North Texas Skeptic - Vol 17 No 06 - 2003

Magazine Overview

Title: The North Texas Skeptic
Issue: Volume 17, Number 6
Date: June 2003
Publisher: The North Texas Skeptics
Country: USA
Language: English

Comments on Astrology by John Blanton

This section presents correspondence regarding a proposed test for astrology. Jagdish Maheshri, Ph.D. of Astro Insight, has contacted The North Texas Skeptics (NTS) for their input on a protocol to test his astrological claims. Maheshri is seeking to define a fair and scientific procedure for a "paranormal challenge" related to astrology.

Maheshri's claim is based on providing astrology-based readings for a group of five unknown subjects using only their birth information (date, time, place). A double-blinded test methodology will be employed. He has attached material detailing the preliminary procedural details, definitions of terms, and probability calculations. According to his calculations, achieving 5 hits out of 10 runs has a 3.2% probability, while 5 hits out of 20 runs has a 37% probability. He questions the validity criteria and how much improvement over a 50 percent probability is needed.

John Blanton, Secretary of The North Texas Skeptics, outlines the protocol for testing Maheshri's method. The test requires accurate birth information for ten subjects (to the minute and city-level accuracy). This anonymized information would be given to Maheshri to compute horoscopes. The NTS would then separate the ten scripts into two groups of five, make five copies of each script, and mix them with four other scripts from the same group. Each subject would then attempt to pick their own script from the collection of five. A successful test would be if five or more subjects out of ten pick their own scripts. Blanton notes that by chance alone, there is about a 3% chance of success, and outcomes beating odds of twenty to one (5%) are considered statistically significant.

Blanton also raises a fundamental question about astrology: the necessity of knowing the exact birth time and location. He explains that this information fixes the position of stars and planets relative to the horizon and each other. He questions the long-term predictive power of a single event (birth) on future events, given the dynamic and unstable nature of life. He uses the example of his grandfather's near-fatal shooting, where a slight variation in the bullet's path could have drastically altered his lineage.

Blanton contrasts this with the idea of a horoscope providing useful information. He suggests that if an astrologer needs to interview a subject to write a decent horoscope, then a close friend might offer similar advice without consulting the stars. He posits that for astrology to have power, it must reveal something about the subject that cannot be discerned from birth information alone, implying an element of clairvoyance.

He references James Randi's past demonstration where identical, generalized horoscopes were given to students, and most believed they matched their descriptions, highlighting how easily people can see themselves reflected in vague statements.

The NTS is currently collecting birth information for ten subjects for the test. They acknowledge that obtaining accurate birth records can be challenging. They encourage participation from individuals over twenty years old.

Experiments with astrology by Jagdish Maheshri

Jagdish Maheshri, Ph.D. in chemical engineering, presents his perspective on astrology, framing it as a potential science that has been neglected and often ridiculed. He notes that while astrology has ancient roots and was once respected, its scientific basis has been questioned due to a lack of rigorous testing and verification.

Maheshri argues that astrology, when treated as a science, can offer valuable insights into individual lives and collective human evolution. He suggests that it can help people understand their strengths, weaknesses, and life choices, and even provide meaning. He posits that the exponential technological growth of the past century can be explained through astrology's understanding of planetary influences on collective human consciousness.

He recounts his own journey into astrology, starting with an investigation into its relationship with solid geometry in the late sixties. Despite initial challenges in finding refined rules, he was impressed by some applications of astrological correlations. He developed a method for computing geocentric planetary positions using a computer and later refined his horoscope interpretation techniques. He discovered a new approach in the early nineties that revolutionized his ability to time predictions, significantly increasing his confidence and success rate.

Maheshri asserts that the current state of astrology is hindered by practitioners lacking scientific backgrounds, preventing it from being treated as a science. He believes that significant resources are needed for research, which is unlikely without funding. He also highlights the difficulty in obtaining accurate birth times, which is crucial for natal astrology. He suggests that if astrology proves successful in individual chart readings, hospitals might be compelled to keep more accurate birth records.

He has authored a book titled "It's all in Timing," which details his "research-based nine-fold horoscope technique." He believes that astrology can be a tool for personal guidance, a second opinion, or a confirmation of existing ideas, helping individuals make better life choices and understand favorable and unfavorable periods.

Skepticism's ancient origins (Part I) by Daniel R. Barnett

Daniel R. Barnett traces the origins of skeptical thought back to ancient Greece, predating modern skeptics like James Randi and Michael Shermer. He explains that in ancient times, skepticism emerged as a philosophical system distinct from Stoicism and Epicureanism.

Democritus: From atomism to doubts concerning the senses

Democritus (ca. 460-360 BCE) is credited with developing a philosophical system based on the concept of atoms, building upon the ideas of his teacher Leucippus. Democritus taught that all matter is composed of indestructible atoms and that even thought could be explained as the movement of atoms. He distinguished between sense perception and understanding, concluding that senses provide uncertain knowledge as they are subjective and change with the disposition of the body and external influences. He famously stated, "by the senses we know in truth nothing sure, but only something that changes according to the disposition of the body and of the things that enter into it or resist it."

Protagoras: Man as the measure of all things

Protagoras (ca. 480-411 BCE), a Sophist philosopher, famously asserted that "man is the measure of all things, of the things that are, that they are, and of the things that are not, that they are not." This relativistic statement implies that truth is subjective and limited by individual capabilities and perceptions. He denied the existence of universal truths, stating that a thing has as many attributes as there are people who perceive it. Protagoras also extended his denial of absolutes to moral judgments, though he acknowledged law as a means of social order. He was accused of impiety for his views on the gods, as expressed in his book "On the Gods."

Pyrrho: Pursuing tranquility by suspending judgment

Pyrrho (ca. 361-270 BCE) sought to achieve tranquility (ataraxia) by suspending judgment. He was dismayed by the dogmatic nature of various philosophical schools. His approach involved opposing every proposition with an equal proposition, leading to a cessation of dogmatic assertions. Diogenes Laertius suggests that Pyrrho may have been influenced by Indian "naked wise men" (gymnosophistai) he encountered. The Lokayatas school in India, which emphasized sense perception and denied gods and an afterlife, and the Ajnanavada school, which practiced suspension of judgment, are noted as potentially contemporaneous philosophical movements.

Skeptic Ink (Comic)

This comic strip, by Prasad Golla and John Blanton, features a dialogue about pre-Columbian exploration claims, with one character dismissing them as "bunk" and another emphasizing the need to "Stamp out this nonsense before it gets out of hand."

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the critical examination of claims, particularly in the realm of astrology and ancient philosophical skepticism. The North Texas Skeptics, as evidenced by the content, maintain a stance that favors rigorous scientific testing, empirical evidence, and rational inquiry. They are open to investigating claims but insist on subjecting them to fair and systematic testing, rather than a priori rejection. The publication highlights the importance of distinguishing between belief and evidence-based understanding, as seen in the discussions on astrology and the historical exploration of skeptical thought.