JTAP - Vol 4 No 3 - Sep 1986

Magazine Overview

Title: The Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena
Issue: Volume 4, No. 3
Date: September 1986
Publisher: The British Unidentified Flying Object Research Association Ltd. (BUFORA)
Country: United Kingdom
Language: English
ISSN: 0143-8840

Editorial: HOW DEEP SHOULD ONE DIG?

S.J. Gamble, Director of Research, opens the editorial by referencing a previous statement that the objective of JTAP is to encourage the application of scientific methodology to the study of UFO phenomena. He poses the question of how far this can go and whether there is a danger of over-investigation. Gamble reiterates the need to examine all possible theories of UFO origin and the application of all possible methods to this research. He outlines four groups of theories that should be subject to research and aims to give them equal space, alongside articles on useful techniques for investigation and research.

Gamble addresses the subject of witness-centered investigations, stating that a UFO case comprises three components: the report, the case, and the witness. He notes that while some suggest that too much time is spent investigating the witness, making the investigation too psychological, he argues that ignoring the witness means ignoring 50% of the available evidence. He cites J. Allen Hynek's view that some UFOs could be internally generated by the witness, leading to the term 'UFO reporters' rather than 'observers'.

He acknowledges that further research may prove that the majority of reports are generated by either psychological or physiological processes, or perhaps not. Therefore, ignoring the witness is akin to ignoring potential causes. Gamble also touches upon the possibility of UFOs being caused by ball lightning, a theory previously supported by Steuart Campbell, who is investigating the Livingston case of 1980.

Gamble emphasizes the importance of considering all possible theories and evaluating them against evidence, even if they are not one's preferred theory. He mentions that Steuart Campbell, the original investigator of the Livingston case, presents a new theory in this issue to explain it. Campbell examines the Extra-Terrestrial Hypothesis but dismisses it due to lack of evidence. He also considers ball lightning and experimental aircraft but finds them insufficient.

Gamble encourages constructive comment on new theories, stressing that simply stating a theory is liked or disliked is insufficient; a case must be made as to why it is wrong. He concludes by stating that the scientific method involves putting forward a theory with supporting evidence, and others then challenge it with their own experience and evidence.

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF REPORTED CLOSE ENCOUNTERS AND OTHER EXTRAORDINARY EVENTS (1868 - 1973)

This article, authored by T.R. Dutton, was originally entered for the Cutty Sark/New Scientist competition in 1979. Although not selected as the winner, it received high commendation. The paper presents a more precise and numerical analysis of UFO events, building on the author's lecture 'Probing the UFO Timetable'.

Introduction:
Dutton's work involves a twelve-year study of puzzling UFO incidents, initially focusing on UK events from 1967 and later expanding to include world events over 105 years (1868-1973). The prime objective is to determine if a scientific case can be constructed to support the popular belief that Earth is visited by extraterrestrials.

Selection and Preparation of Data:
Close encounters are defined according to J. Allen Hynek's categories (first, second, and third kinds). Reports were selected from references and the author's files. Many described extraordinary events involving controlled vehicles of unknown origin and encounters with intelligent biped creatures. Some unusual fireball events were also included, as they were sometimes linked to subsequent close encounters.

Latitude and longitude coordinates were established for each event, and UK event times were converted to GMT, with corrections for BST. It was not practicable to correct times for events outside the UK due to missing time standards.

Preliminary Studies:
Global studies began in 1973, using data from 1868 to 1954. An initial plot of all available latitude and longitude coordinates (150 cases) was unenlightening, as most events were concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere. By selecting 24 events involving entry into or departure from lakes or seas, Great Circle distribution arcs were approximated. These arcs were identified by their maximum latitude and longitude.

Dutton notes that space objects in Earth-orbital or atmospheric entry modes do not generate Great Circle arcs in geographical terms due to Earth's rotation. Instead, such arcs are traced on the Celestial sphere. He argues that planned incursions from space might be more easily recognized if referred to the star field, making event coordinates like latitude, solar time, and date more meaningful.

Distribution in Time:
To identify favored distributions relative to fixed stars, ten dates, equally spaced throughout the year, were chosen as focal points. A scatterband of plus or minus eighteen days was used. Another data source increased the number of timed reports from 83 to 368 and extended the historical period to 1971. For additional data from 1954 to 1971, the collection band was reduced to plus or minus nine days.

Solar Time Study:
Plotting latitude against time of day revealed Great Circle arcs, suggesting planned extraterrestrial activity. These arcs were substantiated by curve-matching techniques, with scatter of points within plus or minus twenty minutes of time or one degree of latitude. The results, summarized in Table 3, showed generally well-defined arcs.

The Sidereal Study:
This study investigated the possibility of common sidereal connections throughout the year. Solar times at maximum latitudes were plotted against the time of year. A line passing through these points approximated the time of transit of the First Point of Aries (zero Right Ascension). This assumption of linearity was considered acceptable for the 86-year period (1885-1971).

A line with the same slope could be drawn through the succession of event times shown in Table 3, spanning 80 percent of the year. Other strings of Table 3 times similarly linked smaller periods of the year. By trial and error, it was decided that the best fit set of parallel lines through the points divided the 24-hour timescale into equal divisions of 65.44 minutes. The meridian Right Ascension (R.A.) at maximum declination represented by each line was determined and compared with equivalent R.A. values from Table 3. The deviation in minutes of each observation from the best fit R.A. was calculated, with a high percentage of observations falling within 20 minutes of the nominal R.A.

Check on the Validity of Table 3:
Using additional UK data from independent sources, a compatibility study was conducted. Of 159 significant events occurring between 1952 and 1973, 77 fell within the ten 18-day periods considered. Of these, 68 (88 percent) were consistent with the global patterns described in the Solar time study. The remaining 82 events, reported in periods between the chosen ten, were generally consistent with the observed constant sidereal relationships.

Development Work in Hand:
Further checks on Tables 3 and 4 are being conducted using more recent data samples, with two computer studies underway.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme throughout this issue is the rigorous application of scientific methodology to the study of UFO phenomena. The editorial strongly advocates for examining all possible theories and data sources, including witness testimony, and for challenging existing ideas with evidence. The stance is one of open inquiry, encouraging constructive criticism and the pursuit of verifiable data. The article by T.R. Dutton exemplifies this by presenting a data-driven, statistical analysis of historical UFO events, aiming to move beyond anecdotal evidence towards a scientific case for extraterrestrial visitation. The journal positions itself as a platform for serious, scientific investigation into unusual aerial phenomena.

This issue of the Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena, dated September 1986, delves into various aspects of UFO research. It features an article on the global distribution of UFO events, an in-depth analysis of a specific incident with an astronomical hypothesis, and a detailed exploration of the use of computers in UFOlogy, particularly in Italy.

Global Distribution of UFO Events

The article "Global Distribution cont..." discusses the implications of geographical location and time of occurrence of UFO events. It explores the hypothesis that a minimum time interval of 65.44 minutes might be indicative of the orbital period of an artificial satellite. The analysis of ground traces for retrograde and progressive orbital satellites with specific inclinations has revealed correlations with geographical location trends from historical events. For instance, a trace with a maximum latitude of 54 degrees North and equatorial intercepts of 72 degrees East and 116 degrees West seems to link events in the Eastern seaboard of the USA with those in the North Atlantic, the British Isles, Austria, and Turkey. The authors suggest that these observations could support the idea of extraterrestrial agencies conducting surveillance of Earth and that the described procedures could aid in predicting and monitoring UFO events. The minimum orbital velocity required for such phenomena would be of the order of escape velocity, with a constant artificial acceleration towards Earth and the ability to change orbital planes.

Table Four, presented across pages 74 and 75, provides detailed data showing the maximum declination of each great circle versus meridian R.A. at maximum declination for various dates throughout the year (Jan. 10 to Dec. 3). This table likely supports the analysis of orbital tracks and geographical distribution mentioned in the article.

Livingston: A New Hypothesis

Steuart Campbell's article, "Livingston: A New Hypothesis," re-examines the UFO incident reported by Robert Taylor, a forester, on November 9, 1979, near Livingston, West Lothian. Taylor reported a close encounter with a large hovering object and two smaller mine-like objects that attached to his trousers, causing him to pass out. The trousers reportedly had tears, and there were marks on the ground.

Campbell proposes an alternative explanation to the extraterrestrial hypothesis, suggesting the incident was due to the sight of a mirage of the planet Venus, which, combined with other factors, may have induced an epileptic seizure in Taylor. He notes that Venus, at a magnitude of -3.7, was visible at a low altitude (3 degrees 13 minutes) on a bearing of 138 degrees, with Mercury in close conjunction at 139 degrees. The article discusses how bright stars and planets can be seen in daylight and how atmospheric distortions, particularly mirages caused by temperature inversions in valleys, can affect the appearance of celestial objects. The specific location of the incident, across a valley with potential for atmospheric inversions, is highlighted. The article references William Viezee's work on mirages from the Condon Report. Figure 1, a plan of the site, illustrates the direction of Venus at 1015 UT and marks the alleged position of the UFO.

Computers and UFOlogy in Italy

Maurizio Verga's article, "Computers and UFOlogy in Italy," details the growing use of computers by UFO researchers in Italy. The oldest application dates back to 1977 with a partial catalogue of sightings from the 1954 wave. The widespread adoption of microcomputers and personal computers has made UFO research more accessible. Currently, thirty-five to forty individuals in Italy own personal computers, with the Commodore 64 being the most common, followed by the Apple IIe and IIc.

Verga describes a project launched in 1985 to store Italian case reports on a Commodore 64 using a specialized database program. This project aimed to create provincial catalogues, with the goal of compiling approximately 3000 events by the end of 1986. A more sophisticated version of the database, using "Superbase," has been developed for both Commodore 64 and 128 computers. Verga himself has prepared computerised versions of his catalogues (ITACAT, ITACAT N, and TRACAT) for the Commodore 64, packaged as COMPITACAT, which includes database programs and graphics screens.

Other Italian researchers are also contributing. Marco Bottaini has developed a database for provincial case reports and is working on foreign bibliographical references. Sergio Bianchi created an E.D.A. Sighting Data Processing program for the Commodore 64 to help calculate UFO observation parameters. Paolo Toselli is developing a bibliography of UFOlogy literature using an Apple IIc.

A significant development is the Computer UFO Network (Rete UFOlodica Computerizzata - R.U.C.), launched in late 1985. This informal association aims to coordinate Italian UFOlogists with personal computers. Its key objectives include storing Italian case reports locally and composing articles for the ICUFOS magazine using computer technologies. The ICUFOS magazine itself is published using computer technologies, with plans to use an Apple Macintosh and a laser printer.

The "Computer UFO Newsletter," published since May 1985, is a special publication written entirely in English, focusing on computer applications in UFOlogy. It presents articles from international researchers, reviews software, and aims to establish a common standard for UFO data storage. The newsletter is published six times a year.

New Publications by BUFORA

The issue also lists two new publications available from BUFORA: "THE UFO WORLD '86," compiled by Jenny Randles, which highlights major UFO cases and research worldwide over the past year, and "MYSTERY OF THE CIRCLES," by Paul Fuller and Jenny Randles, a detailed report on BUFORA's study of phenomena reported over the last six years.

Notes and References

Several notes and references are provided, including information about I.C.U.F.O.S. (the Italian Center for UFO Studies), contacts for subscriptions to "The Computer UFO Newsletter," and details about Bulletin Boards. The references cite works by J.A. Hynek, P. Rodgerson, P.A.J. Wagg, R. Stanway & Pace, and William Viezee.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are the scientific investigation of UFO phenomena, the exploration of potential explanations beyond the extraterrestrial hypothesis (such as astronomical and meteorological factors), and the increasing role of technology, particularly computers, in UFO research and data management. The journal appears to adopt a rigorous, analytical approach, encouraging detailed research, data collection, and the consideration of diverse explanatory models. The editorial stance seems to favor open inquiry and the sharing of research findings among the UFO community.

This issue of the Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena (JTAP), dated September 1986, features a cover story titled "Livingston: A New Hypothesis" and a significant section on "Computers and UFOlogy Part Two." The magazine focuses on providing detailed analyses of UFO/UAP cases and exploring the integration of technology within the field.

Livingston: A New Hypothesis

The article "Livingston: A New Hypothesis" by Paul Fuller presents an alternative explanation for a reported UAP incident involving Robert Taylor near Livingston, Scotland, on November 9, 1979. The author suggests that the phenomena observed, including bright, enlarged, and hovering objects, were likely caused by a superior mirage of Venus, possibly enhanced by Raman brightening. This mirage could have appeared elevated and well-visible against the bright sky. The hypothesis posits that the shock of seeing this strange mirage triggered an epileptic seizure in Taylor. The article also addresses the ground markings and torn trousers reported by Taylor, suggesting they have innocent and unconnected explanations, such as the activity of an excavator used by the Regional Council for pipeline work or something lying in the grass.

The author meticulously examines the visual evidence, including a sketch of the object (Figure 4) and a photograph of the location (Figure 4). The sketch is interpreted as potentially being the top half of a mirage of Venus. The photograph shows the view Taylor had, with Deer Hill and the col where Venus might have been visible. The article also considers the possibility that other celestial objects, like Mercury or the star Antares, might have contributed to the visual distortions, explaining why Taylor might have perceived multiple objects.

Despite the complexity of the hypothesis, the author concludes that it offers a plausible explanation for the incident, attributing the ground marks and torn trousers to unrelated factors. The article includes a comprehensive list of references, citing previous JTAP articles and other UFO research publications.

Computers and UFOlogy Part Two

This section, authored by Paul Fuller, Research Officer for BUFORA (British UFO Research Association), details the findings of a survey on computer usage among BUFORA members. The survey, conducted through forms in previous JTAP and BUFORA Bulletin issues, aimed to assess the members' computer hardware, software, and willingness to contribute to UFO data management.

Survey Methodology and Findings

Paul Fuller, who holds a B.A. in Geography and Statistics and works for Hampshire County Council, explains that the survey was designed to extend previous preliminary results. He expresses gratitude to the members who responded, highlighting their interest in contributing to BUFORA's work. The survey involved 14 respondents, with 12 owning computers and two having access to other machines.

The types of computers owned by members include Sinclair Spectrum (5), BBC Model B (2), Commodore 64 (2), Apple IIe and II+ (1), Triumph Adler (1), and Amstrad CPC 464 (1). The total internal storage (RAM) among these machines is approximately 700 kbytes, with a significant portion attributed to the Spectrum Plus machines. The survey also collected data on operating systems, data storage methods (cassette tapes, floppy disks, micro-disks), and the presence of communication ports.

Technical Skills and Data Management

A key finding of the survey is the limited technical expertise among the respondents. Only four members (D, E, F & I) reported being technically qualified in computer use or statistical techniques. This highlights a significant challenge for BUFORA: the lack of members familiar with modern scientific methods and tools. The author expresses hope that such skills will be attracted to the association as it undertakes more research.

The survey also explored members' attempts to store UFO data on their computers. Seven respondents indicated they had statistical programs, and seven had attempted to store UFO data, ranging from BUFORA's own Case Report Database to the UFODOC catalogue. All but one respondent were willing to be involved in future UFO data recording.

Future Computing Policy for BUFORA

Fuller discusses the implications of the survey for BUFORA's future computing policy. He emphasizes the need to decide which tasks can be allocated to existing computer users, considering issues of machine incompatibility and data transfer. The article mentions the existing Spectrum computer and Masterfile database package for case reports. For the short term, BUFORA may need to restrict individual projects to individual users due to the cost and difficulty of teleprocessing data exchange across dispersed locations.

The author suggests that coding old case reports should continue on a basis that allows for a uniform, central, and accessible record system, which would benefit researchers for years to come. He also addresses the remaining respondents, noting that their involvement will depend on their commitment levels and BUFORA Council's priorities. Administrative tasks requiring minimal involvement are identified as a potential area for these members.

The ultimate goal of encouraging computer use within BUFORA is to minimize effort in administrative tasks and channel more resources into research activities. The article calls for a clear indication of BUFORA's short-term research objectives to keep enthusiasts engaged and prevent their enthusiasm from waning.

References and Acknowledgements

Both sections of the magazine include extensive reference lists, citing previous publications and sources relevant to the topics discussed. The "Computers and UFOlogy" section also includes a list of respondents who participated in the computer survey and acknowledges their contributions. A footnote from Steve Gamble expresses his thanks to the respondents and outlines his intention to publish a computing policy document in the March 1987 JTAP, emphasizing the role of computers in aiding research and administration, particularly through a computer case index.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

This issue of JTAP demonstrates a strong editorial stance favoring rational, evidence-based explanations for UAP phenomena, as exemplified by the "Livingston: A New Hypothesis" article. The magazine also shows a forward-looking approach by actively exploring and promoting the integration of modern technology, specifically computers, into UFO research. The detailed survey on computer usage highlights BUFORA's commitment to leveraging technological advancements for data management, analysis, and potentially more rigorous investigative work, while acknowledging the challenges related to technical expertise and resource allocation within the organization.

This issue of the Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena, dated September 1986, is primarily focused on news and activities related to BUFORA (British UFO Research Association). It includes updates on training initiatives, a schedule of upcoming lectures, correspondence on various UFOlogy-related topics, and a section on research into corn circles. The journal aims to provide a platform for scientific analysis and evaluation of UFO phenomena.

BUFORA News

Training Update Ken Phillips is organizing further training courses for investigators and interested parties. He is soliciting suggestions for training needs. A second training course is scheduled for Saturday, November 29th, 1986, from 1 pm to 6 pm at the University of Manchester. The theme is "Anamnesis: A longitudinal Study of the Paranormal," focusing on practical sessions involving witness interviews using both the anamnesis technique and conventional questionnaires. The session will also include a discussion on future training needs, covering topics, duration, location, and frequency.

BUFORA Lectures BUFORA meetings are typically held on the first Saturday of each month from September to June at the London Business School, Sussex Place, London, NW1. Meetings start at 18:30 and conclude around 21:30, with a short break. Admission is £1.00 for members and £2.50 for guests. The schedule for the current session includes:

• October 4th, 1986: Speaker Andy Collins.
• November 1st: Speaker Maurice Grosse, Title: "Enfield Poltereist."
• December 6th: AGM followed by Speaker Ananda Sirisaena, Title: "Buddhist Cosmology." (No fee for AGM, but charges for the lecture).

Lectures after January 1987 are provisional, with speakers and titles to be confirmed. These include Paul Deveraux on "Earthlights Update" (January 3rd, 1987), and a "Research Evening" on May 2nd, 1987, featuring short presentations from the Research department. A "Circles Review" is scheduled for June 6th, 1987, summarizing progress since BUFORA's report on corn circles.

Preliminary Notice The Eleventh Annual General Meeting of BUFORA Ltd will be held at the London Business School on Saturday, December 6th, 1986, at 6:30 pm. The agenda includes the President's Address, Chairman's Report, Council of Management's Report, election of Council members, and appointment of the Auditor.

Correspondence

Use of Computers by BUFORA Ltd (JTAP March 1986) James Danby of Preston writes in response to an article by Paul Fuller on "Computers and UFOlogy." Danby criticizes Fuller's assertion that low response rates to a questionnaire indicate members are "dim" or uninterested. He argues that Fuller's assumption about available storage (320kbytes) is incorrect, as unlimited storage is possible through diskettes or tapes. Danby suggests that while a centralized computer system for BUFORA could assist research, the cost of large amounts of online storage is a significant barrier. He believes that while computerization can generate extensive documentation, the core of UFO investigation still relies on human intellect. He also points out that membership records and publication production could be managed by a single, stand-alone computer, but bibliographic references might benefit from a centralized database accessible via modem.

Cornfield Circles

Jenny Randles and Paul Fuller have researched the appearance of circular depressions in cereal fields, publishing their findings in a booklet titled "Mystery of the Circles." Paul Fuller is seeking further reports of circles, particularly earlier ones and those from other countries, and can be contacted at 83, Alresford Road, Winchester, SO23 8JZ.

Aims and Scope of the Journal

The Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena (Journal TAP) aims to be a forum for scientists and researchers to present ideas, results of investigations, and analysis related to UFO phenomena. It emphasizes scientific rigor and an international scope, seeking to contribute to knowledge of the cosmos and benefit mankind. The journal encourages contributions preferably in English, typed double-spaced on A4 paper, with an abstract of around 100 words. Mathematical symbols should be clear, and illustrations should be kept to a minimum. Tables should be suitable for direct reproduction. References should be quoted in the text and grouped numerically at the end. Authors are responsible for obtaining necessary permissions, and opinions expressed are those of the contributors, not necessarily reflecting BUFORA's views.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

This issue highlights BUFORA's commitment to structured research and education within the UFO field, offering training courses and regular lectures. The correspondence section reveals ongoing debate about the role and practicality of computers in UFO research and organizational management, with a focus on cost versus benefit. The recurring theme of scientific rigor is evident in the journal's aims and scope, as well as in the critical approach taken in the correspondence. The editorial stance, as suggested by the journal's aims, is to promote a serious, analytical, and evidence-based approach to the study of UFO phenomena, while also acknowledging the speculative nature of some aspects of the field.