Bay Area Skeptics Information Sheet - 1991 02

Magazine Overview

Title: BASIS
Issue: Vol. 10, No. 2
Date: February 1991
Publisher: Bay Area Skeptics
Editor: Yves Barbero

This issue of "BASIS," the newsletter of the Bay Area Skeptics, features several articles covering a range of skeptical inquiries, from the failure of psychic predictions to the science of water fluoridation and the psychology of cults.

Psychic Predictions Fizzle for 1990

By Robert Sheaffer, this lead article critically examines the numerous predictions made by various psychics for the year 1990, concluding that they were overwhelmingly inaccurate. The Bay Area Skeptics' method involves collecting these predictions and then, at the end of the year, evaluating their accuracy. The article highlights specific examples of failed predictions, such as Jackie Onassis marrying Jon Bon Jovi, a tidal wave flooding Manhattan, a meteorite landing in the White House Rose Garden, and a cure for the common cold. It notes that many predictions are vague, involve predictable events like hurricanes, or simply state that ongoing trends will continue. The author points out that claims of having made accurate predictions often surface after major news events, and the Skeptics only evaluate predictions that were widely known beforehand. Specific and surprising predictions that came true were notably absent. Examples include Jeane Dixon's prediction about George Bush's challenges, Beverly Jaegers' predictions about Jimmy Bakker and Madonna, Irene Hughes' predictions about Jacqueline Onassis and Bryant Gumbel, Marie Graciette's earthquake and meteorite predictions, and Clarisa Bernhardt's predictions about Barbra Streisand and Fidel Castro. Terrie Brill's prediction of a massive earthquake reshaping the California coastline in 1990 is also mentioned, along with her prediction about Manuel Noriega's fate. The article concludes by urging the public and the press to exercise skepticism towards psychic claims, especially given the failure to predict genuinely surprising news stories of 1990, such as the invasion of Kuwait.

The Bay Area Skeptics is described as a group dedicated to the critical examination of paranormal claims, with similar organizations existing across the country and internationally, such as the Committee for the Scientific Examination of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP).

Letters to the Editor

More on the Fluoridation Flap

By Thomas H. Jukes, Ph.D.

This letter addresses the coverage of John R. Lee and his views on fluoridation in previous issues of "BASIS." Jukes expresses concern that the newsletter gave significant space to Lee's "paranoid conspiracy theory" that water fluoridation is a "toxic waste product" of industry, colluding with medical and dental bureaucracies. Jukes, a proponent of fluoridation, argues that it is a vital public health measure that has prevented significant pain and discomfort from tooth decay. He refutes Lee's claims, stating that fluorine is an essential trace element and that at the recommended concentration of one part per million, it is safe and effective, citing studies and official recommendations.

By Rick Moen

Moen, Secretary of the Bay Area Skeptics, responds to the controversy surrounding the group hosting Dr. John R. Lee to discuss fluoridation. He defends the decision, stating that the primary criterion for inviting speakers is whether they will be interesting, and that the Skeptics' movement should consider claims fairly and impartially, rather than acting as "ideological cheerleaders of the science establishment." He emphasizes that the group has hosted various unconventional speakers in the past and believes in allowing people to judge for themselves.

Moen also addresses an editorial piece titled "Auerbach in Business" that appeared in the December 1990 "BASIS." He interprets it as a friendly jibe between friends and hopes it was not taken offensively. He mentions that parapsychologist Loyd Auerbach has been a friend and supporter of the Bay Area Skeptics.

There's the Cart; But Where Is the Horse?

By Bob Steiner

Steiner expresses surprise and embarrassment regarding the December 1990 "BASIS" editorial, "Auerbach in Business," which he states was a "considerable slam" at Loyd Auerbach and his new business. Steiner notes that the editorial was based on a "San Francisco Chronicle" article without any investigation or communication with Auerbach. He specifically criticizes a footnote that linked Auerbach's parapsychology degree from John F. Kennedy University to the Catholic Church's stance on the paranormal, calling it "uncalled for" and questioning the relevance of the Catholic Church to the Skeptics' scientific investigations.

Steiner defends Auerbach, stating that he has worked with BAS for years, is an avid supporter, and has donated his time. He asserts that the Bay Area Skeptics have a history of fairness and do not publicize results before they are established. He concludes that it is improper to "try him in the press" without taking a look at his business and communicating with him first.

"Auerbach in Business" Flap

By Loyd Auerbach

Auerbach responds to the December "BASIS" editorial about his business, expressing disappointment. He highlights his past lectures to the Bay Area Skeptics and his previous defense of the group as being skeptical rather than dogmatic. He clarifies that his organization, the Office of Paranormal Investigations (OPI), has been operating for over a year and that their work is not related to "New Age" mysticism. He explains that OPI does not have physical offices due to cost and that their investigations focus on finding normal explanations, with a typical case costing $50-$100. He emphasizes that OPI provides a thorough investigation and understanding of what is happening, but does not guarantee the removal of phenomena. Their primary obligation is to help clients and provide referrals. Auerbach states that OPI is not a "GHOSTBUSTERS"-like venture and hopes the editor will check facts before alienating someone who is not an "enemy of the Bay Area Skeptics."

More on Fluoridation Flap (2)

By Ernest Newbrun, D.M.D., Ph.D.

Newbrun, Professor of Oral Biology and Periodontology at the University of California, San Francisco, expresses amazement that the Bay Area Skeptics would platform John Lee's "paranoid conspiracy theory" about water fluoridation. He strongly advocates for fluoridation as a public health measure that prevents tooth decay, contrasting it with Lee's view of it as a "toxic waste product." Newbrun cites the Rand Corporation analysis of the National Preventive Dentistry Demonstration Program, which found children's teeth healthier and preventive measures less effective and more expensive than water fluoridation, underscoring its value.

Statement on Water Fluoridation

By Thomas H. Jukes, Ph.D.

Jukes reiterates the scientific consensus supporting water fluoridation as a major public health achievement, comparable to iodized salt or vitamin D in milk. He notes that fluoridation reduces dental caries by about 60 percent and is recommended by the World Health Organization and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. He points out the significant cost of untreated dental decay and the benefits of fluoridation for all age groups. Jukes addresses safety concerns, quoting Paracelsus on dosage and stating that at one part per million, fluoride is safe and well-documented. He also mentions that fluorine is a nutritionally essential trace element and that fluoridation has no adverse effect on mortality rates from various diseases. He concludes by recommending a review by Dr. Virginia L. Richmond on the topic.

What Cults Are Really Like -- With Margaret Thaler Singer

By Carol Baumgartner

This article summarizes a talk given by Margaret Thaler Singer, Ph.D., to the Bay Area Skeptics about cults. Singer describes the types of people susceptible to cult recruitment, including those who are mild-mannered, depressed, feel guilt or inadequacy, or are gullible. The process of cults involves recruitment, indoctrination, and total control through rewards and punishments, often using deceptive methods and exploiting guilt. Members are told they will learn "Secrets of Life" and that non-members are inferior. Cults often lead to broken relationships and isolation from support systems. The article mentions Robin Kliger's experience with the Shri Chinmoy Cult as an example of psychological paralysis and control.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

This issue of "BASIS" strongly emphasizes critical thinking and skepticism, particularly concerning paranormal claims and pseudoscientific assertions. The articles on psychic predictions and fluoridation highlight the importance of evidence-based reasoning and the dangers of unsubstantiated claims. The debate on fluoridation showcases the Bay Area Skeptics' commitment to providing a platform for scientific discourse, even on controversial topics, while defending established public health measures. The discussion around Loyd Auerbach's business reflects the organization's internal standards of fairness and due process. The article on cults underscores the Skeptics' interest in psychological manipulation and the critical examination of belief systems. The overall editorial stance is one of promoting rational inquiry, challenging unfounded beliefs, and defending scientific consensus, while maintaining an open-minded approach to diverse viewpoints within the framework of critical evaluation.

This document contains selected articles from the February 1991 issue of "BASIS", the monthly publication of the Bay Area Skeptics. The publication is presented as the "Bay Area Skeptic Informatoin Sheet."

Cults and Probability

The issue begins with a discussion on cults, noting that there are over 5,000 cults in the United States, encompassing religious, health-related, and UFO cults. Many are described as multi-million dollar organizations operating under tax-exempt non-profit 501-C-3 status. The text touches on the difficulty of breaking away from cult life due to psychological terrorism.

A section titled "STEINER PUZZLE FLAP" by Fred Convers addresses a probability puzzle, likely related to a previous issue's "Puzzle Number One" from November 1990. Convers suggests that Bob Steiner is demonstrating how easily people can be misled if they do not perform probability arithmetic. The article analyzes a two-child problem and a three-child problem, illustrating how the known sex of a child affects the probability of subsequent children's sexes. It also presents a table of probabilities that is described as "perhaps deliberately misleading," where on first glance, probabilities appear equal for each number.

Another probability-related question is posed: "Two girls and two boys are in a room. Two of them are mine, one a girl. What are the odds that both of mine are girls?" This is followed by a quote from Sydney Smith: "What would life be like without arithmetic but a scene of horrors?"

1991 European Skeptical Congress

An announcement for the "1991 European Skeptical Congress" in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, is included. The congress is scheduled for Friday, 4th, and Saturday, 5th October 1991. It is aimed at scientifically interested laymen, with presentation periods of about 35 minutes followed by 10 minutes of discussion. Potential speakers are invited to submit abstracts by April 15th, 1991, and full-length papers by October 1st, 1991. The papers are expected to deal with recent investigations or empirical data. Particular attention is requested for topics related to governmental and societal groups' policies on pseudoscience and the paranormal, including subtopics like policies in health, education, funding of paranormal research, and taxation policies related to pseudoscientific services.

"BAD CHEMICALS" Critique

A significant portion of the issue is dedicated to a critique by Wallace I. Sampson, M.D., Clinical Professor of Medicine at Stanford University, of a KQED program titled "Bad Chemicals." Dr. Sampson expresses strong disappointment, calling the program "just plain bad reporting," non-factual, and prejudiced. He argues that the program was duped into believing and supporting a phenomenon of "imagined wrongs, conversion reactions, fakery, misdiagnosis, and pseudoscience." Sampson refutes the program's claims about chemical sensitivities, stating that commercially used chemicals account for only two percent of cancers, while "natural" chemicals in food account for over 30 percent. He criticizes the portrayal of individuals with symptoms like headaches and nausea as victims of chemical sensitivities, suggesting personality disorders instead. The article also questions the claim that "sick building syndrome" costs one hundred billion dollars a year. Sampson criticizes the program for interviewing an entrepreneur selling products phased to the lunar cycle and for showing individuals who he believes are faking or experiencing delusions, not chemical effects. He specifically mentions a dentist whose symptoms were attributed to chemicals but who admitted to having a nervous breakdown at the time. The critique also notes that the program portrayed authorities like Drs. Terr and Brodsky unfairly, labeling them as "lackies of chemical companies" and uncaring. Sampson concludes that the symptoms discussed are often a reaction to depression and stressful situations, a phenomenon described by Freud, and that clinical ecology doctors who support these patients are reinforcing their delusions rather than helping them gain insight.

Stanford Course in Medical Frauds

Wallace Sampson, M.D., a founder and longtime advisor to BAY AREA SKEPTICS, has announced additional lectures for an annual course in medical fads. These lectures cover topics such as "The Cult Experience" by Margaret Thaler Singer, "Effects of Radiation and Electromagnetic Fields" by Leonard Sagan, M.D., "Holistic Medicine, Charlatan Therapy, Homeopathy" by Wallace Sampson, M.D., and "Effects of Herbicides and Pesticides" by J. Gordon Edwards, Ph.D. Other listed topics include "Mentalism, Magic, Psychic Surgery, Con Games," "Holism, Quantum Mechanics, and Extrasensory Perception," and a "Dead Week" optional lecture.

The Skeptic's Electronic Bulletin Board

Information is provided for "The Skeptic's Electronic Bulletin Board," including its phone number (415-648-8944), operating hours (24 hours, 7 days a week), and sysop (Rick Moen).

Prize for Best Answer

A humorous "Prize for Best Answer" question is posed: "How many psychics does it take to screw in a light bulb? (Blank pages don't count!)" A separate box is dedicated to the "skeptical astrologer" with "complete editorial freedom."

Food Fraud

The "FOOD FRAUD" section discusses deceptive food labeling and commercials that mislead consumers into believing certain foods are healthy when they are not, potentially leading to health issues like heart attacks, cancer, obesity, and diabetes. Ann del Tredici, a nutritionist and registered dietician, is mentioned as demonstrating how deceptive labeling "dopes" the public. The president-elect of the American Heart Association, Marin Chapter, is also noted for offering guidelines for safe and healthy food choices. The section encourages readers to learn how to read labels properly.

Calendar and Staff

The "CALENDAR" section announces a February meeting featuring a talk on "TRICKS AND DECEPTIONS OF FOOD LABELING" by Ann del Tredici, R.N., at the El Cerrito Library on Wednesday, February 20th, at 7:30 pm. Directions to the library are provided. Readers are urged to call a hotline for up-to-the-minute details on events and potential changes.

Lists of the "BAS BOARD OF DIRECTORS" and "BASIS" STAFF are provided, including names like Larry Loebig (Chair), Yves Barbero (Vice Chair, Editor), Rick Moen (Secretary, Circulation), and Kent Harker (Treasurer). The "BAS ADVISORS" list includes notable figures such as William J. Bennetta, Dean Edell, M.D., Donald Goldsmith, Ph.D., Earl Hautala, Alexander Jason, Thomas H. Jukes, Ph.D., John E. McCosker, Ph.D., Diane Moser, Richard J. Ofshe, Ph.D., Bernard Oliver, Ph.D., Kevin Padian, Ph.D., James Randi, Francis Rigney, M.D., Wallace I. Sampson, M.D., Eugenie C. Scott, Ph.D., Robert Sheaffer, Robert A. Steiner, Ray Spangenburg, and Jill C. Tarter, Ph.D.

Copyright and Reprints

The issue concludes with a copyright notice from 1991 by BAY AREA SKEPTICS, stating that "BASIS, newsletter of the Bay Area Skeptics" should be credited for reprints. Information on obtaining a free sample copy of "BASIS" is provided, including mailing addresses and BBS/hotline numbers.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are skepticism towards pseudoscientific claims, critical analysis of information (particularly in media and health-related topics), and the promotion of scientific literacy and critical thinking. The editorial stance is clearly in favor of evidence-based reasoning and against what it perceives as misinformation, fraud, and unsubstantiated claims in areas like medicine, psychology, and even probability. The critique of the "Bad Chemicals" program exemplifies this stance, as does the focus on food labeling and the debunking of medical fads. The publication actively promotes skeptical inquiry and provides resources for further engagement, such as the Skeptic's Electronic Bulletin Board and upcoming lectures and congresses.