Arizona Skeptic - Vol 5 No 5 - 1992

Magazine Overview

Title: The Arizona Skeptic
Issue: Volume 5, Issue 5
Date: March/April 1992
Publisher: Phoenix Skeptics and Tucson Skeptical Society (TUSKS)
Focus: Promoting critical thinking and scientific analysis of paranormal claims, fringe sciences, and societal issues.

"The Vitality of Mythical Numbers" by Max Singer

This article critically examines the commonly accepted statistic that heroin addicts in New York City steal between two to five billion dollars worth of property annually and commit half of all property crimes. Singer traces the origin of this estimate to a police official and shows how it is perpetuated. He demonstrates that by using basic arithmetic and considering factors like the value of stolen goods, the cost of fencing items, and the proportion of time addicts spend in jail or dealing, the estimated annual theft by addicts is significantly lower, likely around a quarter billion dollars.

Singer outlines the calculation method: assuming 100,000 addicts with a $30/day habit require $1.1 billion annually. Since addicts sell stolen property for about a quarter of its value, they would need to steal $4-5 billion. However, he factors in time spent in jail, dealing, and prostitution, concluding that even with generous estimates for legal income, the figure is closer to $1 billion. He then approaches the problem from the other side, estimating the total value of property stolen in New York City. Official reported theft is around $300 million, including $100 million in auto theft (rarely by addicts). Shoplifting, estimated at 1% of retail sales ($15 billion), amounts to $150 million. Burglary, estimated at $200 per incident for 500,000 burglaries, adds another $100 million. Mugging and robbery are estimated to contribute $8 million. Summing these, even with generous allowances, the total property stolen by addicts is unlikely to exceed half a billion dollars, with a quarter billion being a more reasonable estimate.

The article emphasizes that this is not to downplay the problem of heroin addiction, which is a terrible curse with significant societal costs beyond the monetary value of stolen property, including fear and increased security measures. A key point is how people's attitudes toward numbers can lead them to accept large figures without critical examination. The article also implies that if addict theft is lower, then the number of addicts might also be lower than commonly believed, as the cost of heroin is largely paid for by theft.

Singer also touches on the concept of "mythical numbers" and how they can gain traction. He provides an example of the Kefauver Committee's $20 billion estimate for annual gambling take, which was reportedly "picked from a hat." Another example is the assertion that 28 Black Panthers were murdered by police, which was later found to be inaccurate.

Singer further discusses the number of addicts, noting that informal estimates often exceed official figures. He contrasts the federal register's 30,000 addicts with the health department's 70,000, while acknowledging that many addicts are not on any list. He uses the term "street addict" to describe those who use heroin daily and fit the common image, excluding occasional users or those with less severe problems. He estimates the street addict population in New York City to be around 70,000, based on factors like time spent in prison and demographic data, finding higher estimates like 100,000 or 200,000 implausible.

"Truth Almost Extinct in Tales of Imperiled Species" by Julian Simon

Julian Simon challenges the alarming predictions of mass species extinction, particularly those suggesting that a million or more species could be lost to mankind in the next two decades. He cites statements from Thomas Lovejoy of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Edward O. Wilson of Harvard, which he characterizes as "scary rhetoric." Simon asserts that there is no solid evidence to support these predictions, which he believes are exaggerated for fundraising purposes.

He points to a WWF fund-raising pitch that claimed "some scientists believe that up to 1 million species of life will become extinct by the end of this century." Simon argues that the statement "some scientists believe" is "weasel-wording" and not scientific evidence. He traces the WWF's forecast to Norman Myers' 1979 book, "The Sinking Ark," which estimated extinction rates of about one species every four years between 1600-1900 and one per year from 1900 to the present. Myers provided no sources for these estimates, which referred only to animals.

Simon criticizes Myers for then extrapolating from this data to suggest that the rate "could now have reached" 100 species per year. This figure, he argues, was then converted by Myers and WWF scientist Thomas Lovejoy into a projection of 14-20 percent of all species being lost by the year 2000, equating to about 40,000 species per year or one million from 1980 to 2000. Simon calls this an "extinction rate is nothing but pure guesswork."

Simon presents a different perspective based on available evidence. He notes that extinction rates for animals between 1600 and 1900 were about one every four years, and from 1900 to the present, about one per year. He suggests that a fair reading of the data suggests a prediction perhaps one-thousandth of the WWF's claim. He also highlights that it is difficult to extinguish an important species, citing the examples of smallpox and the medfly. Furthermore, he points to the existence of "banks" for preserving genetic material and the advancements in genetic recombination techniques as factors that mitigate the threat of permanent extinction.

Simon concludes that the facts cast the phenomenon of species extinction in a much less frightening light than the WWF's portrayal. He suggests that the WWF's claims are not supported by scientific facts and are used to generate fear and solicit funds.

Book Review: "Space-Time Transients and Unusual Events" by Michael A. Persinger and Gyslaine F. Lafrenière

Reviewed by Jim Lippard, this book attempts to find correlations between anomalous events collected from Charles Fort's works and other sources, and to suggest possible explanatory hypotheses. The authors categorized 6,060 events and analyzed them by time, space, and category.

The book covers various types of anomalous events, including fall phenomena, electromagnetic phenomena, unexplained sonic phenomena, UFOs, astronomical events, meteorological events, geophysical events, unusual forces, disappearances, unusual animal behavior, and archeological finds. The final chapters present data analysis and hypotheses.

Persinger and Lafrenière compared data on volcanic activity, earthquakes, meteors, and animal deaths with Fortean data. They found correlations between volcanic activity and earthquakes, volcanic activity and unusual weather, meteors and animal deaths, UFO sightings and Fortean events, and unusual animal observations and Fortean events. They also noted a significant correlation between the frequency of Fortean events and population density, which they interpret as "persistent artifacts of defective 'instrumentation'" where the human population acts as a network of recorders. A hypothesis involving solar and geophysical forces is also proposed, suggesting correlations between extreme weather conditions and sunspot cycles.

However, the review notes that many of the cases presented have mundane explanations. Examples include the "ghost lights" of Silver Cliff, which were investigated, and UFO abduction cases like the Betty and Barney Hill and Charles Hickson and Calvin Parker incidents, which have been attributed to hoaxes. The review also mentions that mechanisms for "spontaneous human combustion" and the presence of modern items in ancient rocks have been explained by scientific means. The authors themselves acknowledge that their correlations are "interesting, but not conclusive" and that "nothing can be concluded about the mechanism of the events."

Lippard concludes that while the book is interesting for those interested in Forteana and offers some plausible hypotheses, it does not provide details for investigating particular anomalies. He recommends consulting the works of Charles Fort and William R. Corliss for further investigation.

Other Articles and Notes

• "Satanic Ritual Abuse in Epping?" by Mike Dash discusses a follow-up on an alleged satanic child abuse case, noting that the main witnesses for the prosecution were discredited.
• "Biospherians Began with 3-Month Food Supply" by Jim Erickson reveals that Biosphere 2 began with food supplies and that crew members took items into the bubble. Accusations of compromising the experiment were also reported by the New York Times, involving allegations of data editing.
• "Not Out of Africa" by Mary Lefkowitz debunks Afrocentric claims that ancient Greeks stole everything from Egypt.
• "When Do Anomalies Begin?" by Alan Lightman and Owen Gingerich discusses how scientific anomalies are recognized only after compelling explanations are found within a new conceptual framework.
• "How Not to Argue with Creationists" by Jim Lippard describes bad tactics used by Australian critics of creationism.
• "Off the Beat: Euclid's Crop Circles" by Ivars Peterson reports on claims of geometrical theorems found in crop circles.
• "Case Studies in Pathological Science" by Denis L. Rousseau examines how loss of objectivity led to false conclusions in studies of polywater, infinite dilution, and cold fusion.
• "Bubble Trouble" by Rocky L. Stewart is a resignation letter from the Biosphere 2 software engineer citing false information as a reason for quitting.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The Arizona Skeptic consistently promotes critical thinking, skepticism, and the scientific method. The journal aims to subject claims of the paranormal, occult, and fringe sciences to rigorous analysis, providing factual and scientific information. The articles in this issue exemplify this stance by deconstructing widely accepted statistics related to crime and addiction, challenging alarmist environmental claims, and reviewing books that explore anomalous phenomena with a critical eye, often seeking rational explanations.

The editorial stance is clearly against unsubstantiated claims and the misuse of statistics or rhetoric to persuade the public. The journal encourages readers to question assumptions, examine evidence, and apply logical reasoning to complex issues. The recurring theme is the importance of evidence-based analysis over sensationalism or uncritical acceptance of popular beliefs.