The Newsletter of The North Texas Skeptics

Magazine Overview

This issue of "The Newsletter of The North Texas Skeptics," titled "The Skeptic," Volume 9 Number 7, dated July 1995, features two main articles: "The conspiracy museum" by Virginia Vaughn and "Apocalypse Someday" by R. A. Dousette. The newsletter's website is given as www.ntskeptics.org.

The conspiracy museum

Virginia Vaughn recounts a field trip taken by the North Texas Skeptics on June 17 to the Conspiracy Museum in downtown Dallas. The museum is located in the old Katy Railroad building. The visit included a tour of Dealy Plaza, a kiosk area, a display on the Lincoln assassination, and repeated viewings of the Zapruder film. The museum's director, according to Vaughn, believes Lincoln's murder was a government-mandated conspiracy involving two American presidents. The director also presented a theory about John Wilkes Booth's corpse becoming a mummy due to arsenic in embalming fluid reacting with embalming fluid, a mummy that subsequently vanished when testing was suggested.

Vaughn also details a conversation with an embalmer who confirmed that arsenic was used in embalming fluid until 30-40 years prior. The article then discusses the walking tour led by Ron Rice, a former state police officer, who presented his own theories about the Kennedy assassination and criticized the Sixth Floor Exhibit. Rice claimed the Plexiglas at the Sixth Floor Museum was to prevent visitors from seeing that Oswald could not have made the shots. Vaughn contacted Dr. Montgomery, Director of Interpretation at the Sixth Floor Museum, who stated the Plexiglas protects the artifact and that the museum strives for a balanced viewpoint. Montgomery explained the Zapruder film is not shown to children due to its graphic nature, but a research wing will be available for adults.

Rice's theory included a 'throwaway' first shot to divert attention, which Vaughn questions based on sniper tactics and Secret Service protocols. Rice's interest in conspiracy theories began at age 15 after reading conspiracy books. He was particularly influenced by the 'magic bullet' theory. When questioned by a young woman about government evidence, Rice dismissively stated, "No, because nobody believes them anymore." He was also belligerent when challenged on the head shot's trajectory. Vaughn notes Rice's attitude shifted when he learned she was a skeptic, comparing his belief to Eric Hoffer's description of a "true believer" needing to be suspicious.

Professor Josiah Thompson is quoted describing conspiracy theorists' work as an obsession and likening the assassination event to a religious experience with relics and pilgrimages. The article critiques Rice's dismissal of Gerald Posner's book "Case Closed," which Rice claims sold poorly and that Posner was compromised by the government. Posner's book is described as even-handed and well-researched. The article explains the appeal of conspiracy theories, suggesting they provide a sense of purpose to events that might otherwise seem senseless.

It discusses the 'jet effect' theory regarding the Kennedy assassination's head shot, citing Luis Alvarez and Penn & Teller. The museum's kiosks covered other conspiracies, including those of Martin Luther King and KAL Flight 007. Vaughn likens the museum experience to entering a church of a conspiracy cult, noting that people may find comfort in attributing bad events to malevolent forces rather than randomness. The article concludes by comparing conspiracy theorists' unwavering trust in secrecy to the Watergate conspiracy, where someone eventually revealed information.

Apocalypse Someday

R. A. Dousette's article, "Apocalypse Someday," examines dire predictions about the future, starting with a 1972 Time magazine scenario based on the Club of Rome's computer model, "The Limits to Growth." This report predicted a collapse by the mid-21st century due to population growth and resource scarcity, advocating for restrained economic growth. The energy crisis of the early 1970s made these predictions seem more plausible.

Dousette contrasts these predictions with the views of S. Fred Singer, a professor of Environmental Sciences, whom she heard speak at a 1972 Society of Actuaries convention. Singer dismissed the Club of Rome's report for ignoring economic effects and innovation, predicting a positive future. Dousette notes that Singer's predictions proved more accurate, as oil prices fell in the 1980s.

The article then focuses on Paul Ehrlich, author of "The Population Bomb" and "The Population Explosion." Dousette reviews Ehrlich's pessimistic views from his 1974 book "The End of Affluence," which predicted widespread starvation, energy shortages, and a collapse of resources by the 1970s or 1980s. Ehrlich recommended stockpiling food and preparing for a "nutritional disaster." He also identified countries like Japan and Brazil as "Miner's Canaries" for impending doom. Ehrlich predicted political upheaval, including the President seizing power during food riots. He foresaw a stock market collapse before 1985 and a general erosion of confidence in the market.

Ehrlich suggested a survival-oriented economy and alternatives like wind and solar energy, advising people to "Eat cold meals" and stockpile supplies. Dousette criticizes Ehrlich's predictions as exaggerated and lacking acknowledgment of human creativity. She notes that Nobelist Richard Feynman's definition of scientific integrity involves bending over backwards to show how one might be wrong, a standard Ehrlich fails to meet. The article points out contradictions in Ehrlich's work, such as his argument that overpopulation leads to communism while citing China's population control program as proof.

Ehrlich's worst-case scenario for the US involved using environmentally damaging insecticides, leading to a nuclear attack. The article questions why environmentalists are prone to overstatement, suggesting it sells publications. It references a 1975 Newsweek article on a potential Ice Age and a 1992 speculation on global warming, noting that some environmentalists prefer alarming news and even suggested journalists "self-censor" non-alarming environmental evidence. Al Gore is mentioned as advocating for such censorship.

The article discusses the environmental regulation of the Monterey Bay Unified Air Pollution Control District, questioning its necessity given the area's clean air and suggesting it creates jobs for politicians. It also touches on the idea that environmental regulation provides career opportunities, citing Tim Wirth and Mikhael Gorbachev entering environmental fields. The article notes that environmentalists reacted negatively to a balanced article on ozone depletion and were upset when the bald eagle was removed from the endangered species list.

Finally, the article details a controversy involving S. Fred Singer and Al Gore regarding an article on global warming published in Cosmos. Singer, a co-author, was accused by Julian Lancaster (linked to Al Gore's staff) of misusing Roger Revelle's name. A libel suit was settled in Singer's favor, with Lancaster retracting his statements and apologizing. Singer stated that Lancaster may have been driven by ideological views on global warming and that Gore had communicated with Lancaster before the defamatory actions.

The article concludes by noting that Paul Ehrlich, despite a poor track record of predictions, maintains a public profile and has been featured in media. S. Fred Singer is now president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP), an organization focused on environmental issues. Contact information for SEPP is provided.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are skepticism towards conspiracy theories and dire predictions, particularly those related to environmental collapse and overpopulation. The editorial stance is critical of what it perceives as exaggeration, fear-mongering, and a lack of scientific rigor in certain environmental and conspiracy-related discourse. The newsletter champions a rational, evidence-based approach, contrasting it with what it describes as the "true believer" mentality and the tendency to sensationalize potential disasters. The articles encourage critical thinking and a balanced perspective, questioning claims that lack empirical support or are presented with excessive hyperbole.