Magonia Supplement - No 57 - 2005 07 05

Magazine Overview

This issue of MAGONIA Supplement, No. 57, dated July 5, 2005, is titled 'DO UFO FILMS STIMULATE UFO FLAPS?' and features an article by Martin S. Kottmeyer. The supplement focuses on the relationship between the release of films depicting UFOs and alien invasions and the subsequent occurrence of UFO 'flaps' or surges in reported sightings.

Article: DO UFO FILMS STIMULATE UFO FLAPS? by Martin S. Kottmeyer

Kottmeyer begins by questioning the intuitive assumption that films about aliens would naturally lead to more UFO reports. He notes that sceptics have occasionally asserted this, citing a 1996 NOVA documentary that implied 'Close Encounters of the Third Kind' caused a surge in UFO reports. However, Budd Hopkins disputed this, and Philip Klass offered statistics from the Hynek Center for UFO Studies (CUFOS) showing an 85% increase in reports in 1978 compared to 1977, the year 'Close Encounters' was released.

Newsweek highlighted this sceptic argument when 'Independence Day' was released, posing whether such films were harmless or pernicious. Kottmeyer points out that sceptics like Randi, Nickell, and Hyman were featured in such articles, suggesting a general direction of argument.

Donald Menzel is cited as asserting that the 1952 Washington Nationals Flap was partly nurtured by the film 'The Day the Earth Stood Still,' due to its depiction of a saucer landing in Washington D.C.

An unnamed European ufologist blamed France's Great Martian Panic of 1954 on the release of George Pal's 'War of the Worlds,' alongside the publication of several UFO-related books in France. Kottmeyer questions this, noting that the film's ads included the question, 'Do the flying saucers really exist?'

Kottmeyer conducted a review of theories about UFO flaps, comparing the release dates of 20 major alien invasion films from the 1950s with Project Blue Book UFO report numbers. His initial impression was that there was no obvious causal relationship. He found that major flaps in 1952 and 1957 had no clear connection to film releases, and some important films had no effect at all.

He then created a chart comparing UFO reports in the month before and the month after film releases, ignoring the release month itself to account for distribution variations. The results were largely disappointing. For instance, 'The Thing' was associated with the admonition 'Watch the Skies,' but UFO reports actually decreased the following month. 'The Blob' also saw a drop in reports after its release, despite extensive publicity. Even the release of 'I Married a Monster from Outer Space' concurrently did not boost reports. 'Invasion of the Body Snatchers,' despite being a scary film, had no effect on stimulating reports.

'The Day the Earth Stood Still' had a modest effect, with only 6 more reports nationwide in the month after its release. Kottmeyer notes that critics and buffs agree this is the most important saucer film of the decade.

He further analyzes 'War of the Worlds,' which in the US was associated with a modest increase of 13 reports. He questions the claim that it was responsible for France's Great Martian Panic, especially given the modest US increase.

Regarding the impact of books in France, Donald Keyhoe's 'Flying Saucers from Outer Space' was popular, but its effect on UFO numbers is not apparent. Adamski/Leslie's book appeared during a period of low US numbers. Aimé Michel's books and Jimmy Guieu's work were less known in the US and did not correlate with flaps. The Belgian ufologist's argument for media effects in France but not the US becomes unconvincing when tested in the American domain.

Kottmeyer expresses surprise that 'Invasion of the Saucermen,' a trivial film, showed the second largest increase in reports, similar to 'The Crawling Eye,' which also lacked significant UFO content. He notes that there is no clear ordering principle based on importance, malevolence, seriousness, or popularity among the films that showed increased reports. While 14 films showed increases against 6 showing decreases, he suspects other factors swamp any straightforward causal force.

He reiterates that using the actual month of release instead of the month after yields worse results, with only 10 films aligning with increased UFO numbers and 8 with decreases. This suggests randomness.

Rick Marin's expectation that 'Independence Day' would lead to a significant increase in sightings was not supported by NUFORC data; reports dropped in July 1996, and the entire summer saw relatively light activity compared to other years.

Klass's claim about 'Close Encounters of the Third Kind' is challenged by Allan Hendry's data. The film was released in November 1977, but December 1977 saw a drop in reports, with numbers remaining depressed for months. They only increased after the film left the theatres. Hendry remarked that when CUFOS expected a flap, it was assumed the initial months of release would show the greatest stimulation, but this period proved null. Klass's excuse that people are less inclined to gaze at the sky in winter is dismissed by Kottmeyer, who points to high numbers in winter months in other years.

Kottmeyer's own hypothesis is that UFO flaps are psychologically induced by widespread public attention, often driven by news media coverage. He predicted a major UFO flap in early 1978, coinciding with Steven Spielberg's new thriller on UFOs, which turned out to be 'Close Encounters of the Third Kind.' He predicted numerous reports of encounters and UFOs following the movie's release.

Martin Gardner and others also speculated about a 1978 UFO flap linked to 'Close Encounters.' However, Rensberger of The New York Times reported an increase soon after the movie, but Jerry Clark found UFO researchers reporting a low ebb. Clark later admitted error regarding a remark by J. Allen Hynek. Joe Nickell, however, still believed reports jumped dramatically after the film.

A British reporter, Lansdale, also stated the film stimulated UFO reports. However, data from UFOCAT for Great Britain showed only 7 cases in March and 9 in April 1978, following the March 13th premiere, which hardly constituted a flap, especially compared to the Dyfed flap of early 1977. The summer of 1978 and subsequent years saw a lull.

In France, where 'Close Encounters' was released on February 24, 1978, there were 12 reports in February and 12 in March, showing no change. The closest to flaps in France occurred in February-March 1974 and December 1979. Kottmeyer notes that the late 1978 American increase was not echoed in Britain.

Kottmeyer concludes that the hypothesis that flaps are created by film media is unconvincing. Any effect is minor, not a major flap, and not consistent enough for predictions. He suggests that the slight results can be dismissed as illusory products of fluctuations or other variables.

Article: THE NOT SO 'NEW' ALIEN INVADERS by Nigel Watson

This section discusses the contemporary interpretation of 'alien invaders' in the post-9/11 climate, where they are often equated with illegal immigrants or terrorists. Lord Carlile's report on the Terrorism Act 2000 highlighted the vulnerability of unlicensed airports to exploitation. The article mentions a report from Offshore Alert about a local airfield potentially being used by 'mystery aviators.'

Matrix Investigations looked into RAF Binbrook airfield, finding it unlikely to be used for illegal landings due to its condition and monitoring by nearby RAF bases and Humberside International Airport. Simon Cross suggests that any aircraft seen might have been model aircraft from the Binbrook Sharks club.

The article notes that no witnesses were named in the reports concerning illegal aircraft at Binbrook, and the 'local source' was linked to Imperial Consolidated, a company whose PR interests were represented by Offshore Alert. This suggests the rumors might be part of a campaign.

It is mentioned that the area around RAF Kelstern has ghost stories, including one about a mysterious blue light seen by a motorist in 1990. The article questions whether this was an illegal aircraft or a misidentified light, or if it was related to Imperial Consolidated's activities.

Simon Cross's assertion that illegal aircraft activity would be reported to the police is supported by an incident in 1972 where RAF Waddington's radar detected an unidentified light aircraft. Police searches found nothing.

The article also references Peter Rogerson's work, which dismissed the idea that radar blips indicated illegal immigrants, suggesting they were anomalous.

More recently, the Financial Times reported 'ghost aircraft' detected in the North Sea by NATS, attributed to SSR issues. The Civil Aviation Authority assures that safety is not affected.

David Stuart believes airfields are adequately covered by radar, but the interpretation of data and political context can lead to reports of UFOs transporting aliens or terrorists.

Literary Criticism: Review by Martin S. Kottmeyer

Kottmeyer reviews Bill Schelly's book, 'Words of Wonder: The Life and Times of Otto Binder.' He was initially curious about Binder's UFO writings and their significance. He notes that Binder was a prolific writer, particularly for comic books like Captain Marvel. Binder's life had significant personal tragedies, including the death of his daughter and ongoing financial and familial difficulties, which Kottmeyer suggests might have influenced his later UFO books.

Kottmeyer finds Schelly's biography to be well-rounded, detailing Binder's struggles, achievements, and a significant personal tragedy. He rates the book as excellent and reader-friendly.

Review of Magonia Supplement No. 52

This section reviews Magonia Supplement No. 52, which features an article by Martin Kottmeyer on the film 'The Day the Earth Stood Still' and its comparisons to UFO cases. It also mentions a translation of an article about ufologists and a controversy regarding an article written in Spanish.

Editorial

The editorial criticizes the common sceptic mistake of offering an obvious explanation for a report that is later proven wrong, citing the Mantell case as an example. It highlights Kottmeyer's article, stating that the theory of UFO flaps being generated by films is not supported by statistics. The editorial emphasizes that the obvious explanation is not always correct and that the generation of UFO flaps is not a simple process.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme is the critical examination of common explanations for UFO phenomena, particularly the idea that media, specifically films, directly cause UFO flaps. The editorial stance is one of cautious skepticism towards simplistic explanations, advocating for a deeper, evidence-based analysis of UFO reports and the factors influencing them. The magazine appears to favor rigorous investigation and challenges widely held assumptions within both ufology and its skeptical counter-arguments.