but avoid contact.

Scientific Re-evaluation and Skepticism

The Maryland conference examined both arguments, finding them wanting. Papers by space scientists like Freeman Dyson and Ronald Bracewell demonstrated the feasibility of interstellar flight and suggested a timetable for galactic occupation, estimating it would take millions of years. However, recent scientific discoveries have cast doubt on earlier assumptions.

Robert Sheaffer, a computer specialist, presented unpublished details of famous UFO sightings, suggesting they were less impressive than popularly portrayed. He also posited that unexplained UFO reports are merely "noise" resulting from unreliable memory and eyewitness testimony.

Dr. Ben Zuckerman, a conference organizer and former conductor of the OZMA-2 radio search, expressed a more cautious view. He noted that while compelling scientific arguments for ETI are scarce, the evidence doesn't strongly support its existence. He found Carl Sagan's assertion that life and intelligence are natural, inevitable extensions of stellar and planetary evolution to be "too strong."

Scientific discoveries have further undermined the case for widespread ETI. The astrometric evidence for large planets around nearby stars has been discredited due to instrument error. The link between slow stellar rotations and planetary systems has also been questioned. While the existence of sunlike stars billions of years older than ours has been confirmed, providing ample time for alien colonization, the origin of life on Earth, the progression of evolution, and the rise of intelligence remain problematic and uncertain.

Factors like internal planetary variations, solar variability, passage through interstellar dust clouds, and proximity to supernovas make the stability of a hospitable planet over the billions of years needed for life to develop less likely. Therefore, the article concludes, there are no scientific reasons to assume a priori that other intelligent beings must exist.

Divisions within the UFO Community

The article notes that the idea of ETI is anathema to pro-ETI astronomers and UFO buffs. However, the UFO camp itself is critically split. Several leading spokesmen have abandoned the "alien spacecraft" theory. Dr. J. Allen Hynek, a former air force consultant on UFOs, described the alien explanation as "naïve and simplistic."

Dr. Hynek, who founded the Center for UFO Studies, believes UFOs represent a real phenomenon but is unimpressed with the ETI explanation. He stated in 1977 that the "spaceship concept doesn't explain about UFO phenomena" and suggested that they might be "much more metaterrestrial than extraterrestrial." This concept links UFOs to psychic phenomena, poltergeists, parallel realities, and other planes of existence, theories rejected by modern science but supported by figures like Jacques Vallee, John Keel, Peter Kor, and Alan Greenfield.

Conclusion: A Three-Way Battle

The debate over ETI continues as a three-way battle with shifting alliances. The concepts remain exciting, but the hard data is sparse. The article concludes by suggesting that neutral observers can watch the conflict with amusement, likening the claims and counterclaims to "thermonuclear bombs." The ultimate amusement, it posits, would be for the ETs themselves, if they exist, to be silently observing Earth's civilizations and seeking criteria to confirm the existence of terrestrial intelligence, suggesting this debate might be "the final exam in that test."

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

This issue of OMNI strongly leans towards a skeptical stance regarding the widespread existence of extraterrestrial intelligence and the interpretation of UFOs as alien spacecraft. It highlights scientific re-evaluation, the challenges in detecting ETI, and the complexities and internal divisions within the UFO community. The editorial stance appears to favor empirical evidence and scientific rigor over speculative theories, while acknowledging the enduring fascination with the possibility of life beyond Earth.