Computer UFO Newsletter - Vol 1 no 3 - 1986 01

Magazine Overview

Title: THE COMPUTER UFO NEWSLETTER
Issue: Volume 01, Number 03
Date: January 1986
Publisher: Italian Center for UFO Studies
Country: ITALY
Language: English
Price: 14,000 Italian lire (for six issues)

This issue of The Computer UFO Newsletter is primarily dedicated to the integration of computer technology into ufological research. It explores the challenges and potential of creating standardized databases for UFO case files and introduces Project UFODATA, a significant effort in Denmark to computerize and analyze UFO and IFO reports.

Editorial: The Need for a Standardized UFO Database

The editorial section, likely written by Maurizio Verga, discusses the ongoing debate about the best database approach for UFO case files. The author emphasizes the need for a common database program that can produce sequential files, facilitating data exchange between different machines. The goal is to avoid redundant work and develop a shared methodology.

The editorial highlights the importance of having a unique program for all researchers to save time and effort, rather than developing individual, often custom, software like ITACAT and UFODOC, which are deemed time-consuming and potentially inefficient.

The first crucial step identified is to define the parameters (fields) that should be included in a UFO database. The proposed fields are:

1. An eventual code or reference number on a national basis
2. Date
3. Hour
4. Location
5. Classification
6. Evaluation
7. [Chief] Sources

The editorial contrasts this limited set of fields with the more extensive coding proposed in the 1970s. The author expresses skepticism about storing massive amounts of data due to the unreliability of information and the limitations of personal computers. Furthermore, there's a concern about the difficulty of coding subjective human experiences like UFO sightings into objective data, which might lead to falsification.

The proposed database structure is seen as a practical solution, a reference work to aid researchers in handling UFO casuistry. The author acknowledges that personal computers are typically used by individuals, making large-scale collaborative projects challenging. The proposed fields are considered "sure" parameters, valuable for information, and time-saving.

The editorial also touches upon the limitations of common low-cost personal/home computers and the need for a common program for quick data exchange.

Computerizing UFO Data: The Commodore 64 and Beyond

The discussion then shifts to practical implementation, particularly for the Commodore 64/128, which is noted as having wide diffusion among ufologists. The challenge is that many ufologists use tape recorders, necessitating simple databases that generate sequential files. Two possible solutions are presented:

• Employing sophisticated software exclusively for disk drives.
• Using two different programs, one for disk and one for tape, but with a consistent structure.

The author favors the first option but acknowledges resource limitations. The second option is considered an acceptable compromise.

Several powerful database programs are mentioned, including SUPERBASE, MULTIDATA, PRACTIFILE, THE CONSULTANT, and VIZASTAR. VIZASTAR is noted as powerful but expensive and requiring a cartridge. Many of these programs use random files, allowing for unlimited records, which bypasses RAM limitations of the C-64 but can increase processing time.

The importance of having a program with a version for the C-128 is highlighted, allowing for manipulation of C-64 files on a more powerful computer. SUPERBASE is recommended as a suitable database due to its low cost and features. The possibility of supplying a customized version for personal use is mentioned.

SUPERBASE is described as having remarkable characteristics, including 1108 characters, 127 fields, and four screens per record. Users can define field names, numbers, and sizes, with one field designated as the key-field for search options.

The fundamental data fields proposed for a UFO events database are reiterated:

• DATE (6 characters)
• HOUR (4 characters)
• LOCATION (30 characters)
• PROVINCE/REGION (3 characters)
• CLASSIFICATION (*) (10 characters)
• EVALUATION (10 characters)
• NOTES (30 characters)
• (Chief ??) SOURCES (a whole page)

The editorial suggests that such a structure could be applied to various types of casuistry, from "nocturnal lights" to close encounters. A common database would simplify data exchange and processing. The author acknowledges the ambitious nature of this goal, given that ufology is often a hobby, but considers the establishment of a standard database a significant success. The possibility of transferring data between a Commodore 64 and an Apple II is mentioned as an ongoing project in Italy, aiming for more advanced analyses on the Apple II.

Notes on Classification

A section titled "NOTES" clarifies the classification system, particularly for "events." It mentions using the Hynek classification with modifications, as employed in ITACAT and by European UFO associations. Further information is proposed, including codes for:

• T = Traces
• A = Animal disturbance
• E = "Electro Magnetic" effects
• P = Physiological effects
• L = Photo or Film available

A CE 2, CE 3, or CE 4 followed by an asterisk (*) is suggested to denote cases without the perception of a real UFO phenomenon, such as "mysterious" nests or "bedroom visitors."

Project UFODATA: Electronic Data Processing in Denmark

This section introduces Project UFODATA, led by Per Andersen, a Danish UFO researcher and computer scientist. The project focuses on the electronic data processing of all Danish UFO and IFO reports. The paper presented by Andersen at the First International B.U.F.O.R.A. Congress in 1979 is highlighted as still relevant.

The Reason for Using Electronic Data Processing

Andersen outlines two main approaches to explaining UFO phenomena: qualitative and quantitative analyses.

• Qualitative Analyses: Involves in-depth study of selected significant reports, like close encounters. This method can deepen understanding but requires high-quality reports and expert investigators.
• Quantitative Analyses: Applied when dealing with a large volume of reports. Individual reports are significant as part of a larger dataset. This method does not require exceptionally good reports and can reveal general aspects or patterns of UFO behavior.

Advantages and Challenges of Electronic Data Processing

Electronic data processing offers significant advantages for analyzing large datasets. Reports become easily accessible, allowing for quick retrieval of specific categories of information (e.g., reports describing specific object colors or numbers). This is a stark contrast to the time-consuming manual search of reports.

Statistics can also be easily generated, enabling complex analyses like cross-tabulations. While manual analysis of such data would be extremely time-consuming, computers can perform these tasks much faster.

However, challenges exist. A good and efficient system for report collection is essential. Quantitative analyses can be costly, and UFO organizations may struggle to afford the necessary computer time or resources. There's also the risk of "misuse of extensive files" or "GIGO" (Garbage In, Garbage Out), emphasizing the need for conscientious programmers and statisticians.

Another concern is the proliferation of UFO organizations developing their own data banks, potentially leading to chaotic international data processing if not managed carefully. Andersen states he will return to this issue later.

The Development of Project UFODATA

Project UFODATA began in 1977 with Andersen's papers on data processing, coding, and a test system. A lecture in July 1977 led to the agreement to start electronic data processing. The project officially commenced in September 1977 when Andersen became a consultant for SUFOI.

The initial tasks involved clarifying the code-book, which was completed and made available in January 1978, and has since been revised. The encoding of reports began, and the first results, including an analysis of the "Time Law" (time of day UFOs are observed), were produced in February 1978.

Andersen studied the SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) system, a widely used tool for statistical analysis. He found that the existing encoding of UFO and IFO reports could be integrated with SPSS, leading to its adoption by Project UFODATA.

By March 1979, all Danish reports from 1976 had been coded and punched, totaling about 500 reports. By the time of writing (1979), the project had reached approximately 700 reports, with five operators working on it, and plans to expand.

Project UFODATA: The Coding of Reports

Project UFODATA encodes both UFO and IFO reports, providing insights into how identifiable flying objects are perceived. The primary material consists of original Danish reports, news clippings, and reports from Danish UFO organizations.

Reports are coded onto data-sheets, and then punched onto punched cards. The code-book is used for this process. The data bank is formed by these punched reports.

A dilemma exists in deciding what data to include: maximizing information per report versus coding as many reports as possible. This often leads to omitting desirable parameters.

The project also faces a choice between emphasizing physical explanations of UFO phenomena or sociological/psychological explanations, influencing the choice of parameters.

The parameters applied are categorized as follows:

• Identification: An eleven-figure number including year, month, and date of encounter.
• Place: The postal area of the encounter site.
• Time: Information on the exact time and duration of the encounter.
• The Object: Numerous parameters regarding the observed object, including number, color, light radiation, sound effects, appearance/disappearance, direction, altitude, and speed. Data for multiple objects can be coded.
• Circumstances: A two-figured code for weather conditions during the encounter.
• The Observer: Encodes age, sex, employment, and number of witnesses.
• Reference: Details about the report's origin, date, and any references in "UFO-NYT" or other magazines.
• Comments: Additional information about the encounter, including rare details or specific characteristics like "close encounter" or EM effects.

Strangeness and Reliability Parameters

• Strangeness: Coded by degree, from 0 (missing/unknown) to 9 (highest). The scale is subjective, determined by the field investigator.
• Reliability: Expresses the trustworthiness of the account, also coded from 0 (missing/unknown) to 9 (highest). Directives guide the investigator in determining these degrees.

These parameters are used for coding both UFO and IFO reports.

Project UFODATA: The Processing of Reports

Project UFODATA utilizes the SPSS system for processing. SPSS is a comprehensive statistical package used globally in social sciences. It allows for various analyses, from simple frequency tables to advanced statistical tests.

The processing involves two stages: creating an SPSS system file and then performing the actual analyses. The system requires data in a specific "quadrangular" format, meaning a definite number of reports, each with a definite number of parameters.

Parameters can include date, number of objects, etc. The system is fed with both the report data and additional information about the constituent parameters. The output is the SPSS system file, containing the data.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme throughout this issue is the critical role of computerization and data management in advancing ufological research. The editorial stance is pragmatic, advocating for standardization, efficiency, and the use of accessible technology like personal computers. There's a clear emphasis on the need for collaboration and shared methodologies among researchers to overcome the inherent challenges of studying a complex and often subjective phenomenon like UFOs. The adoption of Project UFODATA and the SPSS system signifies a move towards more rigorous, data-driven analysis in the field.

This issue of CUFON (CUFON 3) focuses on "Project UFODATA," detailing its efforts in electronic data processing of UFO and IFO reports, particularly from Denmark. The magazine explores the technical aspects of data analysis, the importance of international cooperation in ufology, and introduces new software and research projects.

Project UFODATA: Data Processing and Analysis

The magazine details the methodology of Project UFODATA, which utilizes a system file for statistical analysis, often in conjunction with SPSS. A "job-generator" program is highlighted as a tool to simplify the process for ufologists with less computer experience, minimizing errors and reruns. The system file serves not only for statistical analyses but also as an electronic report-file or data bank, allowing for easy retrieval of reports.

Project UFODATA has processed approximately 700 UFO and IFO reports, contributing to significant studies. One notable result is the book "The Time Law" (published in 1978), which analyzed the time-of-day distribution of Danish UFO encounters and investigated potential links to foreign analyses and natural factors. The project aims to answer three key questions regarding these distributions.

International Cooperation and Data Banks

A significant portion of the issue is dedicated to the future of international cooperation in processing UFO and IFO reports. Per Andersen discusses the challenges and benefits of different approaches to data management. He contrasts the work of Project UFODATA (local data files) with larger, centralized data banks like UFOCAT in the USA.

Andersen argues against the establishment of numerous large, centralized data banks, citing disadvantages such as redundant work, inconsistent encoding of reports, and the potential for information to be based on secondary sources (like UFO magazines) rather than firsthand accounts. He advocates for a trend towards decentralized computer systems and smaller, local data banks managed by UFO organizations worldwide.

Advantages of decentralized encoding include ensuring that data is handled by ufologists with local knowledge, leading to more accurate encoding based on original reports, and achieving broader geographical coverage. To facilitate this, Andersen suggests the need for consistent terminology, definitions, and classification systems, essentially learning to "speak the same language."

He proposes the establishment of an international group for data-interested ufologists to ensure efficient international cooperation. This group could adopt either a centralized structure (coordinating efforts, issuing newsletters) or a decentralized structure (direct communication between organizations). The centralized approach is deemed more efficient and reliable if the central group is dependable, while the decentralized approach avoids reliance on a single entity but may be slower.

E.D.A. Program for Investigators

The issue introduces the E.D.A. (Elaborazione Dati Avvistamento) program, developed by Italian researchers Sergio Bianchi and Luigi Di Ruzza of G.S.E. This program is designed for personal/home computers (specifically Commodore 64) and aims to calculate various parameters related to UFO sightings. It focuses on geometrical and trigonometrical calculations, requiring precise information about the sighting location.

The E.D.A. program can calculate parameters such as UFO real and apparent sizes, distances (terrestrial and air), height, speed, space covered, and credibility/strangeness coefficients. It uses a system for estimating credibility based on factors like the number of witnesses, independent testimonies, witness personality, physical traces, and the source of the report. The program also incorporates a "tipological scale" to help operators categorize sightings and assess their strangeness.

While the program has limitations, particularly when dealing with vague reports or when technical measurements cannot be taken at the sighting location, it is considered a valuable tool for analyzing "close encounters" and providing hints regarding distance and size.

Important Notice and Software Offer

An "Important Notice" addresses the defunct status of the old Centro Ufologico Nazionale (C.U.N.) in Italy due to internal issues. It announces the establishment of the Italian Center for UFO Studies (ICUFOS), which aims to promote UFO research and information circulation. ICUFOS plans to publish a new UFO magazine with English and French abstracts.

Within ICUFOS, the Rete Ufologica Computerizzata (R.U.C.) is a sub-association of members with personal computers. R.U.C. is working on storing Italian UFO cases in a common database and preparing texts for the ICUFOS magazine. They also plan a Bulletin Board Service, though its establishment is delayed.

Additionally, the issue features an "Offer of Software" for a database developed by Marco Bottaini for storing Italian UFO cases on an Apple IIc. The software includes a graphic generator and is available in both Italian and English versions, or as a printed report.

Database for Entity Cases

Denys Breysse, a French researcher, is developing a new computerized database for "entity cases." His work focuses on searching for constant motifs within witness accounts, drawing inspiration from folklore studies and researchers like J. Hind. The database selects cases based on whether they are related to the UFO phenomenon (explicitly or implicitly) and whether they are detailed enough to include the date, location, and number of witnesses. Both explained and unexplained cases are included.

Breysse's project utilizes an Amstrad CPC 464 micro-computer with two disc drives and a printer for data storage. He estimates needing about a year to code a significant number of cases and obtain initial statistical results, dedicating approximately ten hours per week to this work.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the increasing professionalization of UFO research through data processing, computerization, and statistical analysis. There is a strong emphasis on the need for international cooperation to share knowledge, data, and methodologies. The magazine appears to favor a more scientific and systematic approach to ufology, as evidenced by the detailed discussions on database management, software development, and analytical programs like E.D.A. The editorial stance supports the development of robust, data-driven research and collaborative efforts within the global ufological community.

This document, titled 'Notes on current projects', is issue number 21, dated February 1985. It appears to be a section from a newsletter or a similar publication focused on UFO research.

Current Projects

The publication details ongoing projects related to UFO case analysis. These projects aim to:

• Lists and Selections: Create coded lists of all cases, allowing for selection based on specific criteria (e.g., all Italian cases with animal effects in 1954). The output will include sorted lists and more detailed studies, with print-outs available to anyone.
• Descriptive Statistics: Calculate frequencies for various modalities within the case data and present results using figures on screen or printer.
• Factorial Analysis: This is highlighted as the most interesting part of the work. It involves studying the internal coherence of the case corpus, searching for associations among modalities, identifying discriminant variables, and potentially finding types of case groups. The author requests opinions and suggestions on this aspect and plans a checkpoint when ideas are more detailed.

Limitations

Beyond the time constraints, the primary limitations are related to the 'tool coding' process, which includes writing the codebook and codifying the cases. However, the author hopes these limitations will not prevent interesting results.

Bibliographical References

The issue lists two references:

1. J. Hind (1979). 'Using UFO motifs'. MAGONIA 2, 3-8.
2. D. Breysse (1985). 'La duree des phenomenes OVNI: aide a' la discernabilite''. OVNI PRESENCE 9, 32, 22-34.

Acknowledgements

The publication expresses sincere thanks to Mr. Francesco Alfieri of Catanzaro Lido, Italy, for his valuable contribution in transcribing Andersen's long paper using the 'Easy Script' word-processor. His help is greatly appreciated in this 'one-man Newsletter'.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The publication demonstrates a methodical and analytical approach to UFO research, emphasizing data collection, statistical analysis, and the potential for deeper insights through techniques like factorial analysis. The editorial stance appears to be collaborative, actively seeking input from readers on complex analytical aspects. There is a clear focus on organizing and understanding large datasets of UFO cases.