Computer UFO Newsletter - Vol 2 no 1 - 1987 11

Magazine Overview

Title: THE COMPUTER UFO NEWSLETTER
Volume: 2
Issue: Number 1
Date: November 1987

This issue of "The Computer UFO Newsletter" is an aperiodical journal published irregularly, entirely devoted to the presentation of works and discussions about the use and applications of computers in ufology. It serves as a guide for researchers using personal computers in their UFO investigations.

Editorial

The editorial discusses the growth of the "The Computer UFO Newsletter" and the increasing readership. It highlights two primary reasons for the endemic anarchy in computer applications within ufology: the vast number of PCs with differing capabilities and lack of compatibility, leading ufologists to create customized databases, and the isolated, hobbyist nature of ufologists, which prevents the establishment of standards. The editor suggests that adopting a common standard like PC-IBM compatible machines and common database/record formats could improve the situation, though full integration is unlikely. The editorial also notes the limitations of eight-bit computers for serious processing and the advantages of 16-bit and 32-bit machines for handling large files. It acknowledges that this issue is late due to the time required for preparation.

Contributions and Contact Information

Contributions are welcomed from researchers with personal experience, submitted in the form of word processor files generated by MS-DOS software (Wordstar and Word 3.0 are specifically mentioned). Correspondence should be sent to:

COMPUTER UFO NEWSLETTER
Maurizio Verga, Editor
via Matteotti 85
22072 Cermenate (Como)
ITALY

For international correspondence, only International Postal Money Orders payable to "Maurizio Verga" are accepted; checks will be refused due to exchange charges.

The newsletter can be received by exchange with other UFO magazines or by paying a fee of 18,000 Italian lire for a complete volume, with an additional 4,000 lire for air mail delivery. The publication is entirely composed using an Amstrad PC 1512 and Amstrad DMF 3000 printers.

This issue features contributions from Steuart Campbell, Willy Smith, Victor Lourenco, Ronny Blomme, Denys Breysse, Xavier Burot, and Giuseppe Verdi.

Special Publication: Centro Italiano Studi Ufologici (C.I.S.U.)

"The Computer UFO Newsletter" is a special publication of the Centro Italiano Studi Ufologici (C.I.S.U.), the largest Italian UFO organization. The Foreign Liasion Office of C.I.S.U. can be contacted at:

C.I.S.U.
C.SO VITTORIO EMANUELE 108
10121 TORINO
ITALY

Computerization of UFO Research

The editorial further elaborates on the progress of computerization in ufology. It mentions that all papers published in the newsletter are available on a new "UFO B.B.S." (Bulletin Board System) as text files, free of charge. This issue is the first to be entirely composed using an AMSTRAD PC1512 and Wordstar, with plans to use more sophisticated software for a professional look.

Readers are encouraged to send comments, opinions, and original articles about their computer-based UFO research. The newsletter also seeks information on any articles about computer uses in UFO research found in other magazines.

Rete Ufologica Computerizzata (R.U.C.)

A significant section is dedicated to the "Rete Ufologica Computerizzata" (Computer UFO Network), an initiative that has completed the first step in storing Italian UFO sightings. Over 4,500 entries covering 92 Italian provinces are available in Commodore and PC IBM formats (dBase III files). Preliminary statistical analyses have begun. The article suggests that similar informal organizations should be founded in other countries, requiring only a coordinator and some time and will. Key aims for such a group include publishing a small bulletin to maintain contact and storing national casuistry using a common database.

A Selection of Available UFO Software

The majority of the issue is dedicated to an extensive catalog of UFO software and related print-outs available through the newsletter's service. The software is categorized by computer platform:

• Commodore 64:
• COMPITACAT package: Three series of programs for presentation and cataloguing Italian close encounters, trace cases, and explained CE. Includes graphics and English instructions. Price: 18,000.
• ITACAT manuscript: Six disk sides of "Easy Script" files covering the entire 500-page opera, including introduction, abstracts, and comments. In Italian. Price: 15,000.
• UFO DATABASE: A powerful database for storing cases and sources, used by C.I.S.U. for Italian casuistry. In English. Release 3.3. Price: 10,000 (Disk), 8,000 (Tape).
• UFO DATABASE ITALIAN FILES: About 90 preliminary provincial files related to over 4,500 sightings, used with UFO DATABASE. Two full disk sides. Price: 20,000.
• S.D.P. Sighting Data Processing: Program for calculating various parameters of UFO sightings, including strangeness/credibility degree. Price: 10,000 (Disk), 8,000 (Tape).
• UFO SUPERBASE 64: Enlarged version of the UFO Database Italian Files, with more sources. Two full disk sides. Price: 20,000.
• ITACAT DEMO: Demo version of the database, with related file. Price: 10,000.
• ITACAT STATISTIC GRAPHS DEMO: Program for statistical analyses of temporal and geographic parameters of the ITACAT sample. In English. Price: 10,000.
• C.I.S.U. GRAPHIC DEMOS: Two demo programs explaining UFOs, Ufology, and C.I.S.U. news. In Italian. Price: 10,000.
• TASCAT: Tasmanian Catalogue of over 200 UFO events. Includes instructions and analyses. Written by Paul Jackson. Price: 10,000.
• UFODOC: Dutch/Belgian database of unusual aerial phenomena. Preliminary file with about 200 events. Written by Henry Kampherbeek. Price: 10,000.

• Commodore 128:
• ITACAT 128: Complete SUPERBASE 128 file of all Italian close encounters (480 events) with data and sources. Price: 15,000.
• TRACAT 128 & ITACAT N 128: Complete SUPERBASE files of Italian trace cases (180 events) and explained landings (100 cases). Price: 15,000.

• Spectrum 48 K:
• S.D.P. - Sightings Data Processing: Version of the Commodore 64 original program. Price: 10,000 (Program), 7,000 (Tape).

• Apple IIe:
• UFOBANK: Database program for national casuistry on provincial/county base, with statistics and graphs. Includes Italian files (over 1300 cases). In English. Price: 20,000.
• ITACAT: Version of the original C-64 software, with database and related file. Price: 10,000.
• ITACAT N: Version of the original C-64 software, with database and related file. Price: 10,000.
• TRACAT: Version of the original C-64 software, with database and related file. Price: 10,000.
• U.A.O.: Portuguese catalogue of UFO sightings, with data from 1917 to today. Price: 8,000.
• CATHUM: Whole Iberian entity cases catalogue, translated and on computer. Price: 8,000.
• OVNIQUE: UFO sightings in Quebec, Canada. Price: 8,000.
• HUMCAT: Entity cases from the Iberian Peninsula. Price: 7,000.
• TASCAT: Tasmanian UFO sightings with coded information, codebook, and statistics. Price: 2,500.

• PC IBM:
• SWECAT: Computerized catalogue of Swedish sightings, particularly of 1946 "ghost rockets". Preliminary version with 1,692 records. Available as dB III file. Price: 10,000.
• PORTUCAT: Wordstar file describing Portuguese UFO sightings, including the Fatima incident. Price: 10,000.
• PC-UFOBANK: IBM version of the original Apple program for storing Italian UFO casuistry. Price: 10,000.
• ITACAT, ITACAT N and TRACAT: Versions for PC-IBM being prepared in dBase III applications. Price: 15,000 each.
• ITACAT MANUSCRIPT: IBM version of the original Commodore software, with Wordstar files about Verga's 500-page opera. In Italian. Price: Not specified.
• PC-UFO DATABASE: IBM version of the original Commodore software for storing and processing Italian provinces casuistry. Available data about 90 provinces in dBase III applications. Price: 20,000.

• IBM 34/36:
• ARGENCAT: Detailed catalogue of Argentinian landing cases, with codebook, statistical routines, and mail list of South American UFO groups. In Spanish. Price: 20,000.
• ARGENCAT Vers. 1981: Same as above, with statistics but without graphs. Price: 16,000.
• A.F.U. WORKS: Files from Swedish group AFU, including a preliminary catalogue of 1946 "ghost rockets", mail list, and codebook of UFO phenomena peculiarities. Price: 18,000.

Print-Outs

Print-outs are available for some items, including the UFO DATABASE (list of Italian sightings per province). Prices are available upon request.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme is the integration of computer technology into UFO research, emphasizing data management, cataloguing, and analysis. The newsletter advocates for standardization and the use of personal computers to enhance the scientific rigor of ufology. The editorial stance is one of promoting accessible and practical computer tools for UFO investigators, fostering collaboration, and sharing resources internationally.

Title: THE ASTRO-METEOROLOGICAL HYPOTHESIS FOR UFO REPORTS

Issue: 2, 1

Volume: 2

Date: February 1987

Publisher: COMPUTER UFO NEWSLETTER

This issue of the Computer UFO Newsletter delves into the 'Astro-Meteorological Hypothesis' for UFO reports, proposing that many sightings are misinterpretations of celestial bodies and atmospheric phenomena. It also critically examines several UFO databases and their methodologies.

The Astro-Meteorological Hypothesis for UFO Reports by Steuart Campbell

Campbell argues that Occam's Razor suggests examining known luminous objects in the sky as potential explanations for UFO reports. He highlights that many people fail to recognize bright planets like Venus, and often do not understand the difference between stars and planets or their true distances. When astronomical bodies are near the horizon, they can appear closer and larger, especially the Moon due to the 'size constancy' illusion, where the brain enlarges distant objects perceived as being part of the landscape.

A second phenomenon discussed is 'autokinesis', where a stationary bright light in darkness appears to wander erratically. This is thought to be caused by conflicting messages from eye muscles to the brain. Low altitude stars and planets can also appear to move due to changes in brightness ('gamma' movement) or 'induced' movement through clouds.

The Earth's atmosphere significantly distorts the image of astronomical bodies, particularly at low altitudes. This distortion includes scintillation (twinkling) and refraction. Refraction, the bending of light due to atmospheric density, causes stars to appear higher than their true position. Different frequencies of light are refracted differently, leading to spectral color displays, especially with low altitude stars, which can appear blue above red.

At night, myopia and astigmatism can cause stars and planets to appear with rays or beams. Abnormal refraction can create mirages, which are real images of distant objects distorted by temperature gradients, such as temperature inversions. These mirages can be enlarged, fragmented, and appear brighter, sometimes merging to form shapes resembling 'flying saucers'. Scintillation and magnification can make these mirages visible even in daylight.

Campbell notes that naked-eye planets (Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn) and the twenty brightest stars have all been implicated in UFO reports. Terrestrial objects like lights or snow-covered mountains can also be subjects of mirages. He references the 1947 Arnold report as an example caused by mirages of mountain peaks.

To determine if a report describes an astronomical body, Campbell outlines three essential parameters: date/time, location, and direction. He emphasizes the need for accurate UT (Universal Time) conversion, precise location (longitude and latitude), and consideration of altitude for sea level allowance. He suggests using astronomical programs on home computers, like SKYCALC, to check reports against known celestial object positions.

UFOCAT Post-Mortem: A Critique by Willy Smith

Smith critiques UFOCAT, a 'computerized catalog of UFO reports and related information', arguing it is fundamentally flawed as a tool for ufology. He points out that each entry is limited to 256 hexadecimal characters, with only about 200 available for raw data, making it difficult to use. The core design flaw, according to Smith, is its principle of reflecting the input of one witness from one source accurately, even if the data is known to be inaccurate. This makes UFOCAT a catalog of sources, not a database of genuine UFO cases.

Smith agrees with Hendry's criticisms that many crucial details like terrain, weather, shapes, motions, and witness credibility are not coded. A major issue is the inclusion of Air Force's Project Blue Book cases, which constitute 22% of UFOCAT entries but are 95% false alarms (IFOs), severely compromising the database's statistical value.

He further criticizes UFOCAT for its poor encoding, inappropriate source references, and multiple entries for single cases. The references are often coded and insufficient for locating original sources. The need to interpret printouts character-by-character makes it impractical for researchers, requiring mainframe computers and programmers to extract desired information, a resource not even Dr. Hynek could access.

Smith uses the Antonio Villas Boas abduction case as an example, noting that UFOCAT provides incomplete information on duration and omits crucial data like UFO type (strangeness index), failing to categorize abductions.

Despite these flaws, Smith notes that UFOCAT has been used by its creators for statistical conclusions. He references papers by D.R. Saunders and A. Hendry in this context.

News Section

This section covers several developments in UFO research and data management:

• Italian Electronic Mail Service: An experimental evaluation of an Italian electronic mail service (PEIS) is underway for UFO purposes. If successful, CISU plans to rent a mailbox for members to send and receive messages in real time.
• Macintosh Sketch Program: An Apple Macintosh computer was used to draw sketches from an Italian CE3 report, illustrating the use of computers in UFO investigations.
• Italian UFO Casuistry Database (Catalogo 5.0): A new version of a database storing Italian UFO cases has been released. 'Catalogo 5.0' runs on a Commodore 128, offers improved speed and functionality, and can handle regional files. An English version is available for a fee.
• Italian UFO Casuistry on PC: The entire Italian UFO casuistry, estimated at over 10,000 events, is being transferred to PC IBM compatible machines using dBase III, promising significant improvements and developments.

PORTUCAT by Victor Lourenco

Lourenco describes PORTUCAT, a catalog of UFO reports from Portugal based on observation of possible Unidentified Flying Objects. It runs on an IBM XT with database software, containing over 270 records. Each record includes a description of the case, headlines, date, type of object, witnesses, source of information, and other details. PORTUCAT aims to provide a verbal comment based on stored data rather than a 'judged' analysis or classification.

PORTUCAT facilitates tracking cases and patterns through graphs. It is noted that most cases are not deeply investigated, except those involving well-known investigators. Media-published cases are referred to as 'newsclipping'. The Fatima event is highlighted due to the investigation by J. Fernandes and F.D'Armada.

Lourenco mentions previous computerized versions, including U.A.O. on Apple II and specific catalogs like 'HUMANOID' and 'OVNIQUE'.

A sample record for the Fatima 1917 incident is provided, detailing weather conditions, events before and during the 'miracle', secondary effects, and witness demographics. It includes a description of the phenomenon as a bright silver disk spinning and shining, and a graph showing the number of 'Humanoids over the Iberian Peninsula' cases from 1972 to 1981.

References

The issue lists four references related to UFOCAT and UFO activity:

1. D.R. Saunders (1978) "The UFOCAT Code Book", CUFOS
2. A. Hendry (1979) "The UFO Handbook", Doubleday
3. D.R. Saunders (1971) "UFO activity in relation to time-of-the-week" FSR Vol. 17, n°1, 10
4. F. Merritt (1980) "UFOCAT and a friend with two new ideas", MUFON Proceedings, 31

To All Subscribers

An announcement regarding delays in the publication of "The Computer UFO Newsletter" is made, with Vol. 2 n° 2 expected to be released later than scheduled, possibly around March 1988. The newsletter may transition to an aperiodical publication format from Vol. 3 onwards, with subscriptions related to a given number of issues.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the scientific investigation of UFO phenomena, emphasizing the importance of accurate data collection and analysis. The editorial stance appears to be critical of poorly managed databases and unsubstantiated claims, advocating for a more rigorous and evidence-based approach to ufology. There is a clear focus on debunking or explaining UFO sightings through natural phenomena and critiquing the methodologies of UFO researchers and organizations.

This issue of the COMPUTER UFO NEWSLETTER, Volume 2, Issue 1, focuses on the application of computer technology and astronomical data analysis in UFO research. The cover features several graphs illustrating UFO case data, with a headline emphasizing the utility of computers in handling this information for researchers. The issue introduces a software program called SKY MAP and provides a detailed case study.

SKY MAP: Another software to identify astronomical IFOS

The second part of the newsletter introduces SKY MAP, a software program developed by Belgian researcher Ronny Blomme. The program is designed to assist UFO investigators in identifying astronomical phenomena that might be mistaken for UFOs. It aims to provide explanations for sightings by calculating the positions of celestial bodies.

Software Development and Availability

SKY MAP was developed for the Apple IIe computer with a Z-80 card and 64K of RAM, but it is adaptable to different hardware configurations. Ronny Blomme states that the program can be copied freely, provided the author's name and address are mentioned. For those without an Apple IIe system, he offers to produce processing and print-outs upon request, using a provided data form.

Program Functionality and Phenomena Identification

The primary task of SKY MAP is to help identify UFOs by checking for astronomical explanations. The program's value is highlighted, especially as it is produced by a ufologist for UFO research. The software can identify phenomena such as stars, planets, the moon, and the sun. The newsletter notes that a significant portion of reported UFOs turn out to have astronomical explanations, such as stars or planets.

SKY MAP Input and Output

Investigators can use SKY MAP by providing specific data, including location (longitude and latitude), date, and time (converted to Universal Time - UT). The program can calculate a sky map for a single instance or a series of up to 50 different maps. The output includes the visible hemisphere for the given parameters, with circles representing the horizon and lines indicating azimuth. Symbols are used to represent stars (varying in size based on magnitude), double stars (indicated by a cross), variable stars, planets, the moon, and the sun. Constellations are shown with lines connecting stars and their three-letter abbreviations. The program also generates a table of stars above or below the horizon, with user-definable height and magnitude limits. Data for the moon and sun are always included.

Phenomena Not Included

Phenomena not covered by the SKY MAP program include comets and meteors (which are not predictable), and halos. While halos are not directly analyzed, the program can assist in identifying the sun's position, which is relevant for analyzing shadows or reflections that might be misinterpreted.

Technical Details of SKY MAP

The SKY MAP program is divided into three parts: one for inputting coordinates, date, and time; a second for calculating height and azimuth for astronomical objects and writing them to a file; and a third for printing the results. The calculations are based on astronomical formulae, with inputs including stellar data from A. Becvar's "Atlas of the Heavens II Catalogue 1950.0" and options for atmospheric refraction. The program calculates geocentric latitude, apparent sidereal time, and corrects for factors like precession, nutation, aberration, and parallax. Orbital elements for planets are also calculated.

Case Study: The Betty and Barney Hill Incident

The newsletter presents the Betty and Barney Hill case as an example of how SKY MAP can be applied. The focus is on the initial phase where they observed a "strange star" near the moon on September 19, 1961. The analysis, using data converted to UT (20/9/1961 at 3:00 UT), shows Jupiter and Saturn near the moon. The "strange star" could be Jupiter, as suggested by R. Sheaffer. However, the analysis also considers the possibility that the "star" was Saturn obscured by clouds. The accuracy of Betty Hill's sketch is questioned, making a definitive astronomical explanation difficult and highlighting the challenge of deciding due to data limitations.

Interpretation of the Sky Map Output

The sky map itself displays the visible hemisphere, with the horizon represented by an outer circle. Additional circles indicate heights above the horizon, and straight lines represent azimuths. The compass points are shown, with a note that the east-west direction is reversed compared to terrestrial maps due to the need to hold the map overhead. The interpretation of symbols for stars, planets, and other celestial bodies is explained, along with how constellations are depicted. The scale of the map is noted as relatively small, meaning only a portion of the sky is visible at once.

Factors Affecting UFO Identification

The newsletter stresses the investigator's responsibility in collecting accurate data. Key factors for identifying astronomical explanations include:

1. Reliability of Basic Parameters: Accuracy of place, date, time, height, and azimuth is crucial. Visiting the observation site with the witness is recommended. Overestimation of height is common, and the direction of azimuth measurement needs to be noted.
2. Correctness of Witness Description: Investigators may need to account for factors like autokinesis, atmospheric distortion, or clouds that can alter the appearance or behavior of celestial objects, making them seem unusual.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme is the application of scientific tools and methods, specifically computer software and astronomical data, to the study of UFO phenomena. The editorial stance is one of critical investigation, aiming to find rational, often astronomical, explanations for sightings. The newsletter emphasizes the importance of accurate data collection and analysis, acknowledging the complexities and potential ambiguities in witness accounts. The publication promotes the idea that ufology can benefit from rigorous, data-driven approaches, similar to those used in other scientific fields.

This issue of the Computer UFO Newsletter, Volume 1, Number 2, dated 1985, delves into the technical aspects of ufology, focusing on computer applications, data management, and statistical analysis of UFO cases. It features contributions from various researchers and organizations, highlighting the growing integration of technology in UFO investigation.

Astronomical Calculations for UFO Investigations

The first section details a program for calculating the geocentric positions of the Moon and Sun. It outlines the steps involved, including converting coordinates, correcting for parallax, and accounting for atmospheric refraction. The program is designed to provide an accuracy of 0.1 in height and azimuth for the years 1700-2100 AD, with a note that time accuracy is crucial. Table 1 illustrates the required accuracy in time and latitude/longitude for achieving this precision. The program runs on an Apple II with specific configurations and takes approximately 40 minutes to calculate and print a map.

Copies of the Programme

Researchers interested in obtaining the binary code, the program itself, or a listing can contact Ronny Blomme at the provided address in Brussels, Belgium. The program is available on 5 1/2 inch diskettes, with options to send blank diskettes or pay via International Postal Money Order. The program is intended for ufological or astronomical purposes only and has specific distribution conditions.

News and Updates

This section reports on the transfer of the ITACAT manuscript, a 500-page Italian catalogue of UFO encounters, into MS-DOS format. It also mentions articles about the use of PCs in ufology published in Italian magazines, which have generated significant interest. The newsletter also addresses its own publication schedule, stating that times of publication are becoming "really unforseeable" but assures readers that the newsletter is still active and appreciates being kept on exchange mail lists.

CHEKPOINT FOUR ON BECASSINE

This extensive report by Denys Breysse details the progress of the Becassine project, a UFO database initiative. Over 250 French CE 3 & 4 cases have been coded, and a list of these events is available. The project is also coding US cases, noting that while the sample size is large, the quantity of information per case can be scarce. Willy Smith's UNICAT project for establishing a UFO data-bank is mentioned, with its own database storing "solid" cases and MAYBECAT storing cases lacking data. Becassine currently stores about 1,500 events. A key aspect of the Becassine project is the development of an index for the quantity and quality of information for each case, crucial for statistical studies. The report also discusses processing software, including routines for factorial analysis, and preliminary statistical results from French cases. New contacts have been established with researchers in the USA, Italy, and Switzerland to build a comprehensive database. Researchers are invited to contribute information on explained or unexplained CE III cases.

How Can You Help Becassine?

Contributors can help by sending information about explained or unexplained CE III cases, including copies of articles, investigation reports, specific remarks, and listings of experiences or catalogues.

How Becassine Can Help You?

Becassine can provide listings of CE III experiences, a coding booklet, copies of disks, information on specific experiences, and results of statistical analyses. It can also perform selections of cases based on given characteristics.

FALSECAT: Final Report

This report by Willy Smith, UNICAT director, details the FALSECAT project, which aimed to create a catalog of 100% identified flying objects (IFOs) for statistical comparisons with UNICAT. The project received answers from 34 persons and collected imaginary cases from 27 countries. The analysis shows a high percentage of cases from South America, partly due to USA correspondents submitting imaginary cases from that region. The report compares FALSECAT with UNICAT across various categories, including types of cases (CE 1-4, DD, NL, RV), number of witnesses (single/multiple), time of day, day of the week, and duration. The conclusion is that the catalog of imaginary cases does not differ statistically from UNICAT, making the FALSECAT effort seem like a "waste of time." This unexpected result is attributed to the participants being well-seasoned ufologists who were guided by their knowledge of the phenomenon when creating imaginary cases.

A New Database for MS-DOS Machines

This article by Xavier Burot introduces C.I.R.U. (Club Informatique de Recherche Ufologique), a French group developing a network and database for UFO sightings. The group's first product is a software program called "UFO 1" designed to aid investigators in producing UFO reports. The software features full compatibility across different microcomputers via a common RS 232 port and aims to establish a UFO data bank on networks like Minitel. The hardware requirements include an IBM PC XT/AT, 128 Kbytes RAM, a floppy drive, CGA graphics, and Microsoft BASIC 2.x. The program consists of seven subprograms for creating, viewing, correcting, listing, printing, and deleting file cards. The program is being translated for Apple IIe computers and a version for Amstrad 664/6128 is planned.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the systematic and scientific approach to ufology, emphasizing the use of computers, databases, and statistical analysis. The newsletter highlights the efforts of various researchers and groups to organize and analyze UFO data, moving beyond anecdotal evidence towards more structured investigations. The editorial stance appears to be one of encouraging rigorous research and technological integration within the field of ufology, while acknowledging the challenges and unexpected outcomes, such as the findings of the FALSECAT project.

Title: COMPUTER UFO NEWSLETTER
Issue: 2,1
Volume: 2
Date: September 1987
Publisher: COMPUTER UFO NEWSLETTER
Country: France
Language: English

This issue features an in-depth article by Denys Breysse titled "CONSTRUCTION OF THE INFORMATION INDEX," which explores methodologies for evaluating and categorizing UFO cases.

Indexing UFO Cases: Meaning and Usefulness

The article begins by explaining the purpose of an information index in the context of UFO research: to assign a value to coded cases based on the available data. It highlights that various coding systems utilize indexes to quantify information. Several examples of existing indexes are presented:

• Index of information by C. Poher: Assigns equal weight to all coded information.
• Index of reliability for S.O.B.E.P.S. OVNILOG system: Based on four parameters: number, age, and job of witnesses, and the conditions (when and where) of the sighting.
• Index of reliability by T.M. Olsen: Considers three probabilities: witness reporting correctly, investigation referring to unexplained phenomena, and third-party sources reporting correctly.
• Index of strangeness by W. Smyth (UNICAT): Established on the presence or absence of specific motifs within the case.

The author notes that many indexes are developed arbitrarily, while some are kept secret.

Aims of the Index

The primary aim is to define what a given index value should mean for each case. The concept of a real UFO/IFO "discernability" is introduced. The article suggests that by dividing a large file of cases (e.g., 2000 cases) into smaller groups based on an "probability of solidity" index, statistical studies can be conducted to verify hypotheses. If no discernability is found, the hypothesis should be rejected. The goal is to find a means to test the raw material of cases based on their intrinsic value, using terms like "probability of solidity" and "information."

Quantity of Useful Information

The article proposes "index of useful information" as a more precise definition. "Useful information" is defined as data that aids in identifying the case or refuting explanatory hypotheses. A fictional example illustrates this: a witness reporting a cigar-shaped UFO with specific characteristics (bright portholes, speed, distance, altitude) is analyzed. Identification becomes practically sure when additional information, such as the presence of a railway and a passing train, is known. The author stresses the importance of considering parameters that might lead to incorrect explanations or hinder identification.

In the initial stage, each coding parameter should be assigned a value reflecting the useful information it provides for confirming or refuting hypotheses.

Index Construction Methods

Three methods for index construction are discussed:

1. In-depth study of UFO & IFO investigation reports: To find the frequency by which a parameter allows deduction of identification or labeling a case as "unexplained." This method is considered a good solution but requires significant time and resources. It also faces difficulties in calculating the "weight" of a single parameter when multiple parameters are involved.
2. Comparison between UFO and IFO characteristics: Methods like those used by GEPAN, Delaval, and others aim to fix important parameters. However, available studies are often incomplete, and statistical information is insufficient.
3. Mixture of the previous two methods: Combining knowledge of UFO literature, statistical results, and personal intuition to achieve results without a huge investment of time.

Scale of Values Criteria

Fundamental criteria for establishing a scale of values are outlined:

• If basic parameters (like date or witness name) are unknown, the index should have a minimum value (e.g., zero).
• The calculation of the scale must be simple.
• The absolute values are less important than the internal coherence of the scale regarding the relative "weights" of the parameters.
• The scale should be adaptable to future improvements and developments in research.

For each parameter, the following steps are proposed:

• Assigning points for capacity: 0 to 8 points based on the parameter's own capacity to help or refuse explanation. This is divided into 0-4 points for physical explanations (e.g., meteorological phenomena) and 0-4 points for psycho-sociological explanations (e.g., hallucination).
• Adding points for frequency: 0 to 4 points based on how frequently a parameter appears in the casuistry. Rare effects are considered more useful than common parameters.
• Subtracting points for probability of error: 0 to 3 points based on the probability of error in the given value. Place of sighting is considered the most reliable information, while quantitative parameters and correlations with effects are more prone to distortion.
• Subtracting points for coding bias: 0 to 3 points based on the bias inherent in coding systems, which can degrade information due to imprecision.

Concluding Remarks

The "weight" of a parameter is considered more important than its correctness, rarity, or freedom from errors. The task of creating a representative and objective index is acknowledged as difficult, requiring concrete experience and extensive debate. While perfect justification of specific values may be impossible, internal coherence and overall results are prioritized over minor imprecisions. The article concludes by listing the parameters involved in the calculation and their respective percentages:

• Temporal parameters: 19%
• Spatial parameters: 14%
• Witness: 17%
• UFO: 22%
• Entities: 16%
• Interference witness/entities: 3%
• Effects: 9%

Related Publications and Future Work

Becassine's "Checkpoint number 6" (August 1987) is mentioned as not being published in this newsletter because it consists of statistical tables. The complete paper, containing preliminary results of 50 statistical analyses on 978 close encounters of the third kind cases from various countries, can be requested directly from the author. The newsletter announces a future article by Breysse reviewing his work and related aims.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme is the scientific and systematic approach to UFO research, emphasizing the need for robust methodologies to analyze and categorize sightings. The editorial stance appears to favor rigorous, data-driven analysis and the development of objective tools for evaluating UFO phenomena. The newsletter aims to provide a platform for detailed research and discussion within the UFO community.