JTAP - Vol 5 No 4 - Mar 1989 (Final Issue)

Magazine Overview

Title: The Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena
Issue Date: March 1989
Volume: 5, No. 4
Publisher: The British Unidentified Flying Object Research Association (BUFORA Ltd)
Description: This issue marks a significant transition for the publication, serving as the final edition of 'The Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena' (JTAP) in its current format. The editorial announces the decision by the BUFORA Council to merge the content and efforts of JTAP and the BUFORA Bulletin into a new, more 'up-market' single publication called 'UFO Times'. The new publication will aim to combine the best features of both previous journals.

Editorial

The editorial, written by Steve Gamble, Director of Research, reflects on the conclusion of his tenure as editor of JTAP. He expresses gratitude to the many supporters and regular contributors over the years. Specific mentions are made of the Editorial Board members, including Arnold West, Bob Digby, Robin Lindsey, and Richard Beet, as well as consultants John Shaw. The editorial also highlights the significant contributions of John Barrett for his work on production and editing, and regular contributors such as John Armitage, Paul Fuller, Ken Phillips, Roy Dutton, and Steuart Campbell. The editorial acknowledges the challenges of publishing a bi-annual journal, particularly when articles require splitting into multiple parts, and expresses optimism that the new bi-monthly magazine format will improve this situation. The editorial also thanks Anthony Pace and Charles Lockwood for their foundational work in establishing the project.

Key Articles and Features

An Analysis of Northamptonshire UFO Reports 1950-1988

This paper, authored by Ernest Still, presents a statistical analysis of 87 UFO reports from the county of Northamptonshire, spanning the years 1950 to 1988. The study aimed to identify patterns by examining various parameters.

Methodology:

The author collected data from newspaper articles, BUFORA files, and the Northamptonshire UFO Research Centre (NUFORC) files. The analysis focused on:

• Location: Identifying specific areas within Northamptonshire with a higher frequency of sightings.
• Sex of Witnesses: Examining the gender distribution of witnesses.
• Day of the Week: Determining if sightings occurred more frequently on certain days.
• Time of Day: Analyzing the distribution of reports throughout the day.
• Month of Year: Investigating seasonal patterns in sightings.
• Day of Month: Looking for patterns related to specific dates within a month.

Key Findings:

• Location: Certain locations within Northamptonshire showed a tendency to be 'haunted' by UFO reports more than others. The breakdown by area included Corby (25.0%), Kettering (21.7%), Northampton (13.3%), Wellingborough (10.0%), Daventry (8.3%), Higham Ferrers (6.7%), Rushden (6.7%), Desborough (5.0%), and Preston Capes (3.3%), based on 60 cases analyzed.
• Sex of Witnesses: The study noted 64 female witnesses (including one female child) and 59 male witnesses (including two male children).
• Day of the Week: Saturday emerged as the day with the highest number of reports (23.9% of 46 cases), followed by Sunday (19.6%) and Wednesday (17.4%). Thursday had a low number of reports (6.5%). This finding is compared to previous UK studies by Wootten and Randles, noting some similarities and differences.
• Time of Day: Sightings tended to cluster around specific times, with a significant number reported between 1700 hrs and 2300 hrs. A peak period was observed around 2100 hrs, with a smaller peak around 0600 hrs.
• Month of Year: The data indicated a significant peak in reports during the summer months, particularly July and August, with a sharp decline in winter.
• Day of Month: The analysis of the day of the month showed peaks around the 7th and 21st of the month.

Significance:

The author acknowledges that the number of cases (87) might be insufficient for definitive conclusions but suggests that the patterns observed warrant further study. The work of Peter Hill on the correct use of statistics and experimental design is also referenced as important for such research.

Other Content

• Advertisment Rates: Display rates for advertisements are provided, with a full page costing £45, half page £25, quarter page £15, and eighth page £8. Advertisements are noted as being black and white only.
• BUFORA Membership: Information is provided on how to enquire about membership in the British Unidentified Flying Object Research Association (BUFORA).

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

This issue reflects a transition in the publication's strategy, moving towards a consolidated and potentially more professional publication ('UFO Times'). The editorial stance emphasizes the importance of scientific study and rigorous methodology in UFO research, as highlighted by the statistical analysis presented in the main article and the past contributions of individuals like Peter Hill. The journal's history of promoting careful research and contributing to the field of ufology is acknowledged, with BUFORA being recognized as a world leader in the field. The overall tone is one of looking forward to future developments in UFO research and publications.

Title: Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena
Issue: March 1989
Date: 1989-03
Content: This issue of the journal delves into UFO sightings in Northamptonshire, reports on an international UFO congress, and presents findings from a survey on crop circles.

Northamptonshire UFO Reports 1950-1988

The issue begins with an analysis of UFO reports from Northamptonshire between 1950 and 1988, presented in a bar chart split by year. The data indicates peak reporting years in 1967 and 1978. The peak reporting hours are identified as Saturday nights around 9 p.m., followed by Sunday and Wednesday evenings between 1700 and 2300. The primary month for reports is October, with September and November also being significant. The author expresses a belief that another peak period might occur in October 1989. The analysis is based on data compiled by Steve Gamble, drawing from Wootten, Randles, and Hendry.

SOBEPS Congress – A Report

This section details the First European Congress on Anomalous Aerial Phenomena, held in Brussels, Belgium, from November 11th to 13th, 1988. Organized by SOBEPS (Societe Belge d'Etude des Phenomenes Spatiaux), the congress attracted over fifty delegates from various countries. Sessions covered in-depth case analysis, methodology, and computerised data handling in UFO research. Notable speakers included Auguste Meessen, Maurizio Verga, John Spencer, Edoardo Russo, Gian Paolo Grassino, Jean-Pierre Petit, Claude Mauge, Robert Digby, Ken Phillips, Michel Figuet, Paolo Toselli, Denys Breysse, Jacques Vallee, and Vladimir Rubstov. The congress also featured presentations on the 'Gulf Breeze, Florida Case' and a paper by Hilary Evans titled 'The Myth of Extraterrestrial Visitations'. A special study group on Abductions was planned for the upcoming Fifth London International UFO Congress.

The Mystery Circles – Status Report Part 3

This concluding part of an article by Paul Fuller discusses the results of a survey conducted among farmers in areas affected by crop circles. The survey, jointly funded by TORRO and BUFORA, aimed to address concerns about hoaxing and the lack of accurate data. The survey investigated the evolution of formation types, media reporting bias, farmer beliefs, and the potential causes of circles. It noted the emergence of more complex patterns like triplets and quintuplets from 1981 onwards, coinciding with increased media interest. The survey methodology involved a literature search and a random sample of cereal farms in Hampshire. The results indicated that approximately 1% of Hampshire's farms experienced circle formations annually. The article also explored farmer beliefs, with a majority agreeing with 'Hoaxing' and 'The Weather' as explanations, and fewer agreeing with 'U.F.O.s'.

I.C.U.R. Congress '89

Details are provided for the Fifth London International UFO Congress, scheduled for July 14th to 16th, 1989, at the London Business School. Organized by the International Committee for UFO Research (ICUR) with assistance from BUFORA and MUFON, the event will feature leading UFOlogists. A special study group on Abductions is a key feature. Preliminary speakers include Walter Andrus, Bertil Kuhlemann, Paul Fuller, and Cynthia Hind. Booking information and costs for attending the congress are also included.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the systematic study and analysis of UFO phenomena, including statistical breakdowns of sightings, reports from international conferences, and scientific investigations into specific phenomena like crop circles. The journal appears to maintain a neutral, analytical stance, presenting data and research findings from various sources to inform its readership about ongoing developments in the field of UFO research.

This issue of the Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena, dated March 1989, focuses heavily on the phenomenon of crop circles, exploring various aspects from their causes and reporting to the reliability of witness testimony in UFO cases. The publication features detailed survey data, research conclusions, and theoretical discussions.

Crop Circle Research

The issue presents findings from a survey investigating the causes of crop circles. Table Two indicates that a significant proportion of respondents believe hoaxing or meteorological phenomena are responsible, with UFOs gaining little credibility. The survey explored 17 alternative explanations for crop circles, with hoaxing gaining the most credibility among farmers experiencing the phenomenon on their land. Explanations ranged from helicopters and bird damage to ancient settlements and gravitational forces.

Reporting and Formation Types

It was found that only two out of eleven survey respondents who had discovered circle formations reported them to investigative agencies. The issue also discusses the apparent evolution of formation types, suggesting this may be due to media bias rather than a true characteristic of the phenomenon. Figure 3 and Figure 4 tabulate reported formations, with a significant percentage being unknown prior to the survey. The discovery of new formation types indicates that knowledge of the phenomenon is still incomplete.

Vortex Theory and its Strengths/Weaknesses

A substantial portion of the content is dedicated to Dr. Meaden's developing Vortex Theory as an explanation for crop circles. The theory is presented as successfully accounting for many distinctive characteristics of genuine formations, such as the lack of damage to the crop itself, the existence and positioning of outer rings and sheath effects, contra-rotation, well-defined spiral patterns, layering, and the clustering of circles around hillslopes. The theory also accounts for occasional luminous phenomena associated with vortex events and the international distribution of similar phenomena.

However, the theory's weaknesses are also discussed, including the sharply defined cut-off point and whether the descending vortex can remain stationary. Other weaknesses include the existence of formations with linear spurs, the complexity of the vortex model required to account for geometrically positioned outer satellites, and the lack of a well-defined mythology concerning the phenomenon. The article notes that while the theory has been published by the Royal Meteorological Society, its acceptance by other experts may take time, characteristic of novel phenomena.

Survey Conclusions

The survey concluded that there was no evidence that UFOs were creating the circles. Instead, the evidence supported the contention that either hoaxing or rare meteorological phenomena might be responsible. Key conclusions included that crop circles occur with greater frequency than previously thought, a small proportion receive publicity, farmers tend to support mundane explanations, and farmers experiencing circles did not rule out hoaxing as a likely explanation.

Witness Assessment Study

Another significant section of the issue focuses on the assessment of witness data in UFO reports, particularly in high strangeness cases like abductions. The paper by S.J. Gamble, R.S. Digby, and K. Phillips examines the reliability of witness testimony. It outlines a study where participants were shown a simple UFO event and asked to draw what they saw and estimate the duration. The study compared control groups (general public) with a 'UFOlogist' group.

Methodology and Results

The method involved collecting drawings and time estimates from four groups of the general public and one 'UFOlogist' group. Statistical analysis, including a Two Sample 't' test, revealed a highly significant difference between the UFOlogist and Control groups in their time estimates. The UFOlogist data was found to be more tightly grouped, with a normal range of 0 to 20.0 seconds, compared to the control groups' range of 0 to 48.8 seconds. This suggests a potential bias or difference in perception between those with a special interest in UFOs and the general public.

Examples of Drawings

The issue includes examples of 'UFO' drawings made by participants, illustrating the variety of interpretations and visual representations of UFO events.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

This issue strongly emphasizes empirical research and data analysis, particularly through surveys and statistical studies, to understand phenomena like crop circles and witness testimony. The editorial stance appears to favor rational, evidence-based explanations, giving significant weight to meteorological theories like the Vortex Theory for crop circles while critically examining the reliability of UFO witness accounts. There is an encouragement for further constructive debate on these intriguing subjects.

The Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena, March 1989 issue, features a significant article titled "Witness Assessment," which critically examines the reliability and variability of witness testimony in UFO reports. The issue also includes an editorial, an analysis of UFO reports from Northamptonshire, and reports on the SOBEPS and I.C.U.R. congresses, a status report on "The Mystery Circles," and a section on meetings and diary events.

Witness Assessment

The "Witness Assessment" article, presented across several pages, highlights the challenges in analyzing UFO phenomena due to the inherent variability in witness accounts. The authors present data from an experiment where subjects were shown the same slide, yet their time estimates varied dramatically, ranging from 1 second to 60 seconds across a group of over one hundred subjects. This variability is quantified and illustrated in "Figure One," which plots the number of observations versus time estimates for both a UFOlogists group (n=45) and a control group (n=58).

The control group exhibited greater variability than the UFOlogists. The article notes that the control group was split into male and female components, with distinct mean and standard deviation values for each, and when recombined, still showed the largest variation. This suggests that the variability is not simply due to small sample sizes when components are split.

Drawings and General Discussion

The article discusses the subject of UFO drawings from experimental settings, referencing extensive work by Digby. A selection of drawings is presented to illustrate the range of responses, emphasizing that witnesses observed the same original picture projected onto a screen. The authors stress that the position within the room is not a significant factor.

In the general discussion, the authors reiterate that all subjects viewed the same slide for the same duration. The primary quantifiable variation is in time estimates. Two areas of particular concern are identified:
1. Single Witness Cases: Especially abduction cases, where the only evidence is often the testimony of a single witness. The article questions the effectiveness of techniques like hypnotic regression in improving reliability for these cases, citing Campbell (12).
2. Data Accuracy in Databases: The authors express concern about the accuracy of data entering UFOlogical study databases. Using the principle of "Garbage In, Garbage Out," they argue that if the raw data is highly variable, it is impossible to expect meaningful patterns to emerge, or to place reliance on any patterns that do appear.

Conclusion

The "Witness Assessment" article concludes that a significant portion of the variety found in UFO reports may stem from the perception and interpretation of the witness, rather than necessarily indicating a greater variety of phenomena. However, this does not exclude the possibility of more than one causative agent for UFO events. The study of abduction phenomena is highlighted as an area of interest that generates much data but often relies on single-witness cases, making them particularly susceptible to individual variation.

Other Articles and Sections

• Editorial: Authored by Stephen Gamble.
• An Analysis of Northamptonshire UFO Reports 1950-1988: Authored by Ernest Still.
• SOBEPS Congress & I.C.U.R. Congress: Reports on these congresses.
• The Mystery Circles - A Status Report - Part 3: Authored by Paul Fuller.
• Assessment of Witness Data: Authored by S.J. Gamble, R.S. Digby, and K. Phillips. This appears to be the main article discussed above.
• Meetings Diary: This section provides information on upcoming events, including London Lectures and a Bradford Lecture. The London lectures are held at the London Business School and have specific fees for members and non-members. The Bradford lecture is jointly organized with the Independent UFO Network (IUN) and will take place at Bradford Central Library. Details of speakers and topics for these events are provided, such as "The Two American Conferences of 1988 and Comparison of the U.K. and U.S.A. Experience" by John Spencer and Bob Digby, and "Abductions" by Jenny Randles.

Acknowledgements and References

The authors of the "Witness Assessment" article thank Dr. Alexander Keul and Ken Phillips for designing the experiment. A comprehensive list of 13 references is provided, citing works on witness estimation, UFO reports, congress proceedings, and data analysis techniques.

Journal Aims and Scope

A separate section outlines the aims and scope of The Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena. It states that the journal aims to be a forum for scientists and researchers to present ideas, results, and analyses of UFO phenomena, promoting scientific rigor and an international perspective. It also provides detailed "Notes for Contributors" regarding manuscript submission, formatting, illustrations, and referencing style.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme throughout this issue, particularly in the "Witness Assessment" article, is the critical examination of UFO evidence and the challenges posed by human perception and memory. The journal appears to advocate for a rigorous, scientific approach to ufological research, emphasizing the need for accurate data and careful analysis. The editorial stance seems to be one of cautious inquiry, acknowledging the complexity of UFO phenomena while highlighting the limitations and potential biases in current research methods and data collection.