Deguforum - Issue 83 - 2014

Magazine Overview

This issue of DEGUFORUM, the 83rd edition and part of the 21st year, is the Winter 2014 publication from the DEGUFO e.V. (German-speaking Society for UFO Research). It features a cover story titled "Das Gesetz der Zeiten" (The Law of Times) by Julio Plaza del Olmo, translated by Roland M. Horn, and includes an interview with Hans-Werner Peiniger, the 1st Chairman of GEP e.V.

Editorial and Publisher Information

The editorial section, penned by Marius Kettmann, reflects on the past year (2014) marked by global anxieties and the passing of notable figures. It highlights upcoming initiatives for DEGUFO, including a new UFO database in collaboration with GEP and MUFON-CES, and efforts to optimize the DEGUFO archive. The issue promises the first part of a four-part series on the "Law of Times," an interview with Hans-Werner Peiniger, and reports on UFO sightings from the third quarter of 2014. It also features articles on UFOs, infrared light, and the human eye by Roland M. Horn, and the tenth part of Jens Waldeck's series on abduction research.

The publication details list DEGUFO e.V. as the publisher, with Marius Kettmann as editor-in-chief. The editorial deadline is noted as the 15th of February, May, August, and November, with the magazine published quarterly. Subscription prices are listed for domestic and international readers.

UFO Sightings Reports (Q3 2014)

This section, compiled by Christian Czech, details numerous UFO sightings reported in the third quarter of 2014. Many cases are marked with "insufficient data" due to the lack of witness response to follow-up questionnaires. Notable reports include:

• July 2, 2014: A witness in Schlüchtern reported a pulsating, rectangular light spot moving erratically.
• July 2, 2014: In Kressbronn am Bodensee, a witness observed two bright lights, one moving like an airplane, the other hovering and flickering.
• July 3, 2014: In Bonn, witnesses saw 5-7 bright points of light moving very fast and silently.
• July 4, 2014: In Bendorf, a witness reported a blinding white object appearing from a rain cloud.
• July 4, 2014: In Vach, witnesses saw a triangular object with lights, flying low and silently, following their car.
• July 4, 2014: In Leingarten, a fast-moving object stopped suddenly, displayed blinking lights, and reappeared.
• July 14, 2014: In Sindelfingen, three UFOs were reported, one described as cigar-shaped.
• July 15, 2014: In Weinheim, an object in the shape of a roller was sighted.
• July 16, 2014: In Sindelfingen, a large object with pulsing white light was observed.
• July 19, 2014: In Wiesau, a bright, shimmering point moved, grew larger, and hovered.
• July 20, 2014: In Hopsten, a formation of three cross-like orange lights was seen.
• July 24, 2014: In Sindelfingen, a witness reported seeing the ISS followed by a UFO, and later a "triangular UFO" accompanied them home.
• July 30, 2014: In Wiesbaden, a witness described a large, bowl-shaped light phenomenon that illuminated the sky.
• July 31, 2014: In Münster, a third-party witness reported an orange-red object moving quickly and silently, which then appeared to 'explode' into a black spot.
• August 1, 2014: In Hannover, a witness and friend saw a star-like object that flashed brightly and then moved erratically.
• August 7, 2014: In an unspecified location, two or more lights were seen in a triangular formation, moving silently.
• August 8, 2014: In Trier-Feyen, two lights were observed moving in formation.
• August 8, 2014: In an unspecified location, silent, airplane-like lights were seen.
• August 8, 2014: In an unspecified location, a bright blue-white object appeared, ascended rapidly, and then vanished.
• August 9, 2014: In Bochum, a witness reported four large, bright lights moving erratically and illuminating the clouds.
• August 9, 2014: In Norderstedt, two fast-flying, silent objects were observed.
• August 9, 2014: In Berlin-Bohnsdorf, a red point was observed moving slowly and purposefully, followed by another.
• September 3, 2014: In Würzburg, white oval lights were seen gliding in arcs and forming groups.
• September 6, 2014: In Sindelfingen, an object resembling a drone or a thin airplane was seen flying low.
• September 6, 2014: In Niedervellmar, a very bright star-like object was observed.
• September 7, 2014: In Markgröningen, two blue triangles were seen hovering over a car.
• September 9, 2014: A witness described a deep black triangular object with positional lights and spotlights.
• September 16, 2014: In Königsbrunn, multiple objects were observed at high altitude performing complex maneuvers.
• September 16, 2014: In Karlsruhe, a witness reported a smaller, weaker light following a helicopter-like object.
• September 17, 2014: In Alt-Hürth, a neighbor reported seeing a triangular object with multi-colored lights.
• September 18, 2014: A witness reported seeing a large, triangular object with blinking lights and no sound.
• September 19, 2014: In Gersthofen, a reddish light spot was observed that ascended rapidly and disappeared.
• September 25, 2014: In Stahlgrubing, four matte, wide lights flew erratically and then accelerated away.
• September 27, 2014: In Arnsberg, two blinking lights circled each other before flying off in different directions.
• September 27, 2014: In Karlsruhe, a bright blue-white point hovered and then ascended rapidly.

Article: "Das Gesetz der Zeiten" - Teil 1

This article by Julio Plaza del Olmo, translated by Roland M. Horn, introduces a model to understand UFO sightings based on a geographical-astronomical factor and social habits. It analyzes three catalogs (FOTOCAT, ALLCAT, VALLEE, HATCH, CUCO) and discusses how factors like daylight saving time and time zones affect data. The "Law of Times" is presented not as an inherent property of UFOs, but as a consequence of sighting conditions and social behavior.

Article: The Human Eye, Infrared Light, and UFOs

Roland M. Horn discusses the spectrum in which UFO phenomena occur, referencing John A. Keel's work and the human eye's perception of infrared light.

Article: Abduction Research - Part 10

Jens Waldeck's tenth part of his series focuses on the research practices and scientific worldviews surrounding abduction phenomena.

Interview: Hans-Werner Peiniger

In an extensive interview with Marius Kettmann, Hans-Werner Peiniger, founder and chairman of GEP, shares his 40+ years of experience in UFO research. He discusses his early interest, the founding of GEP, and the evolution of UFO research in Germany. Peiniger emphasizes the importance of a scientific approach, inter-organizational cooperation (despite past difficulties with groups like CENAP), and the challenges of handling the increasing volume of reports in the internet age. He expresses a desire for a more professional and collaborative UFO research community in Germany and reflects on the nature of UFO phenomena, leaning towards terrestrial explanations but remaining open to exotic possibilities.

Article: Strange Movements of a "Cloud"

Roland M. Horn investigates a sighting from 2004 or 2005 in Wallerfangen, Germany, where a witness reported a cloud-like object exhibiting unusual pulsating movements against the wind. The case remains classified as "insufficient data" due to the witness not returning a questionnaire.

Article: A "Good-UFO" - A UFO over Bremen in 1987

Peter Hattwig recounts a case from 1987 where a witness observed a silent, hovering object over Bremen that emitted a light beam onto the autobahn. The object's behavior and silence, despite its proximity, led Hattwig to classify it as a "Good UFO."

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The magazine consistently emphasizes a scientific and investigative approach to UFO phenomena. There's a clear distinction made between sensationalist claims and rigorous research. The recurring theme of "insufficient data" highlights the challenges faced by researchers due to uncooperative witnesses or the ease of fabricating evidence in the digital age. The editorial stance advocates for collaboration among research groups, standardization of methodologies, and a critical evaluation of evidence. The "Law of Times" article suggests that many UFO sightings might be explained by predictable patterns related to human behavior and observation conditions rather than solely by the nature of the objects themselves. The interview with Hans-Werner Peiniger underscores the importance of professionalism, objectivity, and inter-organizational cooperation in advancing the field of UFO research.

This issue of DEGUFORUM, titled "Gesetz der Zeiten - Teil 1" (Law of Times - Part 1), published as Nr. 83 and dated March/April 2015, delves into the scientific and statistical analysis of UFO phenomena. The magazine explores the temporal patterns of sightings, the factors influencing their visibility and reporting, and the methodologies for researching such events.

Mathematical Derivations of the Law of Times

The core of the issue is a detailed mathematical exploration of the 'Law of Times' (GdZ). The article begins by acknowledging various existing catalogs of UFO sightings and their temporal distributions, noting similarities such as a peak around 9-10 PM. It proposes a model to define the 'Law of Times' based on the assumption of a constant number of luminous events occurring daily, with visibility (Pv) and the probability of being witnessed (Pw) being key factors. The derivation involves defining visibility based on the visual limiting magnitude (VLM) of the human eye, which changes with the time of day and is influenced by factors like sunrise and sunset. The article details how VLM varies and how this translates into a probability of an event being visible. It then moves to the probability of an event being witnessed, which is linked to the proportion of the population that is awake at any given time. Mathematical functions are presented to model these probabilities, culminating in an equation (Equation 5) that represents the 'Law of Times'.

Visibility (Pv)

The article explains that visibility is determined by the brightness of an event and the atmospheric conditions. The visual limiting magnitude (VLM) is defined as the faintest magnitude visible to the naked eye, approximately 5.5 at night and -4 during the day. The transition between day and night, including twilight, is modeled by considering the sun's altitude. The article also notes that VLM depends on geographical location and the time of year. Assigning a probability for visibility involves considering the event's magnitude relative to the VLM at that specific time and location, using cumulative probability functions.

Witnessing Probability (Pw)

Witnessing probability is presented as a more complex factor, representing a social habit. It is linked to the proportion of the population that is awake. The article suggests that while daily sleeping habits might be similar, seasonal variations (e.g., longer summer nights) can influence when people go to bed and wake up. Mathematical models are proposed using normal distributions for waking and sleeping times, with parameters for main wake-up time, standard deviation of wakefulness, main bedtime, and the minimum percentage of the population awake at night. The probability of being awake at a given time (Pw) is calculated based on these distributions.

Qualitative Analysis

The article discusses the combined effect of visibility and witnessing probability, noting that the product of these two functions (GdZ) shows a peak after sunset. During daylight, visibility is low for faint events, while at night, visibility is high, but fewer people are awake. The combined effect leads to a peak in reported sightings. The analysis also highlights the correlation between the peak sighting time and sunset, suggesting a link between UFO sightings and the sun's relative height.

Analysis of UFO Catalogs

Data from UFO catalogs, such as FOTOCAT and CUCO, are analyzed to compare different 'Laws of Times'. The article also references a study of over 4000 cases from Gregor and Tickx, which found a correlation between the peak sighting time and sunset. Analysis of a large dataset from NUFORC (9225 cases in California) is presented, showing monthly histograms of sightings. The study indicates that the peak sighting time correlates with sunset, and the percentage of cases reporting a peak is higher in summer months, possibly due to shorter nights concentrating sightings into a smaller time window.

Secondary Peaks and Model Refinements

The article discusses the possibility of a secondary peak in sightings around 2-3 AM, which is not fully explained by the primary model. It also explores how to incorporate multiple catalogs into a single model by using weighted additions of individual time distributions. The concept of adding a secondary peak as a Gaussian function is introduced to account for this phenomenon.

Related Articles and Themes

The Human Eye, Infrared Light, and UFOs

This section features an article by Roland M. Horn discussing recent findings that suggest humans can, under certain conditions, perceive infrared light. This is linked to John A. Keel's theories about 'ultraterrestrials' and their potential connection to the infrared spectrum. The article posits that if UFOs operate in the infrared range, it could explain why some witnesses see spectacular events while others nearby do not.

Model-Dependent Realism and Research Methodology

Several articles explore philosophical and methodological aspects of research, particularly in the context of UFOs and abduction phenomena. The concept of 'model-dependent realism' is discussed, emphasizing how our perception of reality is shaped by our mental models. The importance of openness, objectivity, and qualitative research methods in studying subjective experiences like abductions is highlighted. The articles also touch upon the idea of 'multiple realities' and the challenges of integrating different worldviews.

Abduction Research

Articles on abduction research discuss the difficulties in establishing rigorous scientific methods for studying these experiences. They emphasize the need for researchers to be open-minded, to document subjective experiences accurately, and to consider the role of the observer in the research process. The concept of 'model-dependent realism' is applied to abduction research, suggesting that understanding the abductee's subjective reality is crucial.

Creativity and Openness in Research

The importance of creativity and openness in scientific inquiry is stressed, particularly in fields like UFO research where conventional methods may be insufficient. The articles suggest that creativity often arises when existing paradigms are challenged and new possibilities are explored. The concept of 'model-dependent realism' is presented as a framework for understanding and approaching unconventional phenomena.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The DEGUFORUM consistently adopts a scientific and analytical approach to UFO phenomena. The magazine emphasizes the importance of rigorous research, statistical analysis, and mathematical modeling. It encourages an open-minded yet critical perspective, exploring both conventional and unconventional theories. The recurring themes include the temporal and spatial distribution of UFO sightings, the psychological and perceptual factors involved, and the philosophical implications of studying anomalous phenomena. The editorial stance favors a methodical investigation, seeking to understand the underlying principles and potential explanations for UFO events, while acknowledging the limitations of current knowledge and the need for interdisciplinary approaches.