The Arizona Skeptic

Magazine Overview

Title: The Arizona Skeptic
Issue: Volume 5, Issue 4
Date: January/February 1992
Publisher: Phoenix Skeptics
Type: A Journal Promoting Critical Thinking

Predictions for 1992!

This section, compiled by Mike Stackpole, presents 52 predictions made by the Phoenix Skeptics at their December 7, 1991 meeting. The group notes a historical hit rate of over 60% in previous years, with a 49.75% hit rate for 1991 as of December 17. The predictions cover a wide array of topics, including:

• Politics and Government: A surprise Democrat candidate for President, Gorbachev getting a talk show, a new woman on the Supreme Court, increased Democratic control in the House, and a lower incumbent reelection rate.
• Economy: Greenspan's "meaningful downturn" worsening, inflation increasing, and the Dow Jones Index cracking 3300.
• Social Issues: People bringing guns to work, another Kennedy scandal, Ted Kennedy becoming born again, Jimmy Swaggart ministering to another fallen woman, increased drug use, and Arizona voting down the Martin Luther King holiday.
• Technology and Science: The Doomsday Clock moving closer to midnight, the KGB showing interest in Maricopa County Sheriff's Office interrogation techniques, a nuclear power accident in Eastern Europe, a Soviet Military nuclear accident, new US hostages in the Middle East, an earthquake in Tokyo, and UFO sightings over New York City and Miami.
• Health: Increased cancer in South Chilean sheep, a cholera epidemic threat to US border towns, no white fly problem, an AIDS vaccine breakthrough with FDA delays, and increased skin cancer.
• Culture and Entertainment: The Phoenix Cardinals' record worsening, the January 4th eclipse spawning new religions and diets, "Batman Returns" being the top-grossing film, and Terry Anderson having a best-selling book.
• Other: California not falling into the ocean, astronomers declared "endangered" on Mt. Graham, an asteroid near-miss, Maricopa County failing a bond issue, Manuel Noriega getting a light sentence, Michael Jackson marrying David Duke's daughter, British pranksters creating crop circles, Japanese electronics industry growth, RU486 approval, Democrats increasing House control, Washington Redskins winning the Superbowl, and a prominent athlete admitting steroid use and a politician admitting HIV positive status.

Comments on Lippard's Review of They Call It Hypnosis

By Robert A. Baker, this article addresses the controversial nature of hypnosis. Baker, author of "They Call It Hypnosis," aims to provide reliable information. He states that claims of hypnotizing people behind their backs, via ESP, or over the telephone are unfounded. He emphasizes that hypnotized individuals will not act against their will, refuting the idea of "Manchurian Candidates" created by the CIA, citing a failed experiment to assassinate Castro. Baker also discusses Spiegel's findings on brain wave differences, noting they have not been replicated. He expresses skepticism about hypnotic susceptibility tests, suggesting they measure compliance and suggestibility rather than true hypnotizability, and concludes that virtually anyone can be hypnotized if they are willing.

Book Review: Alcoholics Anonymous: Cult or Cure? by Charles Bufe

Reviewed by Terry Sandbek, Ph.D., this review examines Charles Bufe's book which questions the effectiveness and nature of Alcoholics Anonymous (A.A.). Bufe argues that A.A. is a revised version of the Oxford Group Movement (OGM), a fundamentalist Christian movement. The review highlights the parallels between A.A.'s Twelve Steps and OGM principles, including beliefs in powerlessness, divine guidance, confession, and restitution. Bufe contends that A.A. is religious, despite claims of being spiritual, and points out the contradiction of treating alcoholism as a disease while offering a moral cure. The review notes that A.A. members often insist the "higher power" can be anything to accommodate atheists and agnostics. Bufe also criticizes A.A.'s focus on individual culpability and disregard for social factors. While A.A. is not deemed a cult by Bufe (fitting only 6 out of 17 characteristics), its effectiveness is questioned, with studies suggesting spontaneous remission rates are comparable or better, and that A.A. only succeeds with about two percent of the nation's alcoholics. The review also mentions the proliferation of non-A.A. Twelve-Step programs and secular alternatives like Rational Recovery.

Articles of Note

This section briefly summarizes several articles from other publications:

• "Biosphere's Holiday Meal, Gifts Come on Winter Solstice" (The Arizona Republic): Discusses the Biosphere 2 project, including the admission of pumping in fresh air.
• "Twisted History" (Newsweek): Examines historical inaccuracies in Oliver Stone's film "JFK."
• "Bottom Line: How Crazy Is It?" (Newsweek): Discusses the plausibility of JFK assassination conspiracy theories.
• "Corny Fractals" (letter, New Scientist): Explains how to create a "crop circle" using three people and a rope.
• "The Case Against Jim Garrison" (GQ): Contrasts the real Jim Garrison with his depiction in the "JFK" film.
• "Trouble in Paradise" (Air & Space): Describes pros and cons of the Biosphere 2 project.
• "The Creation" (U.S. News & World Report): Covers the conflict between religion and science regarding creationism.
• "Flight of the Bumblebee" (Nature): Reports on research measuring airflow from hoverfly wings.
• "Creations of the Dark" (New York Review of Books): Reviews books on crop circles and argues for the hoax hypothesis.

Meetings

• December Meeting (1991): All predictions from the lead story were created. A short clip about crop circles and men claiming responsibility was shown.
• January Meeting: Featured a videotape of "Beyond Belief" and a demonstration of yogurt exhibiting hunger. Michael Johnson's catapult lobbing ping-pong balls was also shown.

Upcoming Meetings

The Phoenix Skeptics will meet on February 1st at Jerry's Restaurant for lunch at 12:30 PM. Meetings are held on the first Saturday of each month.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The Arizona Skeptic consistently promotes critical thinking and scientific skepticism. The "Predictions for 1992!" section reflects a skeptical approach to forecasting future events, often with a humorous or cynical edge. The review of "Alcoholics Anonymous: Cult or Cure?" and the article on hypnosis demonstrate a commitment to examining claims rigorously and debunking pseudoscience or unsubstantiated beliefs. The publication also highlights articles from other sources that apply critical analysis to current events, historical interpretations, and scientific or pseudoscientific claims. The editorial stance is clearly in favor of evidence-based reasoning and against dogma, whether religious, pseudoscientific, or organizational.