Bay Area Skeptics Information Sheet - 1987 03

Magazine Overview

This issue of "BASIS", the newsletter of the Bay Area Skeptics, dated March 1987, Volume 6, No. 3, edited by Kent Harker, focuses on skepticism, pseudoscience, and the methods used to debunk extraordinary claims. The main cover story, "STEINER IN THE TRENCHES" by Thren Kerak, details a highly successful demonstration by Robert Steiner, a prominent figure in the Bay Area Skeptics.

Steiner's Demonstration

The article describes Robert Steiner's "tour de force" at the San Mateo Neighborhood Watch Assn. Initially invited to speak to the San Mateo PD's Bunko Squad, Steiner's demonstration of illusions and debunking techniques so impressed them that they requested he present to the Neighborhood Watch Assn. (NWA). The audience of approximately 200 people, significantly larger than the usual 50, was captivated by Steiner's presentation, which distinguished between "bunkum" and "bunko." He performed card illusions and used "Bunkum Bucks" (home-made funny money) to illustrate how easily people can be deceived and separated from their money. The demonstration culminated in a "psychic" surgery act, which received a "rousing approval." A notable quote from a senior citizen attendee reflects the impact: "I'm really going to have to seriously think about that again. I had no idea it would be so easy to mislead me!"

The author, Thren Kerak, reflects on the effectiveness of Steiner's hour-and-a-half demonstration, which substantially "moved 200 minds." Steiner's talent and credibility are growing, with BAS gaining stature in the Bay Area due to his appearances on major media.

"Amazing Grace" Faith Healing Debunked

Another article, "SAY GOOD NIGHT, GRACIE" by Don Henvick, recounts an experience where Bob Steiner enlisted the author to help debunk a faith healer named "Amazing Grace." Henvick posed as an old man with a cane and attended Grace's healing session. Grace's staff had mingled with the audience, gathering information for "semi-cold readings." When Grace called out symptoms, Henvick remained still until Grace pointed to him, claiming he had pain in his left side. He was then "healed," and his cane was taken away. Grace attributed her knowledge to the "word of knowledge" from God. During the event, a staffer recognized Henvick from a previous appearance on Peter Popoff's show, which Steiner used to his advantage.

When Bob Steiner took the stage, he asked Grace two pointed questions: "How do you select who to heal here?" (Answer: "By God") and "Is God ever wrong?" (Answer: "Never!"). After Steiner presented Henvick, who stated he had no ailment, Grace quickly recovered, claiming Henvick was a plant and had nodded his head. The tape was deemed inconclusive. Steiner then pressed Grace's believers, pointing out that if God directs her choices, either God or Grace must be wrong. He also highlighted the placebo effect, noting that believers often self-select when symptoms are called out. The article concludes that while Grace's fans remained unconvinced, Steiner provided the facts, leaving the audience with their faith and the skeptics with the facts.

CSICOP Conference and Other Skeptical News

The issue announces the annual international conference of CSICOP to be held in Los Angeles at the Pasadena Center, featuring topics like ETI, Animal Language, Medical Controversies, Astrology, and Spontaneous Human Combustion. Carl Sagan is listed as the Keynote Speaker.

SJSU Goes Pseudoscience

Skeptic Vaso Bovan raises concerns about San Jose State University (SJSU) establishing a "Pre-Chiropractic Institute" in cooperation with the Palmer School of Chiropractic. Bovan argues that the core concept of chiropractic, "subluxations," lacks scientific foundation, and criticizes SJSU for potentially formalizing a course of study in pre-astrology.

Ramparts Column

The "RAMPARTS" column discusses Ruth Norman, also known as "Uriel," founder of the Unarius Academy of Science, who claims to have had 55 past lives, including historical figures. The column also mentions a "psychic" used by the Twin Cities PD in a rape/murder case, which is analyzed as a "cold reading" technique. It also touches on the "big bang" hypothesis, noting that astronomical evidence supports it, contrary to a reader's suggestion.

From the Chair

Robert Sheaffer's column, "FROM THE CHAIR," continues a discussion from the previous issue regarding reader survey responses on future topics. Suggestions included more "how it's done" explanations of psychic phenomena, exposes of psychiatry, investigations into the media's role in promoting "nonsense," and debunking astrology. Sheaffer notes that while psychiatry can be beneficial, some of its doctrines are questionable. He also defends the "big bang" hypothesis against a reader's doubt.

Reader Suggestions and BAS Operations

Further reader suggestions for improving meetings include making them less casual and more structured with defined formats and time limits. Topics suggested for future meetings include "Law enforcement personnel on use of 'psychics'" and "Food fads & nutrition quackery." Suggestions for activities include selling skeptical posters and bumper stickers, but "infiltrating" phony groups is cautioned against as potentially dangerous.

Regarding how BAS is run, one reader suggested "Nothing -- very good," while another proposed a "Bigger Newsletter." The practicalities of funding and production for a larger newsletter are questioned. The issue also touches on the challenge of volunteer involvement and the need for "willingness."

Other Mentions

There are brief mentions of Dr. Sampson and James Randi, both figures in the skeptical community. The article also addresses a reader's concern about the skeptics' involvement in religion, clarifying that while religious beliefs are not challenged, claims of miracles are scrutinized. The column ends with a reflection on the role of skeptics as "garbagemen of the scientific field."

Editor's Corner

The "EDITOR'S CORNER" links pseudoscience and conspiracy theories, noting that new ideas often face resistance. It discusses the vastness of science and how progress can be rapid within specialized fields.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are the critical examination of paranormal claims, the debunking of pseudoscience, and the promotion of evidence-based reasoning. The Bay Area Skeptics' stance is clearly one of advocating for scientific literacy and critical thinking, distinguishing between personal beliefs and empirically verifiable claims. The newsletter actively engages with its readership to identify topics of interest and improve its operations, while consistently challenging those who promote unsubstantiated claims through various means, including public demonstrations and media analysis.

Title: BASIS
Issue Date: March, 1987
Publisher: Bay Area Skeptics
Type: Monthly publication, newsletter

This issue of "BASIS," the monthly publication of the Bay Area Skeptics, delves into the nature of conspiracy theories, pseudoscience, and the unreliability of psychic predictions. The articles critically analyze the psychological and social underpinnings of these phenomena, advocating for rigorous scientific standards and evidence-based reasoning.

The Problem with Paradigm Shifts and Conspiracy Theories

The opening section addresses the challenge of proposing complete paradigm shifts in science, likening it to moving mountains. It acknowledges that major revisions, or scientific revolutions, have occurred throughout history but require powerful evidence. The author notes that some proponents of such shifts become impatient and impertinent, viewing themselves as outcasts or prophets. When a large group is involved, the cry of conspiracy often emerges, with the scientific community being cast as a "stodgy establishment" suppressing new ideas. Monetary considerations are frequently raised, with examples like the AMA being accused of prioritizing profit over genuine medical advancements.

The article posits that conspiracy theories are a substitute for real theories. It suggests that by focusing on conspiracy charges, opponents can distract from the real issues, as conspiracy notions are generally easier to grasp than complex scientific matters. These theories are described as having a life of their own, metastasizing arrantly and vigorously, with imagination being the only limit to their growth. The author uses the analogy of a Hydra, where cutting off one head only leads to more, and likens the pursuit of definitive proof in conspiracy theories to painting pictures on water, always just out of reach. The exhumation of Lee Harvey Oswald is cited as an example where the conspiracy theory persisted despite the apparent finality of viewing the remains.

Pseudoscience and the "Circling Wagon" Mentality

Another manifestation of pseudoscience identified is the "circling wagon" mentality. This occurs when a group feels its position is rejected by "standard" science. They then pull together to form a tight "Brotherhood of Believers," gaining mutual support and comfort. These groups often publish their own journals in defiance of mainstream science rather than submitting their claims for peer review and critique in recognized publications.

The article asserts that if evidence exists, it will ultimately prevail, and experience shows that when revisions do occur, they take hold quickly. The author concludes that talk of a conspiracy is often evidence that the plaintiff lacks actual evidence, stating, "When I hear talk of a conspiracy I count that as evidence that the plaintiff has no evidence." The "High Court of science" is described as working ponderously but effectively, and any proposed paradigm shift should be subjected to the most careful scrutiny and powerful evidence.

Critiquing Psychic Predictions

The second part of the issue focuses on "MORE 'PREDICTIONS'", critically examining the accuracy of psychic forecasts, particularly for 1986. The article lists several specific predictions that failed to materialize:

• San Francisco was not struck by a severe earthquake in March.
• Madonna and Princess Di did not have babies in 1986.
• There was no assassination attempt against Mikhail Gorbachov.
• New York City was not blacked out for sixteen days.
• No vaccine or cure was developed for AIDS.

It is noted that many psychic predictions are vaguely worded, making them impossible to judge as true or false. Others involve phenomena that occur annually, such as hurricanes or terrorist activity. Some are presented as prognostications but are actually disclosures that were already underway before the predicted date. The article concludes that not one prediction that was both SPECIFIC AND SURPRISING came true in 1986.

Several specific psychics and their failed predictions are detailed:

• Jeane Dixon: Predicted famine relief in Ethiopia, that astronauts would locate water beneath deserts, and that shuttle flights would create artificial gems. She also predicted Princess Di and Madonna would have another baby, and that Tom Selleck would lose a valuable automobile. Her "gift" apparently failed to foresee the Challenger disaster.
• Irene Hughes: Predicted severe earthquakes in San Francisco (March) and Missouri (May), killing hundreds. She also predicted the Pope would be shot, but the bullet would hit his crucifix, saving his life, and that Di would have twins.
• Micki Dahne: Predicted Reagan would turn the presidency over to Bush, and that vaccines for AIDS and herpes would be developed and administered nationwide.
• Clarissa Bernhardt: Predicted Old Faithful would dry up, that scientists would accidentally shoot down a UFO with a laser, and that John McEnroe would retire to play baseball with the SF Giants.
• Sylvia Brown: Predicted Di would be in a family way again and that Superbowl XXI would feature the Raiders and the Bears.
• Barbara Mousalam: Predicted the release of hostages in Lebanon, that Ed Zschau would defeat Cranston, that the GOP would retain control of the Senate, and that the Giants would build a new stadium. She also predicted the Dow-Jones average would not go above 1,800, which it did.

Quotes and Editorial Stance

The issue includes quotes from James Randi: "THE VICTIMS YOU'RE TRYING TO RELIEVE OF THEIR DELUSIONS ARE WILLING SUPPORTERS OF THOSE WHO HAVE CHEATED THEM." and David Hume: "THE KNAVERY AND FOLLY OF MEN ARE SUCH A COMMON PHENOMENON THAT I SHOULD RATHER BELIEVE THE MOST EXTRAORDINARY EVENTS TO ARISE FROM THEIR CONCURRENCE, THAN ADMIT OF A SINGLE VIOLATION OF THE LAWS OF NATURE."

The publication clarifies that opinions expressed in "BASIS" are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of BAS, its board, or its advisors. Information on how to obtain a free sample copy of "BASIS" is provided, including contact details for Bay Area Skeptics and their BBS and hotline.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue are skepticism towards unsubstantiated claims, particularly conspiracy theories and psychic predictions. The editorial stance is clearly in favor of scientific rigor, evidence-based reasoning, and critical thinking. The publication actively debunks pseudoscience and highlights the importance of peer review and careful scrutiny in the scientific process. The issue promotes a rationalist perspective, encouraging readers to question extraordinary claims and rely on verifiable evidence.