JTAP - Vol 1 No 1 - Jul Aug 1979

Magazine Overview

This issue of the Journal of Transient Aerial Phenomena, Volume 1, Number 1, dated July-August 1979, is published by The Research Department of the British UFO Research Association (BUFORA LTD.). It marks a new direction for BUFORA, aiming to replace every third issue of the regular BUFORA Journal with this more in-depth publication dedicated to research articles and case studies. The editorial emphasizes the need to improve the standards of UFO research in the UK and to present the phenomenon to the scientific community.

Contents and Key Articles

Clarification of Terminology (Charles Lockwood)

Lockwood argues for a less emotive terminology than 'UFO' (Unidentified Flying Object), suggesting a term that distinguishes between an unidentified object and an object from an alien civilization. He proposes focusing on 'autonomous behaviour' – behavior not explainable by known natural or man-made objects or current engineering techniques. The article outlines hypotheses for UFO sightings, ranging from misidentifications and hoaxes to natural events, mental projections, and advanced alien technologies.

UFO Research - A Scientific Approach (Peter A. Hill)

Hill criticizes the current state of UFO research, attributing its deficiencies to being largely a spare-time occupation without remuneration, leading to a lack of selection, training, cohesion, and common terminology. He stresses the need for UFO research to mature into a scientific discipline. The article highlights the importance of data collection as a precursor to analysis, the inadequacy of existing definitions, and the necessity of a standard definition for 'UFO report'. It also discusses the challenges of data analysis, the use of punched cards for data storage, and the need for international standards.

Effective Handling of Physical Data (Robert Digby & Steve Gamble)

This article details the creation of BUFORA's Physical Data Section, established to address the problems of voluntary bodies and inexperienced individuals investigating UFO events with alleged indirect physical evidence. It emphasizes the rarity and importance of such events, requiring professional attention. The authors describe the process of handling physical evidence cases, including photographic and trace cases, and note that to date, none have been incontrovertibly proven. They discuss the challenges of linking physical evidence to UFO occurrences and the potential for misinterpretation or natural explanations. The article also touches upon potential biological, chemical, and physical hazards associated with UFO event sites and the need for caution.

GEPAN (Summarised and translated by Charles Lockwood)

This section provides an overview of GEPAN (Groupe d'Études des Phénomènes Aérospatiaux Non-identifiés), the French government's official UFO research group established in 1977. It details GEPAN's structure, functions, and methods, including its seven groups: Rapid Intervention, Trace Sampling, Radar Warning, Evaluation, National Catalogue, Statistical Analysis, and 'Simovani' (a special optical instrument). GEPAN aims to study aerospace phenomena that experts cannot identify and encourages eyewitness reports. The article highlights GEPAN's multidisciplinary approach, its co-operation with various official bodies and private groups, and its classification system, which is based on Hynek's categories.

Editorial (Anthony Pace)

The editorial explains the rationale behind launching the new journal, addressing the long-standing requests from members for longer research articles. It emphasizes BUFORA's commitment to improving UFO research standards and presenting the phenomenon objectively. The editorial acknowledges that this first issue focuses on advice and guidelines for researchers, with case studies and statistical analyses to follow in subsequent issues. It expresses hope that this new venture will lead to a more scientific era of UFO research in Great Britain and thanks those involved in its creation.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around the urgent need to professionalize UFO research, moving it from a hobby to a scientific discipline. There is a strong emphasis on the importance of standardized terminology, definitions, and classification systems to facilitate rigorous data collection, analysis, and international comparison. The journal advocates for an objective, evidence-based approach, distinguishing between genuine anomalies and misidentifications or hoaxes. The editorial stance is one of promoting serious, scientific inquiry into the UFO phenomenon, aiming to gain credibility within the wider scientific community and to uncover the true nature of these events. The establishment of GEPAN in France is presented as a model for a more structured and government-supported approach to UAP research.

This document is a paper titled "UFO EVENTS IN PEMBROKESHIRE - 1977" by Anthony R. Pace, originally presented at BUFORA's Third National Research & Investigations Conference in Nottingham on April 16, 1978. It summarizes significant UFO reports from Pembrokeshire during the spring of 1977, highlighting their unprecedented intensity and significance in UK UFO research.

Introduction

The paper begins by referencing a 1967 investigation into UFO reports in the Stoke-on-Trent area and Staffordshire, which culminated in a peak of reports at the end of August and beginning of September. The author notes that 1967 was an unprecedented year for UFO reports in the UK, supporting the idea of an approximate 10-year periodicity for UFO waves, as proposed by Bernard Delair. Delair suggested the next 'type A' wave might occur in 1977 or 1978, potentially beginning around June 1977. The paper aims to determine if evidence supports this prediction.

BUFORA's local investigator, Randall Jones-Pugh, extensively covered events in Pembrokeshire from January to May 1977. The author, intrigued by the number of 'Close Encounter Cases of the Third Kind' and familiar with the county, visited the area in August and September 1977 to interview witnesses. Due to time constraints, the summary focuses on the more interesting cases.

The number of reports received for 1977 was approximately 450, with a peak in May. While most reports are eventually explained, this figure was higher than the 1967 wave, supporting the 10-year periodicity theory. Crucially, the significance of the 1977 reports was unparalleled, particularly in Pembrokeshire, which the author describes as having no equal in UK UFO research history.

Case Summaries

The paper details several specific UFO incidents in Pembrokeshire during 1977:

• 10.1.77: Several people in Clarbeston Road reported a bright silver object with a projecting arm.
• 3.2.77: School children at Herbranston School witnessed a cigar-shaped object flying over the school.
• 4.2.77: Approximately 15-20 schoolboys at Broadhaven School observed a disc-shaped object with a dome and orange-red light, some reporting a humanoid figure associated with it.
• 9.2.77: A young man at Pembroke Dock heard a buzzing noise and saw a 'plate or saucer-shaped' UFO with yellow-green lights and a silver body.
• 10.2.77: Two boys skateboarding in Haverfordwest observed a blue light that rose into the air, revealing an orange cigar-shaped bottom section.
• 17.2.77: A school teacher leaving Broadhaven School saw a large metallic oval object with a small dome and ridges.
• 11.3.77: A man at Llansteffan saw a luminous pale gold object, shaped like a weaver's shuttle, which suddenly switched off.
• 13.3.77: Stephen Taylor, near RAF Brawdy, saw a dark hemispherical object and encountered a 6-foot tall figure with large eyes and no hair.
• 17.3.77: Mrs. Pauline Coombs and her children saw an oval yellow light following their car near Ripperston Farm, causing the car's lights to fade and engine to lose power.
• 26.3.77: Mrs. Hewinson, a farmer's wife, saw a large silvered object with three ridges blocking her view of her greenhouse.
• Early April: Mrs. L. Bassett observed a bright blue flashing light near Ferryside, which caused radio static interference. Her dog also behaved strangely.
• 7.4.77 (Morning): Mr. Cyril John in Milford Haven observed an oval silvery object moving back and forth, with a humanoid figure in a silvery suit suspended in the air.
• 7.4.77 (Thursday Morning): A 17-year-old girl in Milford Haven saw a 'spaceship' hovering outside her window, with a small human-like figure with a long nose and curved features alighting on her window sill.
• 12.4.77: Young Mark Marston near RAF Brawdy saw a silvery-suited figure, estimated between 6 and 7 feet tall, leap over a gate. An orange-red glowing inverted saucer-shaped object was seen above the sewage farm.
• 19.4.77: Mrs. Rose Grenville at Haven Fort Hotel, Little Haven, heard a humming sound and observed a pulsating bluish flame in a field. Using binoculars, she saw an oval object with two tall human-like figures in white boiler suits.
• 22.4.77: The same Mrs. Coombs reported another event where a silvery suited figure with a black square 'visor' stood outside her window for over an hour. The farm dog also behaved oddly.
• 1.5.77: A man at Haverfordwest saw an object shaped like a weaver's shuttle disappear from sight.
• 15.5.77: Mrs. Coomb's twin daughters saw a 'funny man' in a silver suit with a square black face, who disappeared into a field. They then observed a 'plate' that ejected a 'dark red box' which flew off and disappeared. The girls later complained of rashes.
• 27.8.77: A lorry driver and his mate near Carmarthen saw two figures in the road, described as 7 feet tall, broad, dressed in bright red material, with featureless heads and human-like arms. They felt 'cold' as they passed.

Conclusions

The author notes several patterns emerging from these cases:

• Peak Sightings: The peak of sightings occurred in April, with 5 out of 9 humanoid reports happening between the 7th and 22nd of April 1977.
• Effects on Dogs: There were a number of reported effects on dogs.
• Characteristic Features: UFOs shared common features (e.g., Mrs. Morgan's and Mrs. Hewinson's cases; Herbanston, Llansteffan, and Haverfordwest UFOs had similar outlines). The Broadhaven school children's depiction of a domed-disc with doors was similar to the Coombs children's reports. The figures reported on 12th April, 22nd April, and 15th May provided distinctive correlations, particularly regarding the 'headgear' of the humanoids.

The author suggests that the variety of drawings, when reconciled, indicate that the same or similar entities were observed operating in the locality over an extended period, from at least April 12th to May 15th, 1977. He posits that applying techniques like Dr. Richard Haines' 'UFO Appearance Recognition & Identification Test Procedure' would reveal greater similarities between the reports, and that the 'picture' was not as confusing as the drawings and descriptions suggest.

References

The paper includes references to:

1. Roger H. Stanway, Chairman BUFORA (1971-1976).
2. "UFO Waves and their prediction" by Delair B., presented at a BUFORA Conference in Birmingham (5-7 November 1976).
3. Total number of reports received at July 1979 was approximately 600.
4. "UFO Appearance Recognition and Identification Procedure 1976" by Haines Richard F.

UFO RESEARCH, THE NEXT STEPS, AND LINES OF ATTACK IN OTHER COUNTRIES (Dr. J. P. Kuettner)

This section, presented by Dr. J. P. Kuettner, discusses the state of UFO research, particularly concerning its acceptance by the scientific community. He delivered this paper at the first BUFORA National Research and Investigations Conference in 1975.

Introduction to Dr. Kuettner

C. A. E. O'Brien introduces Dr. Kuettner, highlighting his background as a leading meteorologist and his past role as Chairman of the UFO Sub-Committee of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). The Sub-Committee's courageous resolution was to recommend that the engineering and scientific fraternities begin taking the UFO issue seriously, as it was scientifically viable. However, this was overshadowed by the release of the Condon Report.

Dr. Kuettner's Perspective

Dr. Kuettner describes his approach as "pessimistic" in the sense that the current critical and difficult situation of the UFO problem requires recognition to move forward. He distinguishes between being among UFO interested people and being part of the normal scientific community, emphasizing the need for sobriety.

AIAA UFO Sub-Committee

He explains that the AIAA is a professional society for aerospace scientists. The UFO Sub-Committee was formed by the Board of Directors to assess the situation, not to conduct scientific investigations, but to provide a best judgment.

The Condon Report and Committee Selection

Kuettner notes that their assessment report came out after the Condon Report and was followed by selected examples of high-credibility UFO encounters published in the Journal of Aeronautics and Astronautics. A mistake often made with controversial subjects is to avoid people already committed. The AIAA Sub-Committee deliberately selected members who knew nothing about UFOs – scientists and engineers from universities and aerospace industries – to ensure an unbiased attitude, though this also meant they might repeat mistakes made by experienced individuals.

The Scientific Community and Information Access

Kuettner identifies several groups involved in UFO research:

1. The Large Scientific and Engineering Community: Generally open-minded and interested, but largely ignorant about UFOs. They face a vicious circle: scientific journals often reject UFO papers, and information is difficult to access, often obtained third or fourth-hand, with no original reports available. Air Force files are a source, but interpretations are superficial.
2. The Small, Knowledgeable Group: People like Vallee, Hynek, Saunders, and Poher who work intensely on interpretation, having already convinced themselves it's a valid problem. However, they may forget that normal scientific progress requires institutional support and rigorous methodology.
3. The Bridging Group: People who are not actively working on the problem but try to bridge the gap, making efforts to interpret the situation and introduce the UFO issue into scientific literature. They are often sceptical and careful.
4. The "Lunatic Fringe": Those with fantastic ideas and no understanding of the scientific method, whom Kuettner ignores.

Data Collection and Statistical Assessment

Kuettner acknowledges the large group of people (like those in similar organizations) who collect data. He stresses the importance of continuing this effort, noting that about 50,000 cases have been stored, and even if only 5% are interesting, it represents a statistically valid sample. He advocates for a statistical solution to analyze existing material, believing that if observations are bad, they will be revealed by statistics.

Case Studies vs. Statistical Analysis

While case studies are interesting, Kuettner is wary because they can be time-consuming and the scientific analysis is often lacking. He believes the strangest cases, particularly 'landing' cases and those with occupants, have surprisingly high credibility. He estimates about 900 such cases worldwide, with about 20% being seriously considered.

The Vicious Circle of Funding

Kuettner explains the difficulty of obtaining public funding for UFO research. Scientific agencies would first ask if it's a valid scientific problem, which is hard to prove without prior research. Private foundations might fund it, but the question of its validity needs to be addressed first. This creates a vicious circle where public funds are unavailable without prior scientific validation, and scientific validation is difficult without public funds.

Statistical Studies and the S-P Diagram

Kuettner proposes that the way to solve the difficult situation is through statistical assessment of the stored data. This would address the primary question: is there a problem at all? He introduces the S-P Diagram (Strangeness vs. Probability of Event As Described) and the Reliability Factor used for Hynek's Diagram, which considers factors like witness reliability, investigation reliability, and the 'handedness' of the report.

Classification System (Hynek)

The paper includes Hynek's classification system: N (Nocturnal Light), D (Daylight Disc), R (Radar Visual), I (Close Encounter of the First Kind), II (Close Encounter of the Second Kind), and III (Close Encounter of the Third Kind).

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around detailed accounts of UFO sightings and encounters, primarily focusing on the Pembrokeshire events of 1977. The editorial stance, as presented by both Pace and Kuettner, is one of serious investigation and a call for greater scientific acceptance and rigorous analysis of UFO phenomena. There's a clear emphasis on the need for statistical validation and a structured approach to distinguish genuine anomalies from misidentifications or hoaxes. The document highlights the challenges in gaining scientific credibility and funding for UFO research, while also presenting compelling evidence from witness testimonies and the analysis of patterns in reported events.

This issue of TAP Journals, dated January 1979, focuses on advancing UFO research methodologies and exploring international efforts and potential explanations for sightings. The main articles discuss new lines of attack for UFO investigations, the role of atmospheric phenomena, and an upcoming international congress.

UFO Research, The Next Steps, And Lines Of Attack In Other Countries

The article begins by suggesting a shift in UFO research strategy, advocating for a focus on obtaining independent evidence for close encounter cases, especially in geographically smaller countries where such events might be more frequent. It emphasizes the importance of thoroughly exploring these cases to gather convincing, independent witness accounts and physical traces. The author expresses skepticism towards starting research with a pre-conceived hypothesis, advising instead for objective data collection and interpretation.

The text then touches upon international UFO studies, mentioning Dr. Hynek's Centre for UFO Studies, which receives numerous reports daily and struggles with the volume of data due to a lack of support. In France, Dr. Poher is noted for his statistical approach to UFO data, while in the US, Saunders has compiled a large database of cases, focusing on the demographics of reporters and favorable geographical conditions, though not delving into technical aspects.

Illustrations presented by Dr. Kuettner showcased statistical research from the U.S. and France. A key finding was that approximately 75-80% of UFO observations are explainable, with 5% being hoaxes, and about 15% having insufficient data. A critical 5% remain, and within that, only about 2% possess high strangeness and credibility ratings. Dr. Kuettner also presented a modified version of Hynek's Strangeness-Probability diagram, which indicated that as strangeness increases, credibility also tends to rise, a significant observation suggesting a potential pattern in high-strangeness reports.

UFO Studies in other countries

This section elaborates on the efforts of researchers like Dr. Poher in France, who uses statistical methods and computer databases, and Saunders in the US, who has amassed a large database of UFO cases. The author notes that much of this research is privately funded and relies on the dedication of individuals.

Illustrations

Dr. Kuettner presented slides illustrating research findings. One slide showed the percentage of explained versus unexplained UFO cases. Another compared French and foreign witness reports, highlighting a high proportion of trained observers like pilots. A third slide analyzed the time of day for UFO observations, suggesting they occur more frequently when fewer people are about, often observed by police in isolated areas. A study on UFO noise indicated that they are generally silent beyond one kilometer, with sounds like whistling heard at closer distances. Luminosity of UFOs was also discussed, with many cases reporting luminous objects even in daylight. Finally, a comparison of the duration of explained versus unexplained UFO events showed that UFO cases often have durations of five to ten minutes, which is longer than typical aircraft flights.

Dr. Kuettner's Contributions

Dr. Kuettner discussed the possibility of using the National Weather Service's radar network to monitor UFOs, noting that while 65% of the US is covered, analyzing the vast amount of data would be prohibitively expensive. He suggested a method of cross-referencing interesting observations with weather data for confirmation. He also presented statistical analyses of French and foreign UFO cases, noting their similarity and the high proportion of trained observers among witnesses. His work also included analyzing the time of day, noise emissions, luminosity, and duration of UFO events, concluding that UFOs appear most frequently in the early morning hours and often exhibit durations of five to ten minutes.

Atmospheric Phenomena Log

By John Armitage, this column aims to examine rarer atmospheric phenomena as potential explanations for UFO reports. The introduction acknowledges that many UFO reports can be explained by known phenomena, but also recognizes that insufficient data or knowledge of physical processes can lead to misinterpretations. The author maintains an open mind, emphasizing that any hypothesis must be supported by demonstrable evidence.

Mirages and Associated Phenomena

The article details two principal types of mirages: inferior and superior. An inferior mirage occurs when hot air near the ground causes light to refract and reflect internally, making the image appear below the object (e.g., a desert oasis). A superior mirage happens when light passes through a layer of cold, dense air overlain by warmer air, causing the image to appear above the object, potentially making distant objects seem closer or even visible above the horizon. A related phenomenon is "looming," where superior mirages can make objects appear much larger or closer than they are, acting like a magnifying lens.

A Recent Example

A notable example of a superior mirage with looming occurred in East Yorkshire on May 26, 1978. People in Bridlington observed Hull Docks (25 miles away) and Grimsby Docks (38 miles away) as magnified images in the sky. The detail observed, such as cranes working, made the locations clearly identifiable, suggesting a real magnification effect.

The relevance of mirages to UFO investigations is clear, as they can explain certain sightings. The column promises to discuss temperature inversions in the atmosphere in a future issue.

First London International UFO Congress

This section announces the First London International UFO Congress, scheduled for August 26-27, to be held at the Mount Royal Hotel. The congress theme is "International co-ordination and co-operation with a view to developing common standards." Key speakers include Dr. J Allen Hynek, Dr. R Leo Sprinkle, Vicente Juan Ballester-Olmos (discussing Spanish landing cases), and Eduardo Russo (on the 1978 UFO Wave in Italy). The event aims to bring together researchers to discuss terminology, classification, and data processing, with recommendations for international recognition. A special package deal with Grand Metropolitan Hotels and British Rail is offered to delegates, including accommodation, meals, and congress admission.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The issue consistently emphasizes a scientific and evidence-based approach to UFO research. There is a clear focus on distinguishing between explainable phenomena (like atmospheric effects) and genuinely unexplained cases. The importance of international cooperation and the development of standardized research methods are highlighted, particularly in the context of the upcoming London UFO Congress. The editorial stance appears to be one of cautious inquiry, advocating for rigorous data collection and analysis while remaining open to the possibility of truly anomalous phenomena. The reliance on dedicated individuals and private funding for much of this research is also a recurring theme.