North Texas Skeptic - Vol 21 No 11 - 2007

Magazine Overview

No Free Lunch: Why William Dembski thinks mathematics proves ID (and why he's wrong)

This article, written by John Brandt, President of The North Texas Skeptics, critically examines William Dembski's argument that the "No Free Lunch" (NFL) theorems from computer science disprove evolutionary theory. Brandt explains that the NFL theorems, which state that no algorithm can consistently outperform random search averaged over all possible problems, are often misused as a "judo argument" against evolution. He clarifies that while the second law of thermodynamics does not prohibit local decreases in entropy, Dembski's argument relies on the idea that living things are "irreducibly complex" and that evolution cannot optimize biological fitness. Brandt refutes this by explaining that the NFL theorems are technical and easily misunderstood. He likens search problems to finding a path through a graph and optimization problems to finding the best solution for a function. Brandt argues that while NFL theorems hold true for general-purpose algorithms, they do not preclude the possibility of specialized algorithms or processes, like evolution, from efficiently solving real-world problems. He points out that computer programmers use "evolutionary algorithms" that mimic biological evolution to solve complex optimization problems, demonstrating that evolution can indeed work. Brandt concludes that Dembski's argument is flawed because it ignores the practical success of evolutionary algorithms and the nature of real-world problems, which are not always random.

The Judo Argument and Thermodynamics

Brandt begins by describing the "judo argument," a tactic used by creationists to claim evolution violates established scientific laws. The most common example is the violation of the second law of thermodynamics. Brandt explains that this law does not prohibit local decreases in entropy, such as the formation of a living organism, as long as there is a greater entropy increase elsewhere, like the absorption of sunlight by plants.

Intelligent Design and Irreducible Complexity

Brandt addresses the fundamental argument of Intelligent Design (ID), which posits that living organisms possess "irreducibly complex" features that could not have evolved naturally. He notes that ID proponents often argue that no plausible evolutionary pathway has been found for such features, which he characterizes as a "God of the gaps" argument. Brandt suggests that it would be more compelling if there were a scientific law, like the second law of thermodynamics, that definitively proved irreducible complexity.

The No Free Lunch Theorems Explained

Brandt delves into the NFL theorems, which Dembski claims prove evolution is impossible. He explains that these theorems apply to two types of problems in computer science: search and optimization. A search problem involves finding a path from a starting state to a goal state, often represented by a graph. An optimization problem involves finding a set of values that maximize or minimize a mathematical function. Brandt clarifies that the NFL theorems state that no general-purpose algorithm can consistently outperform a blind search or random combination approach when averaged over all possible problems.

Refuting Dembski's Application of NFL Theorems

Brandt argues that Dembski misapplies the NFL theorems by equating biological fitness with a function to be optimized and natural selection with an optimization algorithm. He contends that while the theorems are mathematically sound, they do not invalidate evolution. Just as humans can solve real-world search and optimization problems despite the NFL theorems, evolution can solve the problem of optimizing biological fitness. Brandt emphasizes that real-world optimization often requires a "good enough" solution, not necessarily the absolute best, making it more feasible. He also highlights the use of evolutionary algorithms in computer science as evidence that processes mimicking evolution are effective.

The Limits of General-Purpose Algorithms

Brandt concludes that Dembski's argument is flawed because it assumes that a general-purpose algorithm is required for evolution to work. He suggests that Dembski is aware that evolutionary algorithms are effective but incorrectly charges that programmers "smuggle" solutions into them. Brandt asserts that evolutionary algorithms are used precisely because they are often the only known technique for finding good solutions to complex problems, providing evidence that evolution is a valid mechanism.

An Encounter with Medical Dowsing

This personal account by Kristine Danowski, Vice President of The North Texas Skeptics, details her skeptical experience with a man named John who claimed to be a medical dowser and an ordained minister of a church combining Cherokee religion with Christianity. Danowski recounts attending a lecture where John demonstrated his dowsing abilities, using a forked rod to detect "impurities in the blood" characteristic of disease. She describes how John's "diagnoses" were vague and relied on common ailments, resembling cold reading techniques. When Danowski volunteered to be dowsed, she refused to confirm John's guesses, leading him to claim she had spleen and ankle problems, despite her never having had them. Danowski points out that John's claims were unspecific and that he was unable to provide any verifiable medical information. She also notes that John and his wife were reportedly facing charges for practicing medicine without a license. Danowski concludes that medical dowsing, as demonstrated, is a pseudoscientific practice that preys on people's beliefs and lacks any scientific validation.

The Demonstration

Danowski describes the dowsing demonstration, where John used a large, forked rod and asked the volunteer to "center" herself. He moved the rod over the volunteer's body, pausing at certain areas and asking if she had experienced problems there. Danowski observed that John's questions were generic, such as asking about headaches or neck problems (to which the volunteer admitted having whiplash), and that he claimed success when the volunteer confirmed a problem, while moving on when she did not.

Danowski's Skeptical Participation

When Danowski was asked to be dowsed, she declined to cooperate, repeatedly telling John, "You're the psychic. You tell me." Despite her lack of confirmation, John continued, claiming to feel vibrations from her spleen. Danowski notes that she had never had spleen-related medical problems. She also recounts John's claim of her having ankle problems and his overall assessment that she was "very, very healthy."

Confronting the Dowser

After the demonstration, Danowski explained to John and his wife that he was using cold reading techniques, claiming hits and ignoring misses. She questioned whether he had ever been scientifically tested or had his diagnoses confirmed by medical professionals. John and Diane appeared surprised by these questions and stated they were trying to help people. Danowski suggested that if they were sincere, they would undergo independent testing. She also learned that John and Diane later moved due to charges of practicing medicine without a license.

Energy and Prayer

This section, written by John Blanton, Webmaster of The North Texas Skeptics, addresses claims of paranormal abilities and pseudoscientific practices that have contacted the organization, particularly in relation to a $12,000 reward offered for verifiable demonstrations of such phenomena.

Shirley's Claim of Energy Reading

Shirley, from Nacogdoches, claims to have developed brain damage from nuclear chemical waste and, since 2002, has been able to see and understand "energy patterns" that reveal a person's personality, childhood, and recent experiences. The Skeptics are negotiating with her for a meaningful demonstration to evaluate her claim. The article notes that thus far, all claimants have failed to demonstrate their abilities.

Bob's Claim of Prayer Healing

Bob, from Long Island, New York, claims he can cure people through the power of prayer and wants the Skeptics to gather sick people for him to demonstrate his abilities. Blanton clarifies that Bob misunderstands the process, stating that claimants must arrange their own tests according to the Challenge statement, not expect the organization to gather subjects for them.

Rosemary Hunter's Claim

Blanton recalls a previous claimant, Rosemary Hunter, who claimed God talked to her and allowed her to read people's minds. He reminds readers that claimants must prove their abilities, and that even if she could read his mind, she would still need to prove divine communication. Rosemary's case was recounted in the August issue.

Skepticism Towards Claims

The section emphasizes the Skeptics' rigorous approach to evaluating claims, requiring verifiable demonstrations and adherence to testing protocols. It implies that many claimants misunderstand the nature of scientific testing and the burden of proof required.

Skeptic Ink

This section features a cartoon by Prasad Golla and John Blanton. The cartoon depicts three panels. The first panel shows a character stating, "Al Gore is an idiot and a fraud." The second panel reads, "Global warming is a pseudoscience, a liberal hoax." The third panel features a character saying, "However, I must admit I made a bundle off my beach front property in Orlando."

What's New

This section, by Robert Park, presents clippings of interest, including commentary on the 50th anniversary of Sputnik and the discovery of the Van Allen belts, and a piece on science being held hostage to politics.

Sputnik at 50: Its Infernal Beeping Drove Us Nuts

This piece reflects on the 50th anniversary of Sputnik, noting its initial embarrassment due to radiation measurements and the Vanguard debacle. It highlights the subsequent discovery of the Van Allen belts by Explorer I, marking the U.S. lead in space exploration. The author argues that space machines, rather than animals or astronauts, are responsible for expanding human knowledge and enriching lives.

Political Science: Science Held Hostage to Politics

This segment discusses how Sputnik II's data recorder malfunctioned, and scientists' desire to delay the launch for repairs was overridden by Khrushchev, who wanted to announce a success at an international conference. This event is presented as an early example of science being held hostage to politics.

Malicious: Author of Fraudulent Paper Sues Critic

This report details the ongoing saga of a study claiming prayers from strangers doubled IVF success. One author disavowed the work, another faced plagiarism charges, and a third went to federal prison for fraud. Bruce Flamm, who uncovered issues with the study, faced a defamation lawsuit from one of the authors, Kwang Y. Cha. The article provides a link to the infamous paper.

Energy and Prayer (Continued)

This continuation of John Blanton's section discusses further developments regarding claims of paranormal abilities. It mentions that Shirley's evaluation is ongoing and that Bob has been informed about the testing requirements. The section reiterates the Skeptics' commitment to rigorous testing and their experience in eliminating claimants who fail to demonstrate their purported abilities.

References

The newsletter provides three references, including links to the Skeptics' Challenge page, a story about a failed claimant named Russell Shipp, and a link to an article related to a challenge.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue of The North Texas Skeptic include the critical examination of pseudoscientific arguments (particularly Intelligent Design and its misuse of scientific concepts), the skeptical investigation of paranormal claims (such as medical dowsing, energy reading, and prayer healing), and the commentary on the intersection of science and politics. The editorial stance is clearly one of skepticism towards unsubstantiated claims, advocating for scientific rigor, evidence-based reasoning, and systematic testing. The organization actively challenges those who make extraordinary claims, offering rewards for verifiable demonstrations, and educates its readers about common logical fallacies and pseudoscientific tactics.