North Texas Skeptic - Vol 08 No 11 - 1994

Magazine Overview

Title: The Skeptic
Issue: Volume 8 Number 11
Date: November 1994

This issue of The Skeptic, published by The North Texas Skeptics, offers a range of articles examining various phenomena through a lens of critical thinking and scientific skepticism. The cover story, "Coincidences most times aren't" by Gina Kolata, explores how statistical principles demystify seemingly improbable events. Other articles delve into creationist arguments, the investigation of a purportedly haunted restaurant, critiques of health scams, and discussions on genetic engineering and media portrayals of the supernatural.

Coincidences most times aren't

Gina Kolata reports on the work of Harvard statisticians Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller, who spent over ten years analyzing thousands of coincidence stories. Their conclusion is that most coincidences can be explained by simple natural laws. They highlight the "Law of Very Large Numbers," which suggests that in a large enough sample, any event with a non-zero probability is likely to occur. They also introduce the "Law of Truly Large Numbers," illustrating that even rare events will eventually happen given enough time and population. The article uses the example of a woman winning the New Jersey lottery twice, which was initially presented as a 1-in-17 trillion event. However, a more thorough analysis revealed that the probability of *someone* in the United States winning twice in a lifetime was much higher, making it "practically a sure thing" over a seven-year period. The concept of "multiple end points" is also discussed, where a coincidence is only recognized after the fact, and many commonalities could be considered coincidences if not for the sheer number of possibilities. Diaconis emphasizes that while individual coincidences may not be convincing, their accumulation can lead people to believe in significance, yet he quotes the logical principle that "No number of flawed arguments produce a sound conclusion."

Creationism's youth kick

John Blanton reviews a presentation by Russell Humphreys, a physicist associated with the young-Earth creationist group Metroplex Institute of Origin Science (MIOS). Humphreys argues that the Earth and universe are only about 6,000 years old, presenting five points to limit the Earth's age. These include:

1. Galaxies: The rapid rotation of stars in spiral galaxies suggests they should become wound into flat disks within millions of years, contradicting the billions of years of the universe's age. The explanation that new stars create the spiral appearance is deemed difficult for the public to grasp.
2. Comets: The stability of a 5-billion-year-old solar system is questioned, as comets appear to be dying. The Oort cloud hypothesis, proposed to explain new comets, is met with skepticism by creationists.
3. Erosion: Humphreys claims that continents should be eroded flat within 15 million years, suggesting they were formed by a great flood thousands of years ago.
4. Salt: Rivers continuously deposit salt into oceans, but evaporation only removes water, leading to the question of why oceans are not much saltier after millions of years.
5. Population: Given an estimated 100,000-year duration of the stone age and an average human population, Humphreys questions the whereabouts of the billions of graves.

Blanton also mentions a discussion about the decaying speed of light conjecture, attributed to Barry Setterfield, which creationists use to explain seeing distant objects in a young universe. The article notes that Glenn Morton, a former young-Earth creationist, now renounces the position due to evidence and urges others to do the same. MIOS Chairman Don Patton expressed willingness to address the North Texas Skeptics.

Ghost story: part I & II

Mike Sullivan and Virginia Vaughn recount the North Texas Skeptics' visit to the Catfish Plantation Restaurant in Waxahachie, Texas, a place advertised as haunted. The event was organized in conjunction with The Dallas Morning News and its feature writer Michael Precker. The skeptics experienced various alleged paranormal phenomena, such as glasses dancing, lights flickering, and a cup of tea appearing to levitate. Mr. Precker, a reporter, was busy taking notes, while the skeptics, including Mike Martin and Ginny, demonstrated tricks that mimicked supernatural events. The restaurant owners, Mr. and Mrs. Baker, shared stories of hauntings, including an inexplicable leaky pipe and a guest's claim of a driver's license reappearing. The article notes that Mr. Precker was surprised by the skeptics' thoroughness in verifying claims. Sullivan emphasizes that critical thinking involves not believing without good cause and investigating unusual claims. Vaughn describes the Halloween-themed atmosphere and the various "spooky consumables" and ghost anecdotes available. She notes that the owners hired ghost hunters to investigate the hauntings. The article suggests that the Bakers' claims are a "gimmick" for publicity and that the evidence presented is weak. Both authors stress the importance of critical thinking when evaluating such claims. Vaughn recommends installing a security camera as a more practical approach to investigating disturbances.

Healthy skepticism

Tim Gorski, M.D., addresses weight loss quackery, specifically a product called V-Cal. He begins by explaining the basic science of weight loss: BODYFAT equals CALORIES IN minus CALORIES OUT. He details the caloric content of various foods and the approximate calories burned through different activities. Gorski then presents promotional material for V-Cal, which guarantees a 70-pound weight loss in 40 days without lifestyle changes, allowing unlimited consumption of high-calorie foods. He dismisses the claims as a "BIG LIE," noting that the product is sold via a P.O. Box and lacks ingredient information. Gorski calculates that losing 70 pounds of fat in 40 days would require an extreme daily caloric deficit, far beyond what the V-Cal claims suggest is possible without drastic lifestyle changes.

Letters to the editor

John Towes of Manitoba Skeptics writes to Dr. Gorski, expressing concern about his "dogma of progress" and his stance on genetically engineered food. Towes argues that consumers have a right to know if food is genetically engineered and that technological applications like genetically altered tomatoes and hormone-injected cows are driven by profit rather than pure science. He suggests "genetic tinkering" as a more appropriate term than "genetic engineering" due to the complexity and potential ramifications. Dr. Gorski replies, defending modern medical science as progress over earlier practices. He dismisses the Luddite arguments and argues that while government subsidies might affect dairy supply, it's irrelevant to the economic reality of getting more for less. He states that accommodating emotional preferences by demanding "genetically engineered" labeling is irrational, comparing it to demanding detailed pedigrees of all food components. He concludes that these innovations do not bestow any "special nature" on the food.

The third eye

Pat Reeder reviews media presentations of supernatural topics, criticizing the proliferation of "credulous pseudo-documentary/feature stories." He praises an "Ancient Mysteries" episode on vampires for rationally explaining the myth through historical context, such as TB symptoms and misunderstandings of decomposition and rigor mortis. Reeder also discusses a "60 Minutes" report on the Stealth Bomber, noting that the visual evidence of its night flights, with three rotating lights, could be misinterpreted by UFO enthusiasts as a flying saucer. He contrasts this with the show "Encounters," which he finds less credible. Reeder also mentions a Larry King interview with an alleged alien and a segment on Jabba the Hutt (mistakenly identified as Marlon Brando). He concludes by noting that the Pentagon has studied a crashed flying saucer for decades but developed a conventional airplane.

Other items

The issue also includes a brief mention of Terry Jones' book "Lady Cottingly's Book of Pressed Fairies," a parody of fairy photos. There's a note about Rush Limbaugh's alleged quoting of Lyndon LaRouche literature, with a clarification from Robert M. Craig. The "wrap-up of religious fanaticism" section covers a Virgin Mary appearance in Conyers, Georgia, a Hindu firewalk ceremony in Singapore, and a court ruling in Denver regarding a prisoner's right to practice Satanic rituals. The issue concludes with a skeptical cartoon titled "Up a tree" by Laura Ainsworth, which humorously interprets alleged supernatural events at the Catfish Plantation.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are skepticism towards paranormal claims, the importance of scientific reasoning and statistical analysis, and the debunking of pseudoscience and scams. The editorial stance is clearly in favor of critical thinking, evidence-based conclusions, and the application of scientific principles to understand phenomena, whether they be coincidences, creationist arguments, alleged hauntings, or health-related claims. The publication actively promotes a rationalist viewpoint, challenging unsubstantiated beliefs and media sensationalism.