JTAP - Vol 5 No 2 - Mar 1988

Magazine Overview

The Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena, Volume 5, No. 2, published in March 1988 by the British Unidentified Flying Object Research Association (BUFORA Ltd), is devoted to the scientific study of unusual aerial phenomena. The issue features an editorial by Steve Gamble, Director of Research, and a paper by Dr. Alexander G. Keul and Ken Phillips.

Editorial: Many Steps Forward, The Death of the Single Case

Steve Gamble's editorial highlights two key methodological approaches for UFO research: statistical analysis and recursive examination of evidence. He argues that statistical analysis, by combining many similar observations, can minimize errors and provide a more accurate view than relying on individual case testimonies, citing a study where UFO duration estimates varied wildly among witnesses of the same event. The editorial also introduces the concept of recursive analysis, suggesting that re-evaluating and discussing cases can lead to a better understanding of the phenomena. Gamble emphasizes the need for constructive criticism and collaboration among researchers, warning against personal attacks.

Paper: The UFO - An Unidentified Form of Creativity?

This paper, presented by Ken Phillips, describes the work of Keul and Phillips in applying psychological testing to evaluate UFO witnesses. It builds upon previous work and includes results from control studies. The research employed three instruments: the ANAMNESIS interview scheme (covering personal data, life circumstances, social attitudes, medical history, ESP claims, religious convictions, and occult belief systems), the Rorschach inkblot test (a projective personality test), and the Eysenck Personality Inventory (E.P.I.) for objective personality assessment.

The study involved 15 'Close Encounter' reporters, 15 ESP reporters (mostly contacted via ASSAP), and 10 control subjects. Findings indicated that close encounter reporters showed a significantly higher tendency to recall dreams and to have dreams about UFOs or flying compared to the control group. The paper suggests a potential 'close encounter dissatisfaction cluster' related to unemployment, work-career dissatisfaction, and family/social/financial dissatisfaction.

Further analysis of the ANAMNESIS data revealed that for close encounter cases, ESP experiences sometimes started before, during, or after the UFO episode, indicating a complex relationship rather than a simple cause-and-effect. The study also noted that some individuals, termed 'fantasy-prone personalities' by other researchers, focus on UFO and ESP events. The research touched upon the possibility of 'UFO/ESP heredity' within families, particularly in the maternal line.

The paper also explored other ANAMNESIS questions, finding indications for anxiety and vegetative lability in both reporter groups compared to controls. A significant finding was the concentration of alleged ESP experiences in both close encounter and ESP reporter groups, with 93% in the ESP group reporting such experiences. The study suggests that these individuals may have a low threshold between dream and waking states and a congruence between their waking experiences and unconscious imagery.

References and Publications

The issue includes references to previous work, including a 1987 JTAP article by Gamble, Digby, and Phillips on time estimation of simulated UFO events, and correspondence by Paul Fuller regarding statistical methods in UFO research. Information on obtaining BUFORA publications and membership is also provided, along with display rates for advertisements.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are the critical evaluation of UFO evidence through rigorous scientific methods, particularly statistical analysis and psychological profiling. The editorial stance advocates for a move away from single-case analysis towards a more systematic, data-driven approach, emphasizing constructive criticism and collaborative research within the UFO community. The journal positions itself as a platform for scientific inquiry into unusual aerial phenomena.

Title: Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena
Issue Date: March 1988
Main Headline: Unidentified Creativity

This issue of the Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena presents a multi-faceted exploration into the psychology of individuals interested in UFOs and ESP, alongside a detailed investigation into the phenomenon of 'Mystery Circles'. The content is primarily research-oriented, featuring statistical analysis and reports from various studies.

Research on UFO and ESP Reporters

The article "Unidentified Creativity" examines the psychological characteristics of UFO and ESP reporters. It notes that UFO reporters tend to read more UFO books than ESP reporters. Reactions from family and community members to alleged UFO or ESP events were often negative, while positive and negative reactions were balanced. The study indicates that UFO events, more so than ESP events, tend to produce significant changes in life orientation. However, a definite belief system, whether occult or alternative, could not be detected in either reporter group compared to a control group.

Further analysis using the Rorschach test in Austria and Great Britain, involving over 100 participants, found that the results were almost disappointing, showing no significant differences in imaginary responses between reporter and control groups. The British control group even showed a higher percentage of imaginary responses.

An evaluation of the British Eysenck Personality Inventory (EPI) pilot study revealed that while there were no significant deviations in extroversion and neuroticism between alleged close observer groups and control groups, a majority of UFO and ESP observers produced high 'lie scale' values in their EPI responses. This suggests that many observers may have provided non-valid responses, possibly due to a refusal to cooperate or a lack of trust in the "objective" tests.

The study concludes that while some UFO/ESP reporters may exhibit a high percentage of dream recall, flying dreams, and a 'family cluster' of reports, they cannot be differentiated from ESP reporters except in specific areas like social dissatisfaction and flying dreams. The research highlights the difficulty in capturing central personality traits with simple paper-and-pencil tests and suggests a need to look beyond "objective" tests when understanding UFO and ESP reporters.

The Mystery Circles Phenomenon

"The Mystery Circles Status Report - Part 1" by Paul Fuller investigates the phenomenon of circular depressions appearing in cereal crops, often attributed in the popular press to extraterrestrial spacecraft. Paul Fuller, a leading researcher in this field, has conducted extensive surveys among cereal farmers.

BUFORA has made repeated attempts since 1981 to investigate these 'Mystery Circles', which appear overnight in mature arable crops, primarily in Southern England. The report criticizes the media for encouraging an association with UFOs, leading to wild speculation and a lack of rational approach. BUFORA's 1986 report, 'Mystery of the Circles', was launched to educate the media.

The paper details the primary characteristics of the phenomenon:

• Appearance: Formations nearly always appear overnight in mature arable crops, usually cereals, to allow the crop to be pliable enough to deform permanently.
• Uniqueness: At least eight different formations have been identified, and each formation appears to be unique in shape and size.
• Precision: Each part of the affected area is precisely defined, excluding helicopter downwash as a cause, as downwash creates an ill-defined depression.
• Pattern: Every formation exhibits a unique swirl pattern with the spiral centre usually displaced from the geometric centre. Radial measurements vary.
• Swirl Direction: The majority of formations display clockwise swirl patterns, with a small number being anti-clockwise or mixed.
• Symmetry: While appearing symmetrical from a distance, closer inspection reveals measurable differences between components.
• Extensions: Some formations have displayed linear extensions or 'spurs' on the outer ring.
• Crop Condition: The crop in the affected zones is undamaged by the causing agent; stems are bent sharply at a 90° angle close to the ground, and heads remain intact.
• No Suspicious Marks: No footprints or other suspicious marks are found immediately upon discovery, though walking along tramlines at night can leave marks.
• Layering: The affected crop is layered, with the topmost layer pointing in a different direction to the underlying crop, sometimes with a divergence angle nearing 160°.
• Location: Many formations appear close to the bases of steeply inclined hillsides, with notable sites including Westbury White Horse and Cheesefoot Head.
• Unreported Cases: The majority of formations go unreported by the media due to their isolated locations, making assessment difficult.

The research acknowledges assistance from various individuals and organizations, including Colin Andrews, Patrick Delgado, Terence Meaden, Buster Taylor, and BUFORA. The paper concludes by posing the question of whether UFOs are an unidentified form of creativity and expresses hope for future research into creativity, phantasy, and alleged ESP events related to UFO reporters.

Other Items

A.G.M. Report

The 1988 AGM of BUFORA Limited was held on March 5th, 1988, at the London Business School. Major Sir Patrick Wall accepted the post of President. Lionel Beer stepped down from Council but accepted the position of Vice-President. Ken Phillips and Robin Lindsey also stepped down. Phillip Mantle and Simon Rose were appointed to Council, and Arnold West and Stephen Gamble were re-elected. Andy Roberts and David Clarke were appointed as new Council members, with Andy working in West Yorkshire and David covering South Yorkshire.

Object in the Sky Still a Mystery

This short report from May 1st, 1957, details an unidentified object seen on RAF Radar System, which was investigated by Javelin fighter aircraft. The Air Ministry stated that normal investigation procedures were ongoing and that the object had not been identified. Major Patrick Wall was to ask the Air Ministry about the number of UFOs detected that year.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the psychological underpinnings of belief in the unexplained, particularly concerning UFOs and ESP, and the empirical investigation of anomalous phenomena like mystery circles. The journal adopts a research-focused stance, emphasizing data collection, statistical analysis, and critical evaluation of evidence, while also acknowledging the limitations of current methodologies and the role of media in shaping public perception. There is a clear effort to move beyond sensationalism and explore these phenomena through rigorous study, even if the results are sometimes unexpected or disappointing, as seen in the psychological testing of reporters. The editorial stance appears to be one of open inquiry, encouraging further research and a deeper understanding of these complex subjects.

Title: Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena
Issue: March 1988
Volume: 5
Publisher: JTAP
Country: United Kingdom
Language: English
ISSN: 0953-0700

This issue of the Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena (JTAP) features a significant portion dedicated to the phenomenon of "Mystery Circles," exploring various aspects from their appearance to the problem of hoaxing. It also includes a detailed account of the "Airship Mystery" in Northamptonshire and a substantial correspondence section debating UFO investigation methodologies and specific cases.

Mystery Circles: Hoaxes and Investigations

The article "Mystery Circles cont ...." addresses the ongoing debate surrounding the origin of these formations. It highlights that formations are not always perfectly circular but can be approximate ellipsoids. A significant focus is placed on "The Problem of Hoaxing," detailing two proven hoaxes:

• Westbury, Wiltshire (August 1983): Farmers Alan and Francis Sheppard were paid by the 'Daily Mirror' to create a quintuplet formation. This was a failed attempt to fool the 'Daily Express' into reporting a UFO landing. The hoax was later confessed, and Chris Hutchins, a former 'Daily Mirror' reporter, confirmed his involvement, describing it as a joke.
• Venthams Farm, Froxfield, Hampshire (September 1986): This is identified as a second proven hoax.

The article also discusses "Suspected or Claimed, But Not Proven Hoaxes," including:

• Alfriston, Sussex (July 1984): A quintuplet appeared at Cradle Hill, near Dennis Healey's home. BUFORA RIC Phillip Taylor noted the location's significance.
• Cheesefoot Head Number 2 (July 1986): A formation that drew scrutiny, with an enlargement of a 'Daily Telegraph' photograph revealing an "unexpectedly sharp 'kink'" in the outer ring, supporting the claim of a hoax.

Reporter John Dodds staged a demonstration of his ability to create a circle and ring, recorded by BBC. His scheme involved obtaining a copy of BUFORA's "Mystery of the Circles" and claiming to have created the 1986 formations. However, the demonstration was a failure, with an uneven circle, damaged crop, and no swirl pattern. Photographic proof was also questioned.

The article contrasts the time taken for hoaxes (e.g., 24 minutes for a quintuplet, 75 minutes for a circle and ring) with the overnight appearance of most formations, suggesting the difficulty of nocturnal hoaxes and the avoidance of crop damage.

Further arguments against hoaxing include:

• Attempts to replicate circles by individuals like Patrick Delgado fail to create flat, even circles with banded layered stems, always resulting in damaged crop and visible footprints.
• Known hoaxes are carried out in daylight, leaving marks, whereas natural formations appear overnight with no attendant damage.
• The creation of elliptical circles is not easily explained by hoaxing methods.
• Historical accounts of similar formations date back to the 1940s, questioning the motivation for long-term hoaxing.
• The global nature of reported formations (e.g., France, Australia, Canada) makes widespread hoaxing unlikely.

The author concludes that, apart from the two proven hoaxes, the majority of circle formations likely have an alternative, more plausible explanation.

Airship Mystery Solved!

This section, adapted from an article by Paul Edwards for the Northamptonshire UFO Research Centre Newsletter, details the "Airship Mystery" of August 2nd, 1987. Numerous reports of lights in the sky over Northamptonshire between 9 pm and 11 pm were received by newspapers like the Evening Telegraph. These reports described objects as grey, cylindrical, and moving slowly.

It was later confirmed that the vehicle seen was an airship from Airship Industries, based in Cardington, Bedfordshire. The airship had made extensive flights over the area that night, reportedly flying at 20,000 ft plus at a speed of about 35 knots. The airship's length is estimated at approximately 180 feet.

BUFORA AI Ernest Still and Northampton AI Susan Pollock were instrumental in collecting over 18 and 8 reports, respectively, contributing to the resolution of the mystery.

Correspondence

The "Correspondence" section features several letters and editorial notes, primarily focusing on a debate initiated by Steuart Campbell's article "The Todmorden UFO Report Explained."

The Todmorden UFO Report Explained (JTAP, September 1987):

• A letter from a correspondent (likely Robert Morrell, formerly of NUFOIS) criticizes Steuart Campbell's article, stating that Campbell is no longer an AI for BUFORA and has not been for some time. The correspondent questions why JTAP published Campbell's "totally false and disgracefully inept article." The suspension of Campbell from BUFORA is attributed to his refusal to sign a code of practice and his tendency to re-evaluate cases, suggesting witnesses have seen stars.
• Alan Godfrey, a witness in a case evaluated by Campbell, writes to refute Campbell's interpretation. Godfrey explains that his movements described under hypnosis were mundane, such as turning onto Ferney Lee Road. He criticizes Campbell for altering facts and misinterpreting evidence, particularly regarding the location and visibility of Venus. Godfrey argues that Campbell's theory collapses due to his failure to check basic facts.
• Jenny Randles writes to address Steuart Campbell's reply, defending her own investigative methods and those of others. She questions Campbell's use of "decametres" instead of Imperial units and his interpretation of hypnotic regression data. Randles asserts that no case or investigator should be immune from question.
• An "EDITORIAL NOTE" from JTAP addresses the publication of Steuart Campbell's article. It clarifies that the journal's guidelines allow for referee advice and revisions. The note states that Campbell's article was reviewed by three people and underwent minor revisions. JTAP also offered Jenny Randles or Harry Harris the opportunity to publish their comments alongside Campbell's paper, and later invited Alan Godfrey to share his account.
• A letter from Hilary Evans comments on the "Todmorden UFO Report Explained" article, noting typographical errors and suggesting that Campbell's hypothesis that Venus was the origin of the Godfrey incident is an "intelligent suggestion" but not proven. Evans advises caution with new theories, referencing Campbell's previous focus on ball lightning.

New Publication

"PHENOMENON," a popular work edited by John Spencer and Hilary Evans on behalf of BUFORA, is announced. Published on March 17th by Futura Publications, it features over thirty chapters on diverse topics including Ghost Rockets, Abductions, Earthlights, UFOs, and Investigating Photographs and Traces. The book includes contributions from notable authors in the field.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The issue consistently emphasizes critical analysis and rigorous investigation within the field of UFO research. The editorial stance, as expressed in the correspondence and notes, values evidence-based conclusions and transparency. There is a clear distinction made between genuine investigation and theoretical speculation or misrepresentation of facts. The journal encourages open debate and scrutiny of both phenomena and the methods used to study them, while also upholding standards for publication and discouraging unsubstantiated claims or personal attacks. The recurring theme is the importance of factual accuracy and methodical investigation in understanding aerial phenomena.

This issue of the Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena, dated March 1988, contains a variety of correspondence, reports, and announcements relevant to the field of UFO research. The journal aims to provide a platform for scientific investigation and analysis of UFO phenomena, incorporating an international forum for researchers.

Correspondence

The correspondence section features several letters from readers and researchers. Hilary Evans from London writes about the dismaying tendency for intelligent research to be marred by unjustified dogmatism, emphasizing the need for objective analysis.

Paul Fuller of Romsey, Hants, comments on the article "Time Estimation of Simulated UFO Events" by Gamble, Digby, & Phillips, published in JTAP Vol 5 No 1. Fuller agrees that UFOlogists can benefit from the application of quantitative standard procedures to demonstrate the unreliability of individual witness estimates. He notes that the removal of a single untrustworthy score significantly altered the statistical outcome of the experiment, moving from acceptance to rejection of the Null Hypothesis. Fuller also points out the tendency for subjects to round their estimates to values ending in '0' or '5', a characteristic exhibited by a high percentage of both UFOlogist and control groups, exceeding the expected 20%.

Fuller suggests further investigation should focus on the shape of the groups' estimates and the ratio of estimates to variations in the duration of simulated events. He also proposes comparing results from instant recall experiments with those where subjects record estimates after a delay, to better approximate investigative reality.

An "EDITORIAL NOTE" responds to Fuller's comments, acknowledging the shortcomings of the "Time Estimates" paper and confirming that extensions to the project, such as using longer delays between observation and reporting, are being considered. The note reiterates that the paper's main point was to highlight the variability in reporting the same event and the necessity of applying standard quantitative procedures for progress.

Roy Dutton from Poynton, Cheshire, addresses criticisms of his "Global Distribution" paper (JTAP September 1986). He defends his work, stating that the 2000-word limit of the competition necessitated editing out elaboration on his methods. Dutton responds to Manuel Borraz Aymerich and Steuart Campbell, accepting their concern about statistical validity but requesting independent statistical checks. He describes his sidereal study as a vital step in a protracted exploratory study that built a coherent case for the Extra-Terrestrial Hypothesis. Dutton argues that his approach, linking Close Encounter events, provides a justification lacking in other distribution studies. Regarding the inclusion of 'water events', he reasoned that alien craft might find water a convenient place to enter Earth's atmosphere. In response to being accused of peddling 'pseudo-science', Dutton asserts that while UFO data collections have inherent uncertainties, he has striven for scientific objectivity and personal detachment throughout his 20 years of study, maintaining that his process is legitimate inductive science.

Another "EDITORIAL NOTE" clarifies that Roy Dutton's paper was a summary limited to 2000 words due to the Cutty Sark competition. It states that BUFORA intends to obtain statistical help for his project. The note also mentions that correspondence from Steuart Campbell replying to Dutton's earlier correspondence has been held over and will appear in the next issue.

Report on Training Meeting

Steve Gamble reports on a training meeting held at the Brookside Community Centre, Northampton, on February 20th, 1988. The meeting, led by Ken Phillips (who was stepping down as training officer), focused on providing a basic introduction to field investigation, with an emphasis on the initial approach to witnesses. The session covered guidelines for filling in report forms, information for case files, additional sources of information, and dealing with special cases like photographs. The report thanks Ken Phillips for his work and wishes him well. It also thanks Susan & Cassie Pollock and Ernie and Mrs. Still for making the afternoon a success. The meeting was attended by eleven members from BUFORA and the Northampton UFO Research Centre.

Dates for Your Diary

This section provides information on upcoming BUFORA meetings in London, which are typically held at the London Business School and start at 18:30. Meetings usually end around 21:30 and include a short break, questions, and discussion. Publications are available for purchase. The fees for London lectures are £1 for members and £2.50 for non-members, with non-members admitted subject to space availability. BUFORA reserves the right to alter or cancel meetings and to refuse admission.

Upcoming lectures include Phillip Taylor speaking on "UFOs and Astronomy" on May 7th, and Martin Shough discussing "The Reality of the UFO Phenomenon" on June 4th. The 1988/89 lecture programme will start in September.

An International Congress is planned for the summer of 1989, following a successful congress in July 1987. The venue is expected to be in the London area, chosen for its accessibility. The congress is primarily sponsored by ICUR, with BUFORA and MUFON acting as co-sponsors. Details on speakers and themes are not yet available but will be published as they emerge.

Manfred Cassirer is arranging the year's programme on behalf of BUFORA. Suggestions for future events can be sent to the address provided. Membership cards and forms are available upon receipt of a stamped addressed envelope from BUFORA (Meetings), 16, Southway, Burgess Hill, West Sussex, RH15 9ST.

Aims and Scope of the Journal

This section outlines the purpose and editorial policy of the Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena. It states that UFO research has progressed from speculation to scientific analysis. The journal aims to be a forum for scientists and researchers to present ideas, results, and statistical analysis, offering an international platform for authoritative publications that further knowledge of the cosmos.

Notes for Contributors

Detailed guidelines are provided for authors wishing to submit manuscripts. Contributions are welcomed from around the world, preferably in English, and should be sent to the Editor-in-chief in Whittlesey, Peterborough. Manuscripts should be double-spaced on A4 paper with wide margins and submitted in duplicate. Authors are encouraged to write concisely. The author's name, affiliation, and address should follow the title, and an abstract of about 100 words should precede the main text. Mathematical symbols should be clear, and illustrations should be kept to a minimum, drawn in black ink on white paper. Photographs should be glossy prints. Tables should be suitable for direct reproduction, adhering to specific A4 dimensions. References should be quoted in the text and grouped numerically at the end, using a specific format. Dates should follow the astronomical convention (e.g., 1977 August 06), and times should use the 24-hour clock and Universal Time (UT).

The Editorial Board reserves the right to seek advice from referees, accept, revise, or reject manuscripts. If deemed unsuitable for Journal TAP, manuscripts may be forwarded to the Bufora Journal. Book reviews and letters are also considered. Authors are responsible for obtaining permission for any material included in their articles, and opinions expressed are those of the contributor, not necessarily reflecting the views of BUFORA or its council.

Contents

The table of contents lists the following articles and sections: Editorial, "The UFO - An Unidentified Form of Creativity?" by Stephen Gamble, Alexander Keul & Ken Phillips; AGM Report; "The Mystery Circles - Status Report - Part 1" by Paul Fuller; "Airship Mystery Solved!" by Paul Edwards; Correspondence; Report on Training Meeting by Steve Gamble; and Dates for Your Diary.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the methodology and reliability of UFO research. There is a strong emphasis on the need for rigorous statistical analysis and standardized procedures to overcome the inherent uncertainties and potential biases in witness testimony and data collection. The journal promotes an objective, scientific approach, encouraging international collaboration and the presentation of well-researched findings. The editorial stance supports critical examination of evidence and methodologies, while also providing a platform for diverse viewpoints within the UFO research community.