Arizona Skeptic - Vol 7 No 1 - 1994

Magazine Overview

Title: The Arizona Skeptic
Issue: Volume 7 Number 1
Date: Summer 1994

This issue of The Arizona Skeptic, a journal of critical thinking, features a personal account of unexplained phenomena, a list of predictions for the upcoming year, and discussions on entertainment relevant to skeptics.

Spooks in a Skeptic's Home by Hans Sebald

Professor Emeritus of Sociology Hans Sebald recounts a perplexing experience in his home during the summer of 1992. Upon returning from archival research on witch trials, he encountered a series of mysterious, loud, and shrill beeping sounds emanating from various objects and locations within his house. Initially suspecting insects like crickets, he found no evidence after thorough searching. The sounds seemed to come from all parts of the house, sometimes hanging in the air, and persisted even when he was still.

Adding to the sensory assault was an acrid odor, which Sebald initially linked to Satanic visitations described in occult literature. He soon identified the source as mothball vapors used to protect sweaters from insects. After removing the mothballs, the odor dissipated, but the beeping continued.

Sebald, a self-proclaimed skeptic, attempted to explain the phenomenon through biological, mechanical, or electronic causes. He ruled out biological explanations due to the lack of insects and mechanical explanations because the sound's location didn't always correspond with motion. This left electronics as the most likely culprit.

He consulted an electronics expert, who suggested testing whether the house still beeped with the main power breaker thrown. Sebald did so, stopping all electronic devices, but the beeping continued. His primary concern was his home computer, fearing it might be damaged by "weird electronic spiders." He consulted a computer expert who confirmed that static electricity could indeed corrupt files.

Following a suggestion, Sebald mixed fabric softener with water and sprayed it on carpets and furniture, but the beeps persisted. After ten days of bombardment, he considered other possibilities. He then investigated devices operating independently of the public power company, such as a battery-operated clock and two smoke detectors. Removing the batteries from the smoke detectors caused the beeps to stop abruptly. He confirmed this by reinserting the batteries and witnessing the resumption of beeps.

While Sebald identified the source, the 'why' and 'how' remained a mystery. Experts were surprised and perplexed, offering a speculative guess about a relation between mothball vapors and radiation from the smoke detectors. Sebald noted that the beeps always sounded like "little explosions," and curiously, the beeps resumed immediately upon reinserting the smoke detector batteries, even after the mothball vapors were gone.

Sebald invites readers with technical explanations to submit them. He uses this experience to illustrate how easily people might attribute such inexplicable events to supernatural causes, citing Gallup-Poll statistics showing a significant percentage of Americans believe in ghosts, spirits, and demons. He contrasts this with the mundane electronic explanation, suggesting that a simple smoke detector might be mistaken for "ghosts" or "poltergeists."

Skeptics Predictions for 1994

On November 6, 1994, the Phoenix Skeptics held their annual meeting to generate predictions for the next fourteen months. The group claims an accuracy rate of over 59% in past years. They posit that a group of informed individuals can predict future events without special powers.

The predictions are categorized into several areas:

• Crime and Punishment: Predictions include an increase in crime and prison population, death penalties for juveniles becoming a hot topic, no teenager being executed, and the Bolles who-dun-it case remaining unsolved.
• Economics: Forecasts include a drop in the Prime Lending rate, a rise in the national debt, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching 4200 before a major adjustment.
• Environment and Sciences: Predictions include a 6.5 earthquake in Southern California, mudslides, seasonal temperature adjustments indicating no summer in Phoenix, the fading of El Niño, genetically engineered products being popular, a radical drop in Tay-Sachs disease incidence, AIDS vaccine testing, and the licensing of a next-generation nuclear power plant.
• Personalities: This section includes predictions about a major Asian political leader dying, Bob Packwood resigning, the Crown Princess of Japan announcing a pregnancy (a son), Charles and Diana dissolving their marriage, Dr. Kevorkian becoming the New York Mets' team doctor, Oral Roberts not being called to God, Tammy Faye's second divorce, a terrorist winning the Nobel Peace Prize, Ronald Reagan remembering something, Bush winning an election, Hillary Rodham Clinton being Time's Woman of the Year, "Barney bashing" continuing, Arnold Schwarzenegger's box office success, and Rush Limbaugh's popularity declining.
• Politics: Predictions include a sex scandal rocking Congress, California not splitting into multiple states, bipartisan support for increasing Immigration Service personnel, and the Health Care bill passing but being watered down.
• Foreign Affairs: Predictions cover fifty US soldiers killed in Haiti, a mutual defense alliance between Russia and Ukraine, North Korea not initiating war with South Korea, Australia leaving the Commonwealth, Democrats suffering losses in Congressional elections, a Clinton/Dole alliance being defeated on a domestic program, Evan Mecham showing a sense of humor, a movie star entering politics, Governor Symington crashing and burning, Dick Mahoney changing jobs, and Conservative Christians making inroads into local politics.
• International Politics: Predictions include Arizona Republicans disowning Barry Goldwater, Haiti's Aristide not surviving 1994, Pat Robertson modifying his stance on abortion, Soviet nuclear missiles being sold, the US normalizing relations with Vietnam, and Ross Perot spending $1 billion.
• Sports: Predictions include the Phoenix Cardinals having a winning season, the University of Texas having an improved football team, and the Phoenix Suns performing extraordinarily.
• Tragedy: A prediction of an international airline flight going down with the loss of all on board.

Meeting Schedule for 1994

The Phoenix Skeptics hold their meetings on the first Saturday of each month, with adjustments for holidays. The schedule lists meetings from June through December, including the annual predictions meeting in November.

Where Have We Been?

This section addresses the delay in publishing issues of The Arizona Skeptic. The current editor, Michael A. Stackpole, explains that while Jim Lippard, the previous editor, was punctual, the current editor's writing profession makes it difficult to dedicate sufficient time to the periodical. Stackpole notes that in 1993, he produced approximately 386,000 words, including a fantasy novel that sold well.

What Harm Superstition? by Michael A. Stackpole

Michael A. Stackpole explores the nature and potential harm of superstitions. He defines superstition as an irrational belief in a causal relationship between unrelated phenomena, often explained metaphysically and persisting despite contrary evidence.

Stackpole shares his experience of smashing a mirror on a Friday the 13th radio show to demonstrate disdain for the superstition, noting he experienced no bad luck afterward. He references Dr. Ray Hyman's observation that irrational beliefs stem from the human tendency to see patterns and determine causal relationships. Stackpole explains the logical fallacy "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" (after this, therefore because of this), where correlation is mistaken for causation.

He illustrates this with a story of a Lusitania passenger who believed turning on a light caused the ship's sinking. He also describes his own experience learning to play golf, where developing a ritual of practice swings improved his game. He questions whether this ritual is superstition or simply a method for screening distractions and improving concentration. He notes that while his ritual worked, his explanation for its success might be incorrect, potentially attributing it to "magick" rather than improved technique or a placebo effect.

Stackpole categorizes the harm of superstitions into two areas:

1. Hobbling Obsessions: Individuals become so bound by superstitions that it hinders their lives, ranging from minor inconveniences (like avoiding the 13th floor) to serious issues (like refusing medical care).
2. Cloudy Thinking: Superstitions promote imprecise thinking, leading believers to seek spurious explanations for problems and preventing them from finding true solutions. He uses Ufology as an example, where believers meticulously research individual cases while skeptics generalize from evidence to dismiss entire categories of sightings.

He concludes that while the ability to make connections is human, it's crucial to examine these connections for veracity. He suggests that as long as we recognize our pattern-making abilities and test them, superstitions pose no inherent harm, unlike the potential for flawed reasoning to lead to inaction or incorrect conclusions.

Skeptically Entertaining by Michael A. Stackpole

Michael A. Stackpole discusses works of fiction and television that can be both entertaining and educational for skeptics. He highlights:

• Sherlock Holmes Stories by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle: Despite Doyle's personal belief in faeries, his stories exemplify the workings of a scientific, deductive mind applied to peculiar problems, offering a model for analyzing paranormal claims.
• Jacques Futrelle's Van Dusen Stories: Similar to Holmes, these stories feature a deductive genius, Professor S. F. X. Van Dusen, and are available in Dover Book collections.
• Patrick A. Kelley's Mysteries: Kelley writes contemporary mysteries featuring a magician/skeptic named Harry.
• Harry Colderwood's "Sleightly" Books: These books, including "Sleightly Deceived" and "Sleightly Lethal," are difficult to find but are considered entertaining and comparable to the work of James Randi.
• Garfield Reeve-Stevens' "Nighteyes": This novel about a UFO abduction is noted for allegedly being the source material for Budd Hopkins' "Queen of Abductees."
• The X Files (Fox Television): The series is presented as a prime example of skeptical entertainment, featuring FBI agents Dana Scully (the skeptic) and Fox Mulder (who often finds paranormal explanations). While the show's viewpoint is largely un-skeptical, it presents phenomena and cases that can serve as primers for understanding how believers perceive these events. Stackpole notes that the show sometimes reverses roles, with Mulder acting as the skeptic when Scully experiences paranormal events, and that it reflects continuity in character development. He suggests that while the show may not always provide solid debunking, its introductions offer a quick overview of phenomena that can be useful for skeptics.

Stackpole concludes that for those seeking entertainment without the cost of psychic hotlines, these options provide alternatives. He emphasizes that while these shows may not be "high science," they offer engagement without sacrificing critical thinking.

The Arizona Skeptic Publication Information

The Arizona Skeptic is the official publication of the Phoenix Skeptics and the Tucson Skeptical Society (TUSKS). Their goals are to subject paranormal claims to scientific testing, act as a clearinghouse for information, and promote critical thinking. The contents are copyrighted 1994 by the Phoenix Skeptics. Material may be reprinted with proper attribution. Correspondence can be sent to P. O. Box 62792, Phoenix, AZ 85082-2792, or electronically to [email protected]. Manuscripts become the property of the Phoenix Skeptics and are subject to editing. Subscription rates are $12.50 per year. The editor is Michael A. Stackpole, with Ted Karren handling production.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring themes in this issue revolve around skepticism, the critical examination of paranormal claims, and the distinction between rational inquiry and superstitious belief. The editorial stance is clearly in favor of scientific methodology, logical reasoning, and evidence-based explanations, as exemplified by the articles on Sebald's experience and Stackpole's analysis of superstition. The magazine actively promotes critical thinking and debunks unsubstantiated claims, while also acknowledging the human tendency towards pattern recognition and belief in the supernatural. The inclusion of "Skeptics Predictions" and reviews of skeptical entertainment further reinforces the publication's commitment to promoting a rational worldview.