Bay Area Skeptics Information Sheet - 1988 04

Magazine Overview

Title: BASIS
Issue: Vol. 7, No. 4
Date: April 1988
Publisher: Bay Area Skeptics
Editor: Kent Harker

This issue of the Bay Area Skeptics' newsletter, BASIS, features a critical examination of UFOlogy and related phenomena, with a strong emphasis on scientific skepticism and the unreliability of anecdotal evidence. The main article, "THEY DON'T GET NO RESPECT" by Kent Harker, challenges the scientific respectability sought by UFOlogy, particularly in light of the views presented by Dr. James Harder, a professor of engineering at UC Berkeley and a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

They Don't Get No Respect

Kent Harker begins by noting that UFOlogy has sought scientific respectability, sometimes by incorporating scientists into its ranks, such as Dr. James Harder. Harker sent Dr. Harder his article for rebuttal, but received no response. Harker acknowledges Dr. Harder as a respected member of the scientific establishment who views himself as being on the avant-garde, citing that new discoveries are often initially opposed.

Dr. Harder's key statement, "Observation always supersedes theory," is examined. Harker agrees with this principle as it applies to the scientific method, using the example of a hummingbird's flight contradicting a theory about wing-area-to-body-weight ratios. However, Harker argues that Dr. Harder makes unwarranted assumptions when applying this to the question of alien presence. Firstly, Harker contends that not all skeptics theorize that an alien presence cannot exist; many, like Robert Sheaffer, are open to persuasion if sufficient evidence is presented. Secondly, and more crucially, Harker finds it unreasonable that Dr. Harder assumes UFO observations are reliable. Harker emphasizes that "SCIENTIFIC observation requires rigorous standards and controlled conditions," which are typically absent in UFO reports.

Harker questions the credibility of human eyewitnesses, especially when highly emotional phenomena are involved. He uses the example of the canonization of Saint Charbel, where hundreds testified to the statue's arm raising, an event that contradicts molecular theory. He posits that if observations were reliable, such events would be accepted as miracles. However, Harker doubts the reliability of such observations, suggesting that even hypnotized witnesses would "remember" events, and that eyewitnesses can be honestly mistaken, as illustrated by a "60 Minutes" case where a man was convicted based on faulty eyewitness accounts.

The article further questions the admissibility of second-hand accounts or observations that might require significant changes to scientific models. Harker brings up the example of a reported UFO accelerating at 100 Gs without a sound, which violates Einsteinian physics and the expected sonic boom. He argues that when observations are made in less-than-controlled circumstances, the laws of parsimony suggest suspicion of the observation rather than overturning established scientific laws.

Harker criticizes Dr. Harder's reliance on typical eyewitness reports and hypnotic recall, suggesting Harder lacks expertise in the psychological and bio-psychological fields necessary to evaluate such evidence. He points out that the mind is not a perfect tape recorder, and recalling events, especially through hypnosis, can be inaccurate.

The article provides examples of documented cases where observations were known to be false: Venus being mistaken for a UFO, a fleet of UFOs over Brazil identified as a fireball meteor, night-flying advertising aircraft mistaken for UFOs, and weather balloons reported as enormous UFOs. A significant hoax at Cradle Hill, England, in 1970, is detailed, where a fake UFO was photographed and witnessed by about 30 observers, whose accounts corroborated the photographic evidence, despite the event being staged.

Harker also addresses the issue of hypnotically-recalled experiences of UFO abductees. He notes that hypnotic recall is generally inadmissible in court due to subjectivity and the potential for serious errors. He cites Robert A. Baker's article in "Skeptical Inquirer," which describes hypnosis as a situation where people engage in make-believe and fantasy, influenced by a sympathetic hypnotist.

Dr. Harder's counter-argument, citing a mother and daughter who detailed an abduction incident under hypnosis with no conscious memory, is discussed. Harker agrees with Michael Sorens' suggestion that readers should consider if UFO abduction is the only other possibility. The article concludes that UFOlogy has not advanced significantly since 1948, with J. Allen Hynek's prediction of scientific respectability remaining unrealized, and UFO information largely confined to supermarket tabloids and specialty groups.

References are provided for works by Robert Sheaffer and "Skeptical Inquirer."

Ramparts

This section encourages readers to submit examples of irrationality from their local scene.

There is faith and there is faith

This short piece recounts the story of Mrs. Stevens, who kept her deceased husband's corpse in their home for years, continuing to change his clothes and bedding, and telling friends he was sick. When the sheriff finally intervened, Carl Stevens was found to be a skeleton.

Math Prodigies?

Dr. Philip Rice sent an article about Ms. Devi, an Indian woman who performed prodigious mathematical feats, such as cubing 121 instantly and extracting the cube root of 12,812.904 as 23.4. The editor, a former mathematics instructor, finds the latter feat remarkable, especially the choice of a non-integral number with a rational root, suggesting it was a "plant" rather than a result of phenomenal ability. Mnemonics are proposed as the likely explanation. The editor contacted the Institute of Noetic Science (INS) about testing remote viewing and ESP, but received no interest.

Lucky Follow-Up

By Richard Cleverly, this article details the author's experience responding to a psychic's advertisement for "lucky numbers" for $1. He sent three letters and received a bulk-mail envelope filled with personal information but no numbers. The psychic, Madame Daudet, promised more numbers and a numerological horoscope for $35, plus a "miraculous Lourdes Medal" if he responded within 10 days. Cleverly also mentions receiving mail from other psychics and astrologers, including Norvell and Lynne Palmer, and expresses disillusionment with the scheme.

January Meeting

By Michael Sorens, this report covers the Bay Area Skeptics' January 26th meeting, featuring a presentation by Dr. James Harder. Dr. Harder, a professor of engineering and a skeptic, argued that UFOs do exist. He reminded the audience of past skeptics who doubted the Earth was round or that rocket travel to the Moon was possible. Dr. Harder stated he requires evidence to support a theory and compared his approach to that of astrologers, suggesting that testing the "cosmic twin" theory could provide evidence for astrology. He challenged that theory is useful, but observation and experiment take precedence. He cited the Trindade case, where approximately one hundred witnesses observed a UFO and photographs were taken, which eyewitnesses confirmed. Dr. Harder conceded it might be mass hysteria but questioned why it affected the film. He suggested that eyewitness reports constituted sufficient proof in this case, despite skepticism from others who argued extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

Another audience member presented his grandson Eric Tejeda's argument against alien visitation, calculating that it would take over 18,000 years for a visitor from the nearest star to reach Earth, posing insurmountable problems for a generation-ship.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are skepticism towards pseudoscientific claims, particularly in ufology and psychic phenomena, and the importance of rigorous scientific methodology. The editorial stance is clearly critical of anecdotal evidence, eyewitness testimony, and hypnotic recall when used as proof for extraordinary claims. The newsletter advocates for evidence-based reasoning and highlights the unreliability of subjective experiences and staged events. The "Ramparts" section encourages readers to actively identify and submit examples of irrationality, reinforcing the publication's commitment to promoting critical thinking.

This document is the April 1988 issue of the "Bay Area Skeptic Informatoin Sheet," a monthly publication by the Bay Area Skeptics. The issue features articles on UFOs, a critique of creationist arguments regarding thermodynamics, and a report on underwater archaeology and remote viewing.

Article: Professor Harder's UFO Conjecture

Professor Harder is presented as conjecturing that advanced alien technology could reach Earth and learn English. He proposed two reasons for aliens not revealing themselves: either benevolence, allowing human development, or malevolence, involving a secret plot for invasion. The article notes that audience members countered this by pointing out the high number of annual sightings, questioning the aliens' effectiveness at hiding.

As a case study, Professor Harder presented an account from a designer of the P51 fighter aircraft who claimed to have witnessed a UFO in broad daylight. The object reportedly accelerated rapidly, reaching speeds of 9,000 to 11,000 mph and disappearing into the clouds, all while being utterly silent. Astronomer Norm Sperling raised a physics objection, noting that such an event should produce a sonic boom. Dr. Harder responded by questioning whether Sperling's theory was superior to the observation. The article leaves the reader to consider the observer's potential limitations (no special instruments, traveling in a car) and the lack of a notebook.

Dr. Harder also presented other cases, with the author questioning whether Harder was arguing for or against extraterrestrial existence. The article raises the point that it is not unusual for two people, under hypnosis, to recall similar details about a UFO incident if they had not remembered them prior to hypnosis. The specific case mentioned involved a mother and daughter, and Harder's estimate of a 0.2% probability for this occurring by chance alone raised skepticism from magician Bob Steiner and others. The author notes Harder's apparent unconcern about the basis for this precise numerical figure.

The author concludes by commending Dr. Harder's eloquence and ability to foster discussion but challenges him to provide more rigorous evidence. The author emphasizes that science requires strong evidence to discard a theory and that a better theory or stronger evidence is needed to counter existing claims.

Article: Prayer, Positive Thinking, and Cancer Remission

This section, written by John Taube, recounts a KGO talk show segment hosted by Bill Wattenburg. A caller claimed to have cured herself of cancer through prayer, positive thinking, and a strong will to live, having been given only six months to live a year prior. Wattenburg cut her off, stating that her claim was demeaning to those who had died from cancer. He asserted that while a small percentage of cancer patients experience remission, there is no evidence that prayer, positive thinking, or laying-on-of-hands plays a role in this remission.

John Taube's commentary suggests that while a person diagnosed with a fatal disease should not be discouraged from finding comfort in prayer or other practices, these methods have no significant therapeutic value. However, he notes they may help the person feel better. Taube also warns that some practitioners cause harm by discouraging patients with serious, non-fatal diseases from following medical advice, sometimes turning non-fatal illnesses into fatal ones through faith-healing.

Article: Second Law vs. Creationism

Authored by Jim Ardini and Dick Kidd, this article addresses the creationist assertion that the Second Law of Thermodynamics precludes evolution and necessitates belief in special creation. The authors, both physics teachers, explain that creationists argue that since life forms are highly organized, they could not have arisen spontaneously without divine intervention, as this would violate the Second Law's principle that entropy (disorder) in an isolated system always increases or remains the same.

The article clarifies the distinction between isolated systems (where nothing, including energy or matter, can pass the boundary) and closed systems (where matter cannot pass, but energy can). It emphasizes that the Second Law applies specifically to isolated systems. The authors use the example of a refrigerator to illustrate entropy: while water freezing into ice decreases its entropy (becomes more organized), the battery powering the refrigerator and the air in the room increase in entropy, leading to an overall increase in the entropy of the isolated system (room + fridge + battery).

They argue that the Earth is not an isolated system because it receives energy from the sun. Therefore, local decreases in entropy, such as the evolution of living things, are not violations of the Second Law. The article references Stanley Miller's experiment in the 1950s, which produced complex organic molecules from simple precursors under conditions simulating early Earth, as evidence that challenges the creationist interpretation of entropy.

The authors mention that organic molecules have been detected in comets, meteorites, and dust clouds, citing these as examples of entropy decreases on a cosmic scale. They criticize creationists for attempting to alter or deny scientific principles that conflict with their interpretation of religious truth, drawing a parallel to Galileo's persecution. The article concludes by urging resistance against the imposition of "scientific creationism" into science education.

Article: Underwater Archaeology: Goodbye Columbus

This section announces that Marco Maniketti, an underwater archaeologist, will be the featured speaker at the April BAS meeting. In 1985, underwater archaeologists searching for the wreckage of Columbus's ships were approached by the Mobius Society, which claimed to use "remote sensing" and psychic abilities to locate the remains. The Mobius Society claimed a 75% success rate, despite never finding the wreckage. Maniketti witnessed this experiment and the attempts to explain the failures. His presentation will include photographic slides demonstrating how remote viewing supposedly works and why people believe in it. The article notes that remote viewing has been a significant aspect of psi research, pioneered by physicists Targ and Puthoff.

Editorial Stance and Publication Information

Opinions expressed in "BASIS" are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of BAS, its board, or its advisors. The articles are selected from the April 1988 issue of "BASIS," the monthly publication of Bay Area Skeptics. Information on how to obtain a free sample copy is provided, including a mailing address and contact details for a BBS and a voice hotline. The copyright is held by BAY AREA SKEPTICS for 1988.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are skepticism towards extraordinary claims, particularly concerning UFOs and paranormal phenomena, and a strong defense of scientific principles against pseudoscientific or religiously motivated arguments, such as creationism. The editorial stance is clearly pro-science and critical of claims lacking rigorous evidence or those that contradict established scientific laws. The publication actively promotes critical thinking and challenges unsubstantiated beliefs, as seen in its critique of both UFO claims and creationist interpretations of thermodynamics.