Bay Area Skeptics Information Sheet - 1990 02

Magazine Overview

Title: BASIS
Issue: Vol. 9, No. 2
Date: February 1990
Publisher: Bay Area Skeptics
Editor: Kent Harker

This issue of the Bay Area Skeptics' newsletter, BASIS, features a lead article by Robert Sheaffer titled "Psychics' 1989 Predictions Fizzle," which critically evaluates the accuracy of predictions made by various psychics for the year 1989. The newsletter also includes a Treasurer's Report, a segment titled "Fraknoi on KGO" discussing creationism, a "Random Wisdom" section, a "Ramparts" feature on irrationality, and an "Editor's Corner" addressing skepticism and paranormal claims.

Psychics' 1989 Predictions Fizzle

Robert Sheaffer, past Chair of the Bay Area Skeptics (BAS), presents an annual review of psychic predictions, highlighting their consistent inaccuracy. He notes that psychics often rely on the public's short memory for their 'howlers.' BAS, however, keeps a record and tallies the scores. The article points out that while some predictions are vague and difficult to verify (e.g., Jeanne Dixon's prediction about Senator Edward Kennedy), others are demonstrably false.

• Examples of failed predictions for 1989 include:
• Northern Californians being told not to worry about a major earthquake, only to be struck by a magnitude 7.1 quake later in the year.
• Fidel Castro not dying in a savage hurricane.
• A UFO not crashing in a Kansas tornado.
• Ted Kennedy not marrying Donna Rice.
• Prince Charles not suffering a nervous breakdown.

Sheaffer criticizes the common practice of psychics issuing new predictions annually while conveniently forgetting their previous failures. He also notes that many 'predictions' are not truly predictive but rather disclosures of events already underway or easily guessable occurrences like hurricanes or marital strife.

• Specific psychics and their failed predictions mentioned include:
• Jeanne Dixon: Predicted Prince Albert of Monaco's engagement, his son's engagement, Egypt's government tottering, Eddie Murphy marrying, war breaking out in Korea, and a major earthquake in April. She also predicted hospitals would schedule surgeries based on moon phases. However, she predicted the Berlin Wall would fall not until the 21st Century.
• Jimmy Baker: Predicted to face a short jail sentence, though he received 45 years.
• Shawn Robbins: Predicted Fidel Castro's death in a Havana hurricane and Michael Jackson's involvement with Robin Givens, leading to Jackson being KO'd by Mike Tyson.
• Lou Wright: Predicted Prince Charles's nervous breakdown, Charles Manson's prison escape, and Barbara Walters negotiating a hostage release.
• Beverly Jaegers: Predicted a UFO crash in a Kansas tornado with aliens being taken into custody, and a major riot in Washington, DC.
• John Monti: Predicted Ted Kennedy would announce plans to marry Donna Rice and that televangelists Jim Bakker and Jimmy Swaggart would meet and get into a bloody fistfight.
• Terrie Brill: Reassured that there would not be a major 7-pointer earthquake destroying the Bay Area, despite predicting a 5.2 earthquake. The area was later struck by a 7.1 earthquake.

BAS concludes that not one prediction that was both specific and surprising came true. The newsletter urges skepticism towards paranormal claims, especially in light of the media's role in promoting them.

Fraknoi on KGO: Creationism vs. Evolution

This segment features an excerpt from a KGO radio program with Andy Fraknoi, director of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific, and host Jim Eason. The discussion centers on the concept of creation. Fraknoi clarifies that most astronomers are not uncomfortable with the idea of creation as a 'big bang' event that made the universe. The disagreement arises with narrow, fundamentalist views that insist on a literal, six-day creation in 4004 B.C., which contravenes scientific evidence.

Fraknoi explains that the scientific method focuses on material questions that can be tested, while acknowledging the validity of immaterial areas like love, devotion, and ethics. He argues that the creationist view, which posits life was placed on Earth one-by-one without evolution, contradicts centuries of scientific investigation. He emphasizes that the Bible is a work of morality and history, not a science textbook, and misinterpreting the 'seven days' as literal 24-hour periods is a disservice to both religion and science.

Treasurer's Report

BAS reported a prosperous year in 1989, with stronger subscription bases and contributions than ever before. The organization achieved relative financial security, allowing it to focus on its mission. The report details income from subscriptions and contributions, totaling $9,258.09, and expenses including bank fees, printing, postage, phone, and hall rental, totaling $5,582.22. The year-end balance was $3,675.87.

Ramparts

This section invites readers to submit examples of irrationality from their local scene. One example cited is a tidbit from the S.F. Chronicle about a Tahitian spiritual healer whose 'cure' involved walking on, beating, and jumping on a patient's stomach, highlighting that faith healers can indeed worsen a patient's condition.

The section also critiques the spectacle of televangelists like Oral, Jim Bakker, and Tammy Faye Bakker, noting the financial and credulity abuses associated with faith-healing cults. It mentions that Christian Scientists, who are criticized for not seeking medical help for their children, are facing scrutiny. A proposed bill (AB2325) that would have prohibited prosecution of parents whose children die from treatable illnesses and exempted faith healers from reporting child abuse cases did not pass.

Another item discusses financial advisor Alan Feinstein's "Operation Indigo" project, where participants paid $10 to look at the sky and repeat questions about communication and signs of existence, with the results to be shared among participants.

Random Wisdom

• This section presents a collection of intriguing or thought-provoking snippets:
• An ad for "MJ-12 & THE RIDDLE OF HANGAR 18," claiming suppressed CIA documents prove U.S. possession of UFO remains and alien beings.
• A quote from the Commerce Clearing House's "Federal Tax Guide 1990" defining 'property used in the trade or business.'
• A quote from Jacob Sullum in "Reason" magazine suggesting that in crises like earthquakes or hurricanes, people turn to government agencies like FEMA with belief.
• An excerpt from Ambrose Bierce's "The Devil's Dictionary" offering a cynical definition of 'Miss' and suggesting 'Mh.' as a title for unmarried men.
• A definition of 'Palmistry' as a method of obtaining money by false pretenses, involving reading character in hand wrinkles.

Editor's Corner

The Editor's Corner addresses the tendency of psychics and parapsychologists to explain away failures with excuses like conspiracy or new paradigms, noting that after over 100 years of study, no workable theory of 'psi' has been produced. The editor recounts a personal experience with an 'aura' experiment where the outcome was inconclusive, highlighting how subjective interpretations can confirm desired results.

The section also discusses the challenge posed by anti-intellectualism and the accusation that science is narrow-minded. It argues that science focuses on material questions that can be tested, while acknowledging the validity of immaterial aspects of life. The editor posits that psychic ideas arise from imagination and are promoted by those who lack critical thinking skills, emphasizing the importance of the scientific method for establishing cause-effect relationships.

Finally, the editor touches on the concept of supernatural causes, comparing ancient gods used to explain natural phenomena to modern-day psychics who act as 'dressed-up-in-modern, 5th-century shamans.'

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue of BASIS are skepticism towards paranormal claims, particularly psychic predictions and faith healing, and the promotion of critical thinking and the scientific method. The editorial stance is clearly one of advocating for rational inquiry and debunking pseudoscientific assertions. The newsletter consistently challenges extraordinary claims by examining evidence, highlighting logical fallacies, and exposing the lack of empirical support for phenomena like psychic abilities and faith healing. There is a strong emphasis on the importance of skepticism in discerning truth from falsehood, especially in areas often exploited by charlatans.

This issue of "BASIS", the monthly publication of the Bay Area Skeptics, dated February 1990, focuses on critical thinking, the examination of extraordinary claims, and the investigation of potentially fraudulent phenomena. The publication presents a skeptical viewpoint on various topics, emphasizing the importance of evidence and rational analysis.

The Nature of Skepticism

The lead article addresses common criticisms of skepticism, particularly the notion that it is inherently negative. The author argues that skepticism is a positive force, essential for seeking truth and combating error. By demanding evidence and questioning assumptions, skeptics aim to uncover reality, even if it is unpleasant. The article contrasts the scientific approach with emotional responses, citing an example of a radio preacher who equated belief in evolution with a descent into criminality. It asserts that moral attributes like kindness and honesty are independent of institutions and that skeptics are driven by a desire for truth, preferring harsh reality to comforting illusions. The piece also highlights the role of the Bay Area Skeptics (BAS) in combating fraud, citing their work in exposing the deceptive practices of faith healer Peter Popoff.

The author contends that it is not necessary to have a solution to a problem to point out that something is wrong, using fiscal irresponsibility in government as an example. The article concludes this section by stating that while the positive should be accentuated, the negative cannot be ignored, as error left unchecked can lead to widespread deception.

Same Old Shroud, Same Old Tricks: The Turin Shroud

This article, written by William Bennetta, critically examines the claims surrounding the Shroud of Turin. Bennetta revisits a shrine dedicated to the Shroud at Corpus Christi church in Port Chester, New York, created by Father Peter M. Rinaldi, a prominent promoter of the Shroud's authenticity. Rinaldi has vigorously promoted the belief that the Shroud is the burial cloth of Jesus, originating supernaturally and presenting pseudoscientific arguments in his booklets.

Bennetta recounts his visits to the shrine, noting that even after the 1988 radiocarbon dating which dated the Shroud to the 14th century A.D., the claims on the placards at the shrine remained unchanged. A new placard presented a "Questions and Answers" section that downplayed the significance of the carbon-14 test, suggesting it did not solve the "mystery" of the image. The article details the mysterious aspects of the image, including its photographic negative qualities and three-dimensional appearance, which proponents suggest could be the result of a miracle.

However, Bennetta, with input from expert Joe Nickell, debunks these claims. Nickell points out that Rinaldi's statements are typical of shroud devotees who pay lip service to science while promoting the miraculous. He refutes claims about the image being a perfect photographic negative or solely blood stains, citing research by Walter C. McCrone Associates that found artists' pigments like red ocher and vermilion. Nickell also questions the three-dimensional claims and the radiation-scorch hypothesis. The article concludes that the Shroud of Turin is a medieval fake, and attempts to create doubt about the radiocarbon dating are part of a strategy to maintain the "mystery."

Falsifiability Continued

Written by Earl Hautala, this section is a rebuttal to an "Editor's corner" from a previous issue of "BASIS." Hautala discusses the concept of falsifiability, referencing Einstein's views on mathematics and reality. He explains that while mathematics can be certain, it may not refer to reality, and vice versa. The article touches upon the challenges of deriving mathematics from logic and the importance of defining terms to establish a "universe of discourse." Hautala uses the example of "big Mafiosi" to illustrate how a proposition can be non-falsifiable if preliminary definitions are not agreed upon, leading him to err on the side of skepticism.

Satanism and Child Abuse

This section addresses the media coverage of Satanic murders and child abuse, suggesting that these sensationalized reports may serve a more sinister purpose, such as oppressing minorities. The article references historical accusations of ritual child sacrifice against Jews and draws a parallel to modern accusations against sexual minorities. It poses questions about the reality of Satanic cults, the possibility of a political agenda, or commercial exploitation behind these accusations. The piece invites readers to attend a talk by Jim Peron on this subject.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme throughout this issue is the promotion of critical thinking and skepticism as essential tools for discerning truth from falsehood. The publication consistently advocates for evidence-based reasoning and challenges claims that lack empirical support, whether they pertain to religious relics, pseudoscientific theories, or sensationalized social phenomena. The editorial stance is clearly one of rational inquiry, aiming to combat misinformation and protect the public from fraud and deception. The Bay Area Skeptics, through "BASIS," positions itself as a voice for reason in a world often swayed by emotion, wishful thinking, and unsubstantiated claims.