Bay Area Skeptics Information Sheet - 1988 08

Magazine Overview

This issue of "BASIS", the newsletter of the Bay Area Skeptics, dated August 1988 (Volume 7, No. 8), is edited by Kent Harker. It features a cover headline "BIG SOOTHSAYER BYTES APPLE" by Don Henvick, and delves into several topics related to skepticism, pseudoscience, and critical thinking.

Big Soothsayer Bytes Apple

Don Henvick recounts a demonstration by a self-proclaimed psychic at a lecture series for employees of a computer company. Henvick, familiar with the performer, notes that the "psychic" uses psychological suggestion and subtle body language rather than "cold reading." The performer, later revealed to be magician Bob Steiner, demonstrated techniques that appeared to be psychic abilities, such as predicting cuts in a newspaper or identifying a chosen card with a name on it. Henvick exposes these as "cheesy magic tricks" and "flim-flammery," emphasizing how easily the audience, even those with technical backgrounds, can be swayed by suggestion and a lack of proper controls. The event concluded with Steiner revealing himself and explaining his intent was to see if the employees were as gullible as others, which they proved to be. The article highlights the importance of critical thinking and proper controls when evaluating claims of the paranormal.

A disgruntled employee's post on AppleLink criticized Steiner's performance, calling it a "hoax" and magic tricks rather than psychic investigation. The employee felt Steiner misled the audience and failed to distinguish between magic and genuine psychic phenomena. Steiner responded, defending his performance by stating that magicians do not reveal their secrets and that his act was well-received by the majority of the audience, unlike the harmful effects of faith healers and fraudulent psychics. He argued that his performance was a necessary "shock" to alert people to the dangers of irrational belief.

The editor notes that Bob Steiner is becoming President of the Society of American Magicians and has joined the BAS board.

Pop Goes Psi

This section, referencing an article by Keay Davidson, discusses the current state of parapsychology, noting a decline in funding and prestige in the 1980s compared to the 1970s. Davidson attributes this to the failure of prestigious institutions and a lack of significant findings. Government and private grants have dried up, partly due to embarrassing Pentagon projects and a critical report from the National Research Council (NRC) concluding there is "no scientific justification" for parapsychological phenomena over 130 years of research. The article mentions the potential closure of the parapsychology lab at J. F. Kennedy University and the loss of a major grant for Charles Honorton's lab. Ray Hyman of CSICOP is identified as a key figure in the NRC summary and has faced attacks from the Parapsychological Association. Brendan O'Regan of the Institute of Noetic Science expresses that the field has been demoralized by CSICOP's activities and lack of funding.

A Worm in the Apple

This section continues the discussion about Bob Steiner's presentation at Apple Computer, noting that believers did not take kindly to the exposure of "psychic nonsense." It includes the diatribe from the disgruntled employee and Steiner's response, as detailed in the "Big Soothsayer Bytes Apple" section.

Editor's Corner

The editor addresses the response of skeptics to creationists, suggesting they have been "naive and shortsighted" by assuming creationists would disappear if ignored. The editor warns that this could be a "costly error" for science and pluralism. Creationists, while publicly advocating for "equal time" and "open mindedness," have different aims in private. The editor critiques Ken Ham's book "The Lie: Evolution," highlighting its use of cartoons and its assertion that evolution is the root of societal problems like "lawlessness, homosexuality, pornography, Nazism, racism, drugs, male chauvinism, war and abortion." Ham acknowledges that creationism is a belief system based on religion, not science. The editor counters Ham's argument that science requires direct testing, stating that all science is historical and indirect. The editor criticizes the false dichotomy used by creationists, who present issues as black and white and rely on the Bible as infallible truth. The editor points out that creationist "ministries" aim to destroy the foundation of evolution to collapse humanism and restore a religiously-based worldview. The editor urges readers to take the creationist threat seriously, emphasizing education and vigilance, and suggests contacting Eugenie Scott's organization for resources and guidance on confronting creationist attempts to influence public schools.

Psychics Don't Find Crash

Morris Huggins contributes a story about a missing plane case where a psychic provided information to National Park Service Ranger Paul Fedor. The psychic claimed two of the four passengers were alive and described their clothing. While a relative inadvertently verified some details, the search efforts based on the psychic's information were fruitless. The wreckage was eventually found about 100 miles from the psychic's described location. Officials confirmed that psychics have never provided critical information in finding a plane. The article warns that diverting resources to follow psychic leads can be dangerous, potentially costing lives. BASIS advocates for the registration of alleged psychics.

Round Two

This section revisits a debate from the June issue between Shawn Carlson and astrologer Pat Brown. Brown claimed to have conducted a "rigorous test" of her astrology forecasts with 44 people, stating it had not missed on any. Shawn Carlson countered that her test was poorly controlled and would not be published in a reputable scientific journal. Brown cited Dr. Harry Gorden of Dell Laboratories as a scientist who found her study accurate. However, upon contacting Dr. Gorden, it was revealed that he is a pharmacologist, not considered for a Nobel prize, and does not endorse Brown's "research." Gorden clarified that he had not evaluated astrology and was unaware of evidence for or against it, indicating Brown's claims were misleading.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

This issue strongly advocates for scientific literacy, critical thinking, and skepticism towards pseudoscientific claims. The Bay Area Skeptics, through its newsletter BASIS, actively debunks phenomena like psychic abilities and astrology, highlighting the lack of scientific evidence and the manipulative tactics often employed. The publication also takes a firm stance against the encroachment of creationism into science education, framing it as a religious agenda rather than a scientific debate. The editorial stance consistently promotes evidence-based reasoning and vigilance against the spread of irrational beliefs and misinformation.

This document contains selected articles from the August 1988 issue of "BASIS", the monthly publication of Bay Area Skeptics. The issue delves into various aspects of skepticism, particularly concerning paranormal claims and scientific methodology.

Article 1: Astrology and Scientific Validity

The first section discusses a review of experimental research into astrology. A scientist, Carlson, sent his "Nature" article and a complete review from the European journal "Experientia" to an unnamed individual. This individual stated that if proper double-blind controls were followed in Brown's project, the results "MAY be indicative of whether or not there was something to astrology." However, he also asserted that Brown's public claims constituted improper use of his name. BASIS attempted to contact Ms. Brown for comment, but received no return call after leaving three messages.

The article advises readers to "get the specifics and challenge them" when astrologers tout alleged scientific evidence for their pronouncements.

Article 2: March Meeting - ESP Experimentation

This section, written by Ivan Linderman, details a presentation by Mr. Peter Bishop, President of the Humanist community of San Jose, on the history of ESP experimentation.

Harry Houdini and Spiritualism

Mr. Bishop began with a history of ESP experimentation, highlighting Harry Houdini as an early spiritualist skeptic. Houdini, having performed spiritualist tricks in his youth, was familiar with their techniques. After his mother's death, he sought spiritualist aid to contact her but recognized the tricks used. Disappointed, Houdini authored several books exposing spiritualists, including "The Unmasking of Robert Houdin" (1908), "Miracle Mongers and Their Methods" (1920), and "A Magician among Spirits" (1924). He also collaborated with "Scientific American" to assess paranormal claims.

Prior to his death in 1926, Houdini agreed with his wife to attempt post-mortem communication. Ten years later, in 1936, Mrs. Houdini declared the experiment a failure due to a lack of communication.

J.B. Rhine and Early ESP Research

Despite Houdini's skepticism, J. B. Rhine initiated his ESP research in the 1930s. Mr. Bishop viewed Rhine's intentions as non-fraudulent, though acknowledging early issues with Zenner cards. By 1937, a year after Mrs. Houdini's failed experiment, Rhine began publishing the "Journal of Parapsychology." The journal initially invited skeptical criticism and emphasized the need for multiple replications to convince the public.

Experiments from the 1930s and 1940s were flawed but improved in the 1950s and 1960s. However, by the late 1960s, fraudulent results were discovered in Rhine's laboratory. Interest in the field was later revitalized in the 1970s by figures like Uri Geller.

The Ganzfeld PSI Experiments

Charles Honorton of the Psychophysical Research Laboratory at Princeton University developed the general protocol for the Ganzfeld PSI Experiments. The underlying assumption was that even if popular psychics were fraudulent, their methods could be studied and emulated non-fraudulently. The technique aimed to amplify minimal ESP effects through perceptual restriction, hypothesizing that ESP was linked to dreaming, hypnosis, and relaxation.

The general protocol for Ganzfeld experiments involves:
1. A Sender and Receiver attaining deep relaxation.
2. Separation of Sender and Receiver by a barrier.
3. Both having access to an identical pool of items (e.g., Zenner cards, photographs).
4. The Sender selecting an item and telepathically sending the image to the Receiver.
5. The Receiver selecting the corresponding item from their pool.
6. A "hit" is scored if the Receiver selects the same item as the Sender.
7. The hypothesis of ESP is confirmed if the proportion of hits is statistically significantly greater than chance.

Criticisms and Controversy

Between 1974 and 1981, 42 Ganzfeld PSI experiments were conducted, with many praised for good design against fraud. In 1978, Honorton claimed 55% of these experiments demonstrated ESP. Popular press and a NOVA program on PBS concluded ESP was likely proven.

In 1981, Dr. Ray Hyman was asked to assess PSI research and focused on Ganzfeld experiments. He collaborated with Honorton to gather data. Two articles and nine articles in the March 1986 "Journal of Parapsychology" were published, including a "Joint Communique: The PSI Ganzfeld Controversy" by Hyman and Honorton.

Hyman's initial 1985 paper outlined several criticisms:
1. Sensory Leakage: Incomplete separation between Sender and Receiver, though Honorton claimed this was resolved by providing separate item pools.
2. Feedback or Improper Randomization: Issues with returning items to the pool and randomizing them after selection, potentially increasing the chance of hits. Hyman found 28% of studies suffered from this.
3. File Drawer Problem: Uncertainty about which studies were included in Honorton's summary, with a suggestion that informal studies with positive results were published while negative ones were not. Hyman's analysis showed a lower replication rate (30%) compared to Honorton's (43-55%) when excluding informal studies.
4. Number of Trials: Studies showing positive ESP often had fewer trials. Seven studies with the most positive ESP had only 5-19 trials, with 5 of 7 being statistically significant. This lent credence to the File Drawer phenomenon.
5. Multiple Testing: Varied scoring techniques for hits, including negative ESP scoring and using judges for subjective assessments.
6. Statistical Errors: Primarily concerning the type of statistical test applied, with a correlation noted between statistical errors and purported ESP demonstrations.
7. Experimenter Effect: Two experimenters, including Honorton, accounted for most studies.
8. Inadequate Documentation: Studies were often abstracts, with formal papers and laboratory notebooks revealing further problems.

Hyman concluded that experimental error was being presented as proof of ESP.

In a 1986 joint communique, Honorton agreed with Hyman that Ganzfeld PSI experiments had not yet demonstrated ESP, though they differed on some issues. The final verdict remained open, with both acknowledging that past experiments deviated from ideal conditions and future ones needed to be more scrupulous. The interesting point was made that even if these experiments yielded no results, the lessons in experimental design would benefit science.

Discussion: Humanism and ESP

Following Mr. Bishop's presentation, the discussion focused on Humanism and ESP. The consensus was that convincing believers of skepticism was unlikely, as was convincing skeptics of ESP.

Upcoming Events and Publications

The article mentions that Gerald Straub, author of "Salvation for Sale: An Insider's View of Pat Robertson," will speak in the Bay Area on "Religion and Politics" with an update on Robertson's presidential campaign. Detailed information will be provided next month.

Editorial Stance and Contact Information

Opinions expressed in "BASIS" are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of BAS, its board, or advisors. The articles are selected from the August 1988 issue of "BASIS," the monthly publication of Bay Area Skeptics. Information on obtaining a free sample copy is provided, including mailing addresses and phone numbers for "The Skeptic's Board" BBS and a voice hotline. Copyright is held by BAY AREA SKEPTICS for 1988.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are the critical examination of paranormal claims, the importance of rigorous scientific methodology, and the role of skepticism in evaluating evidence. The publication "BASIS" and its publisher, Bay Area Skeptics, clearly advocate for a skeptical approach, emphasizing the need for empirical evidence and robust experimental design. The articles highlight the challenges in proving phenomena like ESP and the potential for error and bias in research. The editorial stance is one of critical inquiry and the promotion of scientific literacy.