BUFORA Bulletin - No 28 - May 1988

Magazine Overview

Title: BUFORA BULLETIN
Issue: Number 28
Date: May 1988
Publisher: BUFORA Ltd (British UFO Research Association)
Country: United Kingdom
ISSN: 0265 1947
Price: £1.50

This issue of the BUFORA Bulletin, dated May 1988, focuses heavily on the controversial "mirage theory" as an explanation for many UFO sightings. It also includes an exclusive interview with author Whitley Strieber and a report on a peculiar sighting in Tibet.

Editorial

The editorial section, written by Mike Wootten, reflects on the current state of ufology, noting a shift in direction. It contrasts the 1950s Extraterrestrial Hypothesis (ETH), which posited that UFO occupants originated from within the solar system, with more recent "down to earth" ideas like meteorological hypotheses, such as ball lightning. The editorial credits researchers like Persinger and Devereux for introducing new concepts. However, it expresses concern that ufology in the United States appears to be stuck in the past, focusing on "little green men" and "crashed saucers," which the author fears could regress the field by thirty years. The editorial argues that ufology is a multifaceted phenomenon encompassing sociology, psychology, and parapsychology, and should not be limited solely to abduction cases. It calls for researchers to be honest and base conclusions on hard facts rather than belief and rumour.

Mirages Explain UFO Reports

This feature article by Steuart Campbell presents his controversial theory that most UFO reports are not evidence of genuine unidentified flying objects but are instead caused by atmospheric mirages. Campbell explains that mirages are caused by the total reflection (refraction) of light at a boundary between air layers of different temperatures (a thermocline), which acts like a mirror. He distinguishes between inferior mirages (seen on hot surfaces) and superior mirages, which occur when a temperature inversion forms above the ground, creating mirage images in the air. These superior mirages can be double, inverted, magnified, and elevated, potentially explaining many UFO sightings.

Campbell asserts that the famous Kenneth Arnold sighting in 1947 was a mirage of mountains. He discusses how bright, low-altitude objects, including astronomical bodies, can be subjects of mirages. The "Novaya Zemlya effect" is described as a mirage that can make objects below the horizon visible on it, enlarged and distorted. The article provides examples such as the 1978 New Zealand film of Venus, and films from Great Falls (Montana) and Tremonton (Utah) which showed twin images, possibly of stars like Deneb, attributed to moving thermoclines.

Specific cases discussed include the Socorro (New Mexico) incident of 1964, attributed to a mirage of Canopus, and the 1956 RCAF pilot Robert Childerhouse photograph, identified as a double mirage of the star Vega. The Motunau photograph and a painting from Scotland are also suggested as possible mirages of stars like Spica and Antares.

Mirages of planets, such as Mars and Jupiter, are also presented as explanations for UFO reports. The article mentions the Livingston incident (Venus mirage), a 1968 painting of Mars, and a 1969 photograph from New Zealand attributed to a Jupiter mirage. Jupiter's sensational appearance in 1958 at Ilha da Trindade (Trinity Island) is described as a discoid object caused by a highly curved thermocline.

Campbell argues that mirage theory can explain reports from various eras, including 19th-century airship sightings, "foo fighters" of World War II, and the Korean War. He also suggests that cases like the Betty and Barney Hill incident might be explained by a mirage of Antares, and the Delphos (Kansas) landing report by a mirage of Saturn.

Dangers of Mirages: Campbell highlights the dangers of misinterpreting mirages, citing the case of Captain Mantell, who died chasing a mirage of Jupiter in 1948, and Frederick Valentich, who disappeared after being confused by a mirage of Canopus in 1978. He also mentions an incident over Alaska where a Japanese pilot mistook a mirage for a pursuing spacecraft, and an RB-47 surveillance aircraft incident possibly initiated by a mirage of Fomalhaut.

Conclusion: Campbell concludes that the astronomical mirage hypothesis not only explains the consistent form of reported UFOs but also their worldwide provenance. He states that other hypotheses are superfluous, as mirage theory thoroughly explains the UFO problem. He acknowledges that mirage theory cannot explain all aspects of reports, such as perceived heat or physiological effects, but suggests these can be attributed to normal perceptual distortions, false associations, and human fear responses, emphasizing the unreliability of human perception and memory.

A Tibetan UFO

Manfred Cassirer reports on a sighting during the Butter Festival at the Potala in Lhasa, Tibet, which appeared on national television news on March 7th. The footage showed a luminous object in the sky, described as having two dome-like structures. While the footage was shown without comment and attracted little press attention, it prompted two additional reports: one describing a differently shaped configuration and another dismissing it as lens-flare. The article suggests that extreme religious fervour, engendered by great emotion, could sometimes create such luminosities. Further research is needed, and neither the Buddhist Society nor the Dalai Lama's office had any comment.

Other Content

• Second Exclusive Whitley Strieber Interview: Mentioned on the cover, but content not detailed in the provided pages.
• Contents Page: Lists articles including "Editorial," "Mirages Explain UFO Reports," "The Statistical Treatment of UFO Reports" by Paul Fuller, "Astronomical UFOs" by Ian Ridpath, "Scottish UFOs, Revisited" by Malcolm Robinson, "Communion Two" by Mike Wootten, and "The Computer as an Ace UFO Reporter" by Jenny Randles.
• Membership Information: Details about BUFORA's aims, membership, and member societies are provided.
• Copyright: BUFORA Ltd 1988. Material is permissible for personal use by members, with acknowledgement required for publication.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme is the critical examination of UFO phenomena through scientific and rational explanations, particularly the mirage theory. The editorial stance is one of advocating for rigorous, evidence-based research, critiquing the perceived overemphasis on sensationalism and less substantiated theories (like abduction cases) within ufology, especially in the US. There is a clear push towards demystifying UFO reports by applying established scientific principles and acknowledging the limitations and fallibility of human perception and reporting.

This issue of the BUFORA Bulletin, Number 28, focuses on the critical examination of statistical methods used within ufology. The primary article, "The Statistical Treatment of UFO Reports" by Paul Fuller, a professional statistician, argues that many ufologists misuse statistical techniques to 'prove' or 'disprove' their theories. Fuller emphasizes that statistics are an art as much as a science, relying on assumptions that are often overlooked.

The Problem of Sampling

Paul Fuller identifies sampling as the most crucial problem. He explains that when analyzing UFO reports, researchers are working with a sample from a larger population of all possible UFO reports. The critical error ufologists make is pretending that the representativeness of their sample does not matter. Fuller uses the analogy of predicting a General Election outcome by only polling in a single constituency (Finchley) to illustrate how a biased sample can lead to incorrect conclusions about the wider population.

He stresses that a representative sample is essential for statistical inference. The concept extends beyond simple geographical distribution to include all variables that might affect the quality of data or the reporting itself. Fuller asserts that no database of UFO reports he has encountered has avoided this basic premise of sampling bias.

The Battelle Memorial Institute Study

Fuller critiques the 1953 US Air Force study by the Battelle Memorial Institute, which statistically evaluated 2199 UFO reports. While the study aimed to find rational explanations by comparing known misidentifications with 'unknowns,' Fuller questions whether the sample was representative. He points out factors that could have influenced reporting, such as the location of military bases (leading to more urban witnesses being less likely to report than rural ones), and the varying awareness of reporting procedures.

Bias in Data Collection

Fuller further argues that even if geographical reporting were uniform, the investigation and recording of reports might not have been uniform. He references J. Allen Hynek's observation that the process of passing on a report often depended on the whim of the intelligence officer. This inherent bias affects the reliability of collected data.

Random Sampling

To address these issues, Fuller suggests that a better method of sampling would involve ensuring all citizens have an equal chance of reporting sightings, perhaps by publicizing an accessible reporting method like contacting the police. This would align with the statistician's definition of an unbiased sample. He extends this criticism to Allan Hendry's work, questioning the representativeness of witnesses' awareness of reporting hotlines.

Astronomical UFOs by Ian Ridpath

Ian Ridpath, a science writer and member of CSICOP, offers a skeptical perspective, highlighting how prosaic astronomical bodies are frequently misidentified as UFOs. He notes that over half of identified nocturnal lights in a US study were accounted for by stars, planets, and satellite re-entries.

Lights in the Sky

Ridpath explains that many people are unfamiliar with the night sky, leading to confusion. Credible witnesses, including teachers, policemen, and pilots, can be surprised by bright stars, planets, or meteors. Descriptions like 'hovering,' 'flashing coloured lights,' or 'rotating' can be characteristic of celestial objects like Sirius. He also points out that optical defects in binoculars can create spurious shapes and colors. Common witness statements such as 'it wasn't there before' or 'it appeared to move slowly' are consistent with the apparent movement of stars and planets due to Earth's rotation.

Autokinetic Effect

The autokinetic effect, where the eye's natural movements make a stationary object appear to move, is discussed as another source of misidentification, particularly with satellites that can appear to zig-zag.

Misjudging Distance and Size

Ridpath emphasizes that witnesses often underestimate the distance and overestimate the size and brightness of objects. Observations from moving vehicles, especially aircraft, are particularly suspect due to the lack of a fixed frame of reference. He notes that planets millions of miles away, aircraft thousands of feet away, or a torch bulb yards away can appear similar in size and brightness at night.

Venus as a UFO Culprit

Planet Venus is highlighted as a frequent cause of misidentification. Its extreme brightness can dazzle the eye, making it appear cross-shaped. Venus appears as the 'evening star' or 'morning star,' and its appearance can be startlingly bright.

#### Case Studies of Venus Misidentification

Two cases are presented: one involving a photograph taken in St. Leonards-on-Sea, Sussex, in 1967, where the object was identified as Venus. The second case involved a witness who later became President Jimmy Carter, reporting a UFO in Leary, Georgia, in 1969, which Sheaffer identified as Venus. Both cases involved overestimation of size and brightness, underestimation of distance, and misinterpretation of motion.

Another case describes a 'close encounter' with Venus that was mistaken for a craft, even by a physics professor, due to a misunderstanding of Spain's time zone. The child's sickness was attributed to fear and travel sickness.

The Moon and Other Planets

Even the moon can be misidentified. A case is described where witnesses observed a 'saucer' accompanied by pulsating lights, later determined to be the crescent moon with Mars and Jupiter, with mist obscuring the view.

Meteors as UFOs

Meteors, or shooting stars, are also discussed. While less easy to identify after the event, their sudden streaks of light, varying durations, and occasional fragmentation can be mistaken for UFOs. Bright meteors, or 'bolides,' can be as bright as the moon and visible for extended periods, even in daylight.

An example is given of pilots mistaking a daylight fireball for a formation of UFOs, illustrating how experienced observers can err in identification and distance estimation.

BUFORA RESEARCH NEWS

This section announces a detailed 42-page report commissioned by BUFORA and the Tornado and Storm Research Organisation, written by Paul Fuller. This report investigates 'Mystery Circles'—geometrically shaped crop damage that has occurred across Southern England since 1980. The report is available in a limited edition for academic consumption.

Book Review: 'Phenomenon'

A book titled 'Phenomenon,' a complete anthology of international UFO research edited by John Spencer and Hilary Evans, is advertised. It is available in hardback and paperback from BUFORA (PUBS) and other bookshops.

Members Notice

An appeal is made for individuals interested in starting a UFO investigation network for the West Country. Contact details for Robert Moore are provided, along with a request for Mr. Gordon Wood and Mr. John Walker to make contact.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme throughout this issue is the critical analysis of UFO reports and the methodologies used to study them. The editorial stance, particularly through the contributions of Paul Fuller and Ian Ridpath, leans towards skepticism and emphasizes the importance of rigorous scientific methodology, particularly in statistical analysis and the identification of mundane explanations for alleged UFO sightings. There is a strong focus on the unreliability of witness testimony when not corroborated by objective data and the need for careful consideration of sampling bias and misidentification. The publication also highlights ongoing research into phenomena like crop circles, suggesting a commitment to in-depth, unbiased investigation.

Title: BUFORA Bulletin
Issue: Number 28
Document Type: Magazine Issue
Publisher: BUFORA
Country: United Kingdom
Language: English

Artificial Satellites and UFO Misidentification

The issue begins by addressing the common observation of artificial satellites, noting that despite Sputnik I being launched 30 years prior, many people are still surprised to see satellites in orbit. These objects, visible as stars slowly moving across the sky, can appear to flash, fade, or move erratically due to eye effects or Earth's shadow. Arthur C. Clarke is cited, describing an instance where the Echo satellite appeared to stop and hover, attributing this to observer excitement and difficulty in assessing motion. The article also mentions that the Space Shuttle will likely generate more UFO reports. The phenomenon of satellite re-entries is also discussed, with fragments appearing like cigar-shaped UFOs with portholes, citing examples of a Soviet Zond 4 spacecraft re-entry witnessed as a cigar-shaped craft and three saucer-shaped UFOs in formation.

Predictions of satellite passages and re-entries are handled by a department at the University of Aston and a satellite tracking unit at the Royal Greenwich Observatory.

Scottish UFOs, Revisited: Witness Accounts

The magazine then presents a series of witness accounts of unexplained aerial phenomena in Scotland.

The Clarke Incident (April 1982)

Mrs. Alison Clarke reported seeing what she thought was a shooting star. Her husband, Mr. John Clarke, observed a stationary, oval-shaped object, estimated to be four to five miles away. He noted a distinct line at the bottom right edge and an appendage appearing to rise from the main body. The object then reduced in size and disappeared. Mr. Clarke, an experienced observer of the sky, found this unusual.

Miss Linda Taylor's Sighting (October 1980)

Miss Linda Taylor of Denny reported seeing a vivid red light above a house. The object appeared egg-shaped and had a white band of light through its centre. It remained stationary for about ten minutes before lifting straight up into the sky at a fair speed.

The Walls Family Sighting (February 1982)

John Walls, his wife Ann, and their son, while driving from Falkirk to Denny, witnessed a very bright orange spherical light above a bank of trees. Ann likened its brightness to a belisha beacon. The light had a distinct centre and hazy edges. When they stopped to view it, the light was no longer visible.

Mr. Terence Dempsy's Observation (August 1981)

Mr. Terence Dempsy of Denny saw a round white light, approximately 20 feet above the ground, moving very slowly. It stopped and hovered for about 30 seconds before moving away. He estimated the sighting duration to be about three minutes and noted no associated noise. The conditions were clear with virtually no wind.

Hypotheses: Ball Lightning and Earth Light

The article explores potential explanations for some of these sightings. Ball lightning is suggested as a possibility, noting that it can appear in various weather conditions. The 'Earth Light Hypothesis,' postulated by Paul Devereux, is also discussed. This hypothesis suggests that luminous UFO reports are caused by geological strain, resulting in a plasma of hot ionised gases that move erratically.

A peculiar footnote to Mr. Dempsy's sighting is mentioned: shortly after the light disappeared, a light plane and a helicopter were observed searching the area.

Elsie Beveridge's Extensive UFO Experiences

Mrs. Elsie Beveridge, a 'repeater witness' from Denny, has had numerous UFO sightings.

Early Sightings (1979)

Her first sighting was in Glasgow in 1979, where she saw a dome-shaped object moving at an angle, which moved up and down before shooting into the sky. In 1978, while in Denny, she and her daughter observed a yellow beam of light descending from the sky, which swayed and then moved away, revealing an object's outline.

Large Object and Formation Sightings

In 1982, Elsie witnessed an object the size of a Lancaster Bomber with three enormous lights, which transformed into a large triangle, illuminating the surroundings. She also reported seeing ten objects in formation above Denny and twelve balls of light in a circle, one of which hovered for over an hour.

Investigations and Contact Attempts

Elsie has attempted to draw attention to her experiences by contacting newspapers and the Airforce, but claims no one paid attention. She also reported hearing strange noises and footsteps in her home.

Whitley Strieber's Abduction Claims and Medical Examinations

The issue features a second exclusive interview with Mike Wootten regarding Whitley Strieber's 'Communion' and his claims of abduction by 'Visitors'.

Neurological Scans

Strieber underwent complex neurological examinations at New York University Hospital, including magnetic resolution scans to produce detailed 3D images of his brain. The neurologist performing the examination, who wished to remain nameless, concluded that Strieber's brain appeared physiologically normal with a perfect circulatory system.

Abnormalities Detected

Despite the overall normality, three punctate foci, described as small ball bearings, of high resolution were detected in the cerebral white matter, specifically in the frontal lobe and temporal parietal regions. This condition, known as Demyelination, is normally associated with Multiple Sclerosis, but no other MS symptoms were found.

Possible Explanations and Ongoing Research

The neurologists are investigating the theory that these punctate foci might be insertions made by the 'Visitors', analyzing the point and angle of entry of needles recalled by Strieber. Strieber stresses the importance of these examinations and is anxious for other abductees to undergo similar tests.

Public Reaction and Book Sales

The paperback version of Strieber's book 'Communion' is selling well, attributed to organized publicity. Strieber continues to receive numerous calls and letters from people reporting abduction experiences.

Research Requests and Publications

Research Request

Earnest Still and Susan Pollock are conducting collective research into all Northamptonshire UFO cases and are seeking relevant material.

For Sale

A Commodore C16 computer with a Datasette and books is available for sale.

Sky Map Manual

Ronny Blomme has produced a 30-page 'Sky Map Manual' in English, which provides investigators with astronomical basics for identifying IFOs (Identified Flying Objects) and includes case histories. A computerized program and an ongoing sky map service are also offered.

Editorial Notes

Due to space constraints, the usual letters section and book reviews have been curtailed for this issue but will return in BUFORA Bulletin 29. Correspondence for the Bulletin should be addressed to the editor at 4 Ivy Road, Leyton, London, E17 8HX.

Conclusion

The concluding section emphasizes that even trained observers can misidentify astronomical objects. It advises UFO investigators to contact local astronomical societies for assistance in identifying celestial phenomena. The issue ends with an invitation for readers' responses to an article by Ian.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are the misidentification of natural phenomena and man-made objects as UFOs, the presentation of numerous witness accounts of unexplained aerial phenomena, and the exploration of scientific and hypothetical explanations for these sightings. The magazine also highlights the ongoing research into alleged alien abductions, particularly focusing on Whitley Strieber's experiences and the scientific investigation into his claims. The editorial stance appears to be one of open-minded investigation, encouraging research and the collection of data while acknowledging the possibility of misidentification and the need for scientific rigor. The publication actively solicits reader input and promotes resources for UFO research.

Title: BUFORA Bulletin
Issue: Number 28
Date: Undetermined (references to 1987 and 1988-89 lecture season)
Publisher: BUFORA (British UFO Research Association)
Country: UK
Language: English

This issue of the BUFORA Bulletin focuses on the development and implementation of a computer-assisted system for UFO case evaluation, alongside announcements regarding BUFORA's services.

The Computer as an Ace UFO Investigator

This article, written by Jenny Randles, Chairperson of the National Investigations Committee (NIC), introduces an experimental project by the NIC: the development of a system to offer computerised evaluations of UFO case reports. Randles highlights that approximately 90% of UFO reports have mundane explanations, and while human investigation remains fundamental, a computer system can assist by checking standard case input against factors consistent with known types of unidentified flying objects (UFOs) or identified flying objects (IFOs).

The system, codenamed ACE (Amstrad Computerised Evaluation), is being developed to utilize home microcomputers, such as the Amstrad 8256, which many UFO investigators possess. The goal is to provide a 'mechanical rating' of cases, allowing investigators to present a computer-generated assessment to witnesses, potentially stating the most likely explanation based on the data input.

Randles references Dr. Jacques Vallee's work in the BUFORA Book 'UFOs 1947 - 87', which describes the development of an 'expert system' in Silicon Valley. This system uses powerful computers to weed out cases at an early stage by framing questions over a 'UFO hotline' and feeding the answers directly into the computer for immediate analysis.

The ACE system, however, works differently. It relies on a piece of commercial software from Heptacon called 'Second Opinion,' a decision-making program originally designed for managers in employee selection. Randles explains that this software is ideally suited for modification for UFO evaluation purposes.

ACE operates on personal Amstrad computers (8256, 8512, 9512 configurations). While BUFORA has access to several such machines, copyright restrictions mean the system is initially intended as an adjunct to BUFORA NIC case reports. Accredited Investigators will soon be able to request an ACE report for their cases, provided the necessary information is included. BUFORA also plans to offer ACE reports as a service to other serious UFO investigators and international groups.

The programming of the ACE system follows logical investigatory rules and, once set, is not subject to human interference. It evaluates cases based on key distinguishing factors. For example, the duration of a sighting is crucial: a UFO reported as lasting only two seconds might be explained as a meteor, whereas an object seen for thirty minutes makes a meteor explanation impossible.

Key factors required for input include duration, color, shape, type of lighting, mode of flight, and the number of objects visible. The system then reviews these inputs against its stored IFO categories (anticipated to be around 20 types, from aircraft and helicopters to flocks of birds) and mechanically produces a printed set of ratings for appropriate IFOs in numerical form. It will indicate which IFO types are excluded by the data and rate the remaining ones by descending order of probability, reflecting the likelihood of a particular explanation being valid.

Randles emphasizes that ACE is not expected to be foolproof or provide definitive answers. The system's accuracy depends on the initial 'ratings' assigned to different factors, and the software is designed to be flexible, allowing these ratings to be updated. Constant modification during operation is anticipated, at least for the initial months or years.

Randles encourages UFO investigators to consider ACE and suggest improvements, noting that ACE evaluations will likely appear in UFO magazines, including this one, in the future.

BUFORA Services

BUFORA Postal Library

BUFORA has established a new postal library for its members, offering a wide range of UFO books, including many older 'classics.' Books are available upon payment of a returnable deposit (less postage costs). Interested members are directed to contact BUFORA (PL) at 16 Southway, Burgess Hill, Sussex, RH15 9ST.

BUFORA Correspondence Course

To complement its investigator training workshops, BUFORA is launching a correspondence course. This course will cover basic investigation techniques and procedures for members interested in active UFO research. Enquiries and constructive comments should be directed to BUFORA (cc) at 16 Southway, Burgess Hill, Sussex, RH15 9ST.

Diary

This section provides updates on BUFORA activities:

• 4th June: A BUFORA lecture titled 'The Reality of the UFO Phenomenon' was scheduled, with speaker Martin Shough at the LBS (London Business School).
• New Lecture Season: The new 1988-89 BUFORA lecture season was announced to commence on Saturday, September 3rd. Lecture programmes would be available soon.
• Lecture Venue and Time: BUFORA lectures are held on the first Saturday of each month at the London Business School, Sussex Place, Outer Circle, Regents Park, London, NW1. They start at 6:30 pm. The venue is a five-minute walk from Baker Street tube station.
• Publicity: Individuals wishing to publicise an event on this page free of charge were asked to write to the editor (Diary) at 4 Ivy Road, Leyton, London, E17 8HX, three months in advance.

Book Advertisement: UFOs 1947 - 1987

An advertisement promotes the book 'UFOs 1947 - 1987: The 40-Year Search for an Explanation.' This anthology, compiled for BUFORA by Hilary Evans and John Spencer, commemorates 40 years of worldwide investigation into unexplained aerial phenomena. It features commissioned articles, informed opinions on UFO sightings and reports, significant cases that defy explanation, and discussions on the origin of the UFO phenomenon. The book is available from BUFORA, 16 Southway, Burgess Hill, Sussex, RH15 9ST, for £12.50 including postage and packing, and is described as 'essential reading.'

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme throughout this issue is the professionalization and systematization of UFO investigation. BUFORA is actively exploring technological aids, like the ACE computer system, to enhance the efficiency and rigor of case analysis. The emphasis on training through correspondence courses and the provision of resources like the postal library further underscore BUFORA's commitment to supporting and advancing UFO research. The editorial stance appears to be one of proactive engagement with the phenomenon, seeking logical explanations while acknowledging the enduring mysteries, and aiming to provide valuable resources and knowledge to the UFO community.