Bay Area Skeptics Information Sheet - 1988 01

Magazine Overview

This issue of "BASIS", the newsletter of the Bay Area Skeptics, published in January 1988, features several articles examining claims of the paranormal and pseudoscientific phenomena through a skeptical lens. The editor is Kent Harker.

PSY-COP by Laura Hagar

This article introduces Shawn Carlson, a PhD candidate in particle physics at UC Berkeley and a prominent member of the Bay Area Skeptics. Carlson is presented as someone who attempts to duplicate supposedly miraculous phenomena to understand them scientifically. His current project involves replicating "crying icons" – paintings or statues that appear to weep human tears or blood. Carlson learned about this phenomenon from a Russian Orthodox seminarian and, initially considering it a miracle, decided to investigate. He claims it took him only ten minutes to figure out how to duplicate the effect, using a rough model. He was prompted to pursue this after hearing a television report about a supposed religious miracle in Chicago, where a weeping picture of the Virgin Mary drew hundreds of thousands of people. Carlson's goal was to demonstrate that such icons might not be miracles and could have rational explanations. He is attempting to patent his method for creating the "Mona Lisa" icon, which he made to cry, and envisions commercial applications, such as "tacky living room paintings" of weeping figures.

Carlson clarifies that the Bay Area Skeptics are not cynics but are open-minded individuals who require strong, hard evidence for claims, not just anecdotal accounts. He believes people often believe in paranormal phenomena due to unexplained personal experiences and a lack of training in skeptical inquiry. He notes that humans are often poor observers and tend to "mis-remember" facts or see things that align with their existing worldview. Carlson emphasizes that his work is not intended to insult religious faith but to show that apparent miracles can have rational explanations, and that investigating such claims is the only way to determine their reality. He notes the Orthodox Church's view that questioning a miracle is blasphemous.

Carlson, though not religious, is knowledgeable about the Bible for argumentative purposes. He is described as slender, blond, and pale, with an ascetic appearance and eyes that burn with fervor for reason. He views science as a powerful, inevitable force. Despite his love for reason, he has always been drawn to the supernatural and mysterious, having experimented with the occult in his youth. He also studied stage magic from age twelve and worked as a street magician, a skill he still practices.

Carlson's "Mona Lisa" experiment is not his first foray into skeptical inquiry. In 1985, he conducted an experimental test of astrology, the results of which were published in "Nature" and concluded that astrology does not work. This experiment began as a dare from a professor who claimed astrology couldn't be tested. Carlson found this absurd, given astrology's specific claims. After publishing his findings, he faced libel from astrological publications, which accused him of lying and altering data. He feels the core issue is consumer advocacy, arguing that astrologers cannot provide the services they charge for, despite people making significant life decisions based on their advice. He states, "They can't do it. Stay away from them."

Carlson expresses sorrow rather than disdain for those who believe in astrology, faith healers, or trance channelers, seeing them as sincere but misguided individuals seeking truth. He hopes his efforts will encourage the public to be more critical of paranormal claims and to be aware of fraud, especially concerning public health. He advocates for a day when people will not fall prey to superstition, New Age fads, and charlatanism.

SOMETHING'S FISHY by Ronnie Hastings, Ph.D.

This article, originally from the "North Texas Skeptic", addresses the creation/evolution debate and the efforts of "scientific creationists" to establish creationism by finding flaws in evolutionary theory. The author notes that creationists lack evidence for their own claims and instead use evidence against evolution to support their notions.

The article focuses on Reverend Carl Baugh, known for his "Glen Rose Man" claims. Baugh submitted a "human" tooth, found in Cretaceous deposits in Texas, for identification in July 1987. While this action was seen as unusually scientific for Baugh, the identification by paleontologist Wann Langston, Jr. suggested the tooth was likely a worn-down incisor of a pycnodont, a Mesozoic bony fish related to modern gars and bowfins. These fish remains are found in the lower Cretaceous deposits of central Texas, compatible with the known ecology of the time when dinosaurs roamed. The article draws a parallel to the debunked "Nebraska Man" tooth, which turned out to be a pig's tooth, suggesting "Glen Rose Man" will similarly be identified as a fish's tooth. Baugh also allegedly had other fossil samples from the same layer, but did not leave them for identification.

THE GELLER DEFECT

This section discusses Uri Geller, a psychic known for spoon bending and metal-related phenomena. Geller formed a mineral exploration group, Uri Geller Associates (UGA), in London, comprising engineers and geologists. The article quotes a professional journal, "International Mining", which describes Geller's "amazing" powers. Geller reportedly used his hands to sense magnetic sensations over a map of Africa, identifying specific locations where minerals were subsequently found. This led to a $2 million contract with a Japanese corporation over six years, for which Geller claims to have found coal and potentially gold. He describes his method as "map dowsing" and using close-range sensations. Geller also advised a company not to mine in a particular area, claiming they would waste money, and they allegedly lost $50 million when they ignored his advice. The article notes that such claims are difficult to verify.

Uri Geller's UGA also includes an amateur dowser and a managing director from "Hunter Personnel" in the UK. The article mentions Charles Panati's "The Geller Papers" as a reference, calling it "preposterous."

HELP?

Michael Sorens is seeking skeptics to participate in a panel at the Bay Area Science Fiction & Fantasy Convention (BayCon) in May 1988. The tentative theme is "What harm can it do to believe in UFOs, psychics, faith healers, etc.?" Sorens believes that while SciFi convention attendees are typically intelligent, they are not immune to believing in nonsense. He sees this as an excellent opportunity to reach a large audience (estimated at 2,200 people) with skeptical viewpoints.

EDITOR'S CORNER by Kent Harker

Kent Harker's editorial discusses the nature of proof and belief. He contrasts scientific proof, governed by the scientific method, with philosophical or religious belief, which may not be subject to scientific analysis. He argues that while non-scientific propositions have value, they belong to a different domain. Harker uses the example of love, which is significant but not rationally dissectible. He describes the path to truth as encountering roadblocks and mirages, with a common tactic being the attempt to prove a universal negative, which is often impossible. He uses the example of someone claiming humans can fly and challenging others to disprove it. Harker asserts that if one offers propositions X and Y, and another accepts only X, the burden of proof remains on the one offering the propositions to show why Y is warranted. He criticizes the idea that one must disprove a claim, stating that the skeptic's role is not to disprove but to remain neutral until sufficient evidence is presented.

Harker refers to the case of Jim Todd and his dog Sonny, who allegedly performed mathematical miracles. He notes that Todd's claim could not be supported under controlled conditions, and Sonny's abilities were attributed to Todd's imagination. He points out that public failure does not sway believers, citing Jim and Sonny's appearance on a radio talk show. Another hazard discussed is the false dichotomy, where attention is diverted from the burden of proof. A true dichotomy is defined as mutually exclusive and exhaustive propositions.

The editorial then addresses scientific creationists, who assail evolutionary theory as non-falsifiable and then attempt to prove evolution false, leading to a false dichotomy where they proclaim creationism established. Harker argues that evolutionists need only defend evolution and do not need to respond to creationist attacks, as the establishment of creationism requires positive evidence for it. He emphasizes that beliefs based on reason can change with new evidence, while beliefs based on faith or personal experience are often resistant to contradiction, especially if they are tied to one's identity.

Harker uses the example of the Bohr model of the atom, suggesting that if it were proven incorrect, physicists would be excited by the new discovery. He advocates for skeptics to accept new theories when evidence is sufficient and to discard rejected ideas without excessive pain or embarrassment, as being wrong is not the end of the world, but losing one's sense of identity is.

He touches upon the historical conflict between science and religion, citing the Copernican revolution and the Church's resistance to Galileo's telescope due to its threat to established dogma. Harker concludes by stating that logic is a good starting point for propositions, and ideas that violate basic canons of formal logic may not require further examination.

THAT 'OL BLACK MAGIC by Bill Bennetta

This article reviews a facsimile edition of "The American Boy's Handy Book," originally published in 1890 by Scribner's. The book is a 430-page manual of crafts, games, and diversions, including instructions for building, staging plays, stuffing birds, training dogs, and constructing devices like mole traps and water telescopes. The reviewer finds the book to be a genuine delight.

The article highlights a section on showmanship by D. C. Beard, the author of the original book, which provides instructions on fortune-telling. Beard's introduction to the subject is described as timely and profitable for young people. He explains that a class of people make a living from tricks and deceptions practiced on the ignorant and superstitious. Beard notes that while some mediums perform bungling tricks, others are "really wonderful." He suggests that any boy can become a fortune-teller with simple contrivances.

Beard then describes how to build two such contrivances: the fortune-teller's box and the magic cask. The reviewer suspects these can produce effects that would shame commercial astrologers or palm readers.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue of "BASIS" revolve around the critical examination of paranormal claims, pseudoscientific theories, and the importance of evidence-based reasoning. The editorial stance is clearly that of skepticism, advocating for rigorous scientific inquiry, logical analysis, and a healthy dose of critical thinking when evaluating extraordinary claims. The newsletter aims to educate the public about common fallacies and deceptive practices, encouraging a more discerning approach to information, whether it pertains to alleged miracles, astrology, creationism, or psychic phenomena. The emphasis is on the scientific method as the most reliable path to truth, while acknowledging the validity of other forms of belief in their appropriate domains. The publication actively seeks to counter what it perceives as widespread gullibility and the prevalence of superstition and charlatanism in society.

This document is a collection of selected articles from the January 1988 issue of "BASIS", the monthly publication of the Bay Area Skeptics. The publication aims to critically examine claims of pseudoscience and the irrational.

Ramparts: Dowsing

The "Ramparts" feature highlights the practice of dowsing, or water-witching. It notes a shift in explanation from the idea that underground springs affect implements like sticks or rods, to the belief that the dowser themselves are the instrument. Carter Hoffman, president of the Central California Chapter of the American Society of Dowsers, states that "It's me. The instrument doesn't really mean a thing, really. It's the man or the woman. We're the instrument." The paraphernalia used can be varied, including car keys, brass rods, clothes hangers, willow branches, and pendulums, along with a "positive attitude." Hoffman claims 97% accuracy. However, the article points out a contradiction when Hoffman states he uses a nylon divining rod because a wooden one is "too dangerous" as it "will just tear the hide right out of your hand," suggesting the rod acts independently. The article contrasts dowsing with the scientific method of finding water by studying geologic features. It also recounts a geologist questioning a dowser who found a dry well, to which the dowser replied he was insulated by his boots. The article suggests this implies an external force acting on the dowser, which can be insulated from, raising questions about why the device indicated water in the first place.

El-Legions: UFOs and Fraud

The El-Legions, identified as "International Directors of the Extra-Terrestrial Communications Network," presented a film and slide show featuring UFO pictures allegedly authenticated by NASA equipment. Aurora El-Legion described an experience of being teleported through a time-space warp. Michael El-Legion offered "Akashic Life Readings" by channeling information from "Ascended Masters" and beings from the "Intergalactic Confederation." However, approximately two weeks after their Hawaii appearance, the El-Legions were indicted in a phone credit-card scam that cost U.S. Sprint $500,000. They were charged with selling about 50 unauthorized credit cards for fees ranging from $65 to $125 per month, in addition to their seance fees.

The Real McCoy: UFO Hoax Debunked

Robert McCoy, head of the Minnesota Skeptics, is featured for his efforts in debunking pseudoscience, citing the work of CSICOP and his own group. The article details a 1979 UFO hoax orchestrated by David Olson, a self-admitted practical joker and chemist. Olson used gunnysacks over his shoes to avoid leaving footprints and a butane torch to simulate an alien spaceship landing in his cousin Curtis Olson's cornfield. The hoax attracted out-of-state UFO investigators and media. Olson kept the joke to himself for nine years until he saw McCoy's letter to the editor debunking a UFO photograph, which prompted him to confess. Even after confessing, some people did not believe it. Curtis Olson, however, still maintains that something unexplainable happened that night. David Olson believes that people's growing capacity for gullibility is linked to advances in high technology, leading them to believe that "ANYTHING can happen."

November Meeting: Science and Paradigms

Norman Sperling writes about the nature of science and the development of paradigms. He explains that science seeks to understand how nature works, often expressed through mathematical patterns, symmetries, and generalizations. The development of science involves observing data and theorizing to create candidate paradigms. New data can lead to revising or extending these paradigms. Sperling discusses how paradigms can be proposed even without a known cause, citing Kepler's Laws and plate tectonics. He notes that while individual leaps like Darwin's evolution or Newton's mechanics are celebrated, gradual collective development, as in quantum mechanics, also advances science. Sperling emphasizes that a candidate paradigm must fit current data, and that "current evidence indicates that..." rather than "scientists believe that...". He acknowledges that science has explored only a fraction of nature's workings, quoting Claude Gregory who stated "we don't know anything" about nature's true workings. He touches on topics at the leading edge of science where data is sparse and paradigms are tentative. The article uses the analogy of fog obscuring things. It mentions how elegant theories can be demolished by "ugly facts," referencing Lockyer's "meteoritic hypothesis." It also discusses how individuals may contest new data, adjust theories, or psychologically reject evidence contrary to their adopted paradigm, citing examples like the polywater scandal and Hoyle's steady-state cosmologies. Failed candidate paradigms are not forgotten and can serve as case studies.

Why the Irrational?

Mary Jo Meadow, a psychology professor at Mankato State University, suggests that belief in the bizarre and unexplainable is closely tied to religious belief systems, providing security and satisfaction. These beliefs function to explain the unexplainable in the cosmos. The problem arises when a belief is dispelled, as truth is a poor substitute, and individuals may distort reality to maintain their beliefs.

UFO Contacts

Dr. James Harder, a professor of Engineering at UC Berkeley, is announced as a featured speaker for the January BAS meeting. Harder is an advocate for the extraterrestrial, "nuts-and-bolts" explanation for UFOs, as opposed to "interdimensional" hypotheses. He is known for his outspoken stance on conspiracy theories and has intimated that Robert Sheaffer was involved in a government cover-up. Harder is expected to discuss "the overwhelming evidence for an alien presence."

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The publication consistently adopts a skeptical stance, critically examining claims of dowsing, UFOs, and other phenomena often associated with pseudoscience. The articles emphasize the importance of scientific methodology, evidence-based reasoning, and the psychological factors that contribute to belief in the irrational. The publication provides a platform for debunking hoaxes and promoting a rational understanding of the world, as evidenced by the focus on Robert McCoy's work and the critique of the El-Legions' fraudulent activities. The editorial stance is clearly in favor of scientific inquiry and against unsubstantiated claims, encouraging readers to approach extraordinary claims with a "skeptical shield."