Bay Area Skeptics Information Sheet - 1988 02

Magazine Overview

This issue of "BASIS", the newsletter of the Bay Area Skeptics, dated February 1988, features a prominent article by Robert Sheaffer titled "1987 PSYCHIC PREDICTIONS". The newsletter is edited by Kent Harker and is Volume 7, Number 2.

1987 PSYCHIC PREDICTIONS

Robert Sheaffer's lead article critically analyzes the predictions made by various psychics for the year 1987. He notes that a common tactic of psychics is to rely on the public's poor memory, allowing them to avoid accountability for failed predictions. The article lists numerous specific predictions that did not come true, such as U.S. planes attacking Iran, babies for Caroline Kennedy Schlosberg, Princess Diana, and Princess Fergie, or assassination attempts against the Pope and Mikhail Gorbachev. Ted Kennedy's predicted marriage or remarriage and the Interstate 280 wash-out in San Jose are also cited as failed predictions.

Sheaffer points out that many psychic predictions are vague, making them difficult to verify. Examples include Jeane Dixon's prediction that Gorbachev would 'puzzle American policy makers' or that it would be a 'difficult year for Boy George.' Other predictions are so general they describe events that happen annually, like tornadoes in the Midwest or hurricanes in Florida, or ongoing issues like unrest in South Africa or fighting in Central America. Some are not predictions at all but merely disclosures of ongoing events like movie productions or business ventures.

While acknowledging that some non-specific or easily guessable predictions might come true, Sheaffer asserts that "not ONE prediction which was both specific AND surprising came true."

The article then details predictions from specific psychics:

• Jeane Dixon: Predicted a baby for Caroline Kennedy Schlosberg, a second marriage for Ted Kennedy, pregnancies for Lady Diana and Fergie, a stock market crash (though it boomed then crashed), kidnappings for ransom with a rescue mission leading to loss of life, a 'tragic' airspace confrontation with the Soviet Union, and a new super-fertilizer. She did correctly predict that Liz Taylor would not get married.
• Shawn Robbins: Predicted Prince Charles would bend spoons psychically on TV, that Monaco's Prince Albert would renounce his throne, and the discovery of the world's biggest oil field in Kentucky.
• Marie Graciette: Predicted Mikhail Gorbachev would be wounded in an assassination attempt by one of his own soldiers, and that the mayor of a large American city would undergo a sex-change operation and win re-election.
• Lou Wright: Predicted Ted and Joan Kennedy would remarry, and Burt Reynolds would fall for Vanna White, leading to a palimony suit from Loni Anderson.
• Irene Hughes: Predicted a massive U.S. military attack on Iran, killing the Ayatollah, and that Monaco's Princess Stephanie would be in a coma for months after a drug overdose.
• Sylvia Brown: Predicted Ronald Reagan would seek a third term (and be vetoed or voted out), a large earthquake around Mill Valley and Grass Valley, Interstate Highway 280 being washed away in San Jose (despite no rainfall), an assassination attempt on the Pope in London, and a breakthrough in Muscular Dystrophy treatment.

Sheaffer emphasizes that the burden of proof rests on the psychic to demonstrate their powers, and that unsupported claims should not be accepted simply because they sound interesting. He notes that genuinely surprising news stories of 1987, such as the Dow Jones's stratospheric rise and subsequent fall, Nancy Reagan's cancer surgery, the downing of a jetliner, and Gary Hart's withdrawal and re-entry into the presidential race, were not predicted by psychics.

BAS GOES ON-LINE

This section announces the launch of a new forum for interested parties: a computer bulletin board called "Child" in San Francisco, with Howard Burton as SysOp. Skeptics' Message Areas for articles and public discussion are provided, with Rick Moen and Yves Barbero as assistant SysOps. A note from March 24, 1989, indicates that "Child" BBS closed in summer 1988, but BAS opened its own BBS, "The Skeptic's Board", in October.

RAMPARTS

This regular feature encourages readers to submit examples of irrationality from their local scene. It discusses what happens when a psychic is revealed to be a cheat, noting that parapsychologists may not dismiss them, with one parapsychologist stating that mediums often cheat but that doesn't prove they aren't genuinely psychic.

The article then details the case of Doris Stokes, a popular medium in England, who Ian Wilson declared a fraud. Wilson attended her performances and interviewed audience members who claimed to have received messages from deceased relatives. One woman, Dawn, received a message from her dead husband, Graham, relayed by Stokes. However, Wilson later discovered that Dawn had contacted Stokes for advice about her husband's respirator *before* the performance, and Stokes had offered her a free seat. Wilson also found that all front-row seats were occupied by people previously contacted by Doris, yet she had reaped profits for years without significant investigation until Wilson looked into her methods.

Skeptic Frank Davidoff and "The Etherion Chronicles"

Skeptic Frank Davidoff subscribed to "The Etherion Chronicles," a publication detailing messages channeled from a soul named Etherion. An example of Etherion's predictions is given: when asked about the World Series, Etherion stated, "There would be some surprises in the play-offs." The article notes that this is a vague prediction, as "surprise" implies the unknown.

Psychic Mary Cannon and the Berkeley Psychic Institute

Mary Cannon of Oakland attended a spoon-bending seminar sponsored by the Berkeley Psychic Institute. Afterward, she forgot to 'turn down' her energies and her car wouldn't start. Her mechanic found the valves twisted in an unusual manner. She then remembered the seminar and was trying to psychically unbend the valves.

CHANNELING ST. MARY

This section reports on an interview with Rev. Mary Fulton of the Aesclepion Healing Center, who claims to have channeled the Virgin Mary. The channeled Mary discusses her experiences with her son and offers a message of "A calm, a joy, a peace, there's no hurry."

SKEPTICS ABOUND

The work of CSICOP is noted as reaching out widely, with a significant increase in skeptical articles about paranormal claims in the print medium. The article credits CSICOP with bolstering the courage of hundreds of people who have formed local groups like BAS. It also mentions receiving a news clipping from a Dutch newspaper about James Randi's debunking work. Dr. Eugenie Scott is congratulated for being nominated to the advisory board of CSICOP.

EDITOR'S CORNER

Editor Kent Harker discusses the correspondence he receives, noting that much is frivolous, some from cranks, and some from people who are serious but may not be familiar with scientific protocol. He suggests that BAS provides an address for such individuals to start their inquiries.

Spindrift and Prayer Healing

Harker details his correspondence with an organization called Spindrift, which emerged from Christian Science practitioners. Spindrift seeks to establish scientific evidence for the validity of healing prayer and aims to influence random generators to behave non-randomly through prayer. They have challenged skeptics to prove their claims are not due to prayer, shifting the burden of proof. Harker finds their approach to testing prayer healing unscientific, suggesting a simple test of praying over a compound fracture and then X-raying it. He describes Spindrift's claim as "nebulous" and a portrayal of pseudoscience, noting that parapsychologists have also claimed paranormal effects on random generators.

He also discusses complaints about James Randi, who is called a "professional deceiver" but an "honest deceiver" because he is upfront about his tricks. Randi is noted for gathering experts to assist in investigations.

Spindrift's claim is that "the laws of probability which govern falling dice... don't wholly apply but are affected by the mind of the individual throwing the dice." Harker counters that the laws of physics govern dice, not probability, and probability only suggests likelihood based on randomness. He questions the assumption that computer-generated data is "clean" and free from error or bias.

Harker proposes a testable claim for Spindrift: that a Christian Science prayer for 20 minutes will cause a random generator to become non-random with p<.001, and a Hindu prayer will return it to random within 5 seconds, to be run twenty times. He notes the difficulties in such a suggestion but emphasizes its specificity compared to Spindrift's vague statement.

'87 PREDICTIONS TRUE

This section briefly reviews the Berkeley Psychic Institute's own records of their "best efforts" from 1987 predictions, comparing them with BASIS's remarks. Examples include predictions about the economy (erratic with upward trend, gaining overall), gold and silver rising, major controversy in the Catholic Church (deemed accurate), Reagan's involvement with right-wing churches (close due to Bakkers and Contragate), and major earthquakes (occurred worldwide). Vague predictions about aboriginal groups reawakening and aliens becoming more active are also mentioned. The section humorously notes that some predictions made for 1986 came true in 1987, and suggests a prediction that "Shemp will be channeled by a world leader to give the play-by-play at Wimbledon."

HOW TO THINK: CRUCIAL LESSONS

This article by David Glidden, a philosophy professor at U.C. Riverside, was originally published in the "L.A. Times." It discusses why people with unusual claims don't submit them to the scientific community for review, often due to a lack of scientific understanding. BAS is presented as a starting point for such inquiries. The article uses Spindrift as an example of an organization that resembles 19th-century spiritualism and seeks scientific evidence for paranormal phenomena, but does so in a way that Harker characterizes as pseudoscience.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around skepticism towards paranormal claims, the critical examination of psychic predictions, and the exposure of pseudoscience. The Bay Area Skeptics, through "BASIS," actively promotes critical thinking and scientific inquiry. The editorial stance is clearly against accepting extraordinary claims without rigorous evidence, emphasizing the burden of proof on those making the claims. The newsletter highlights the importance of debunking irrationality and educating the public about the lack of scientific basis for many paranormal phenomena. There is also a focus on the growth of skeptical organizations and their efforts to counter misinformation.

This document contains selected articles from the February 1988 issue of "BASIS", the monthly publication of Bay Area Skeptics. The issue focuses on themes of skepticism, education, alleged miracles, and cult mind control.

Education and Ignorance

The lead articles delve into the state of higher education, referencing popular books like Alan Bloom's "The Closing of the American Mind" and E. D. Hirsch's "Cultural Literacy." The author argues that the core problem is not a lack of knowledge but the prevalence of deeply ingrained false beliefs. Citing Socrates, the text emphasizes that true learning involves questioning existing assumptions and exposing ignorance, rather than simply accumulating facts. The article criticizes educational approaches that focus on teaching students 'what to think' rather than 'how to think,' advocating for critical thinking skills that should be developed early in life. The author contrasts this with programs like "College Bowl," which promote the illusion that education is merely about memorizing facts, and criticizes the U.S. Secretary of Education, William Bennett, for potentially perpetuating this view.

Miracles, Miracles

This section reports on a Bay Area TV program where physicist Shawn Carlson appeared with three women discussing their alleged miracles. One woman, a nun, described her 18 journeys to Yugoslavia to witness conversations between six teenagers and the Virgin Mary, which began in 1981 as a 'flash of light.' The site has become a shrine, attracting millions. The nun reported thousands of pictures taken of miraculous occurrences, including a blurry oblong white flare attributed to the Virgin, which she claimed was only visible in developed photos and not to the naked eye. Shawn Carlson's potential explanations involving camera equipment and developing procedures were reportedly given limited airtime. Another woman claimed her rosary bead chains transmuted from silver to gold, a phenomenon she stated was common. When questioned about testing the gold, she became evasive. A third woman shared an experience of an angel appearing on her TV screen, which telepathically communicated with her and a group of people. The article also touches on a woman who claimed a novena to St. Jude cured her debilitating allergy. Shawn Carlson also briefly mentioned his 'weeping icon' and skepticism in general. The author expresses admiration for Carlson's calm demeanor in the face of these claims, suggesting the world may not be ready for sober confrontation with such beliefs.

Strategies and Techniques of Cult Mind Control

Richard Gallyot, described as a San Francisco cult-buster, is announced as the featured speaker for the February BAS meeting. With twenty years of experience investigating cults, Gallyot has interviewed Jonestown survivors, covered the Larry Layton trial, and received correspondence from Charles Manson. His presentation aims to educate attendees on recognizing cult come-ons and tricks to immunize themselves against mind control. The talk will include portions of a rare 1976 People's Temple video tape featuring Jim Jones performing 'miracles.'

Editorial Stance and Publication Information

The issue concludes with a disclaimer stating that opinions expressed in "BASIS" are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of BAS, its board, or its advisors. Information on how to obtain a free sample copy of "BASIS" is provided, including mailing addresses and contact details for "The Skeptic's Board" BBS and a voice hotline. Copyright is held by BAY AREA SKEPTICS for 1988.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are skepticism towards extraordinary claims, a critical examination of educational priorities, and an emphasis on critical thinking and the dispelling of false beliefs. The editorial stance is clearly that of promoting rational inquiry and challenging pseudoscientific or unsubstantiated claims, particularly those related to paranormal phenomena, religious apparitions, and cult activities. The publication aims to educate its readers to be discerning and to question what is presented as fact.