Arizona Skeptic - Vol 3 No 1 - 1990

Magazine Overview

The January 1990 Edition of The Arizona Skeptic, a journal promoting critical thinking, is published by The Phoenix Skeptics. The issue prominently features "PREDICTIONS 1990" on its cover.

Predictions for 1990

The issue begins with a review of the Phoenix Skeptics' 1989 predictions, stating they had 34 confirmed hits out of 51, achieving a 66.6% accuracy rate. Successful predictions included Joan Collins' cosmetics line and the fall of Romania's government. They also noted the non-occurrence of Jesus' return and the end of the world as their boldest prediction. Failures included not predicting the San Francisco earthquake, the death of Ayatollah Khomeni, the demise of Jim Wright, or the fall of the Warsaw Pact.

The magazine then lists 31 predictions for 1990, made at the December 2, 1989 meeting of the Phoenix Skeptics. These include:

1. Phoenix will not get a Major League Baseball franchise.
2. Political unrest will continue in China.
3. Maggie Thatcher will not end the year as Prime Minister of the UK.
4. Chinese leader Deng Xiaopeng will die before year's end.
5. Cory Aquino will face another coup attempt in the Philippines.
6. Mikhail Gorbachev will be removed from office in 1990.
7. The United States inflation rate will go beyond 5%.
8. Pope John Paul II will kiss a runway, possibly in the Soviet Union.
9. An attempt to kill President George Bush will be made if he travels to Columbia for a drug summit.
10. Several prominent show business stars will pass away (e.g., Jimmy Stewart, George Burns, Ronald Reagan).
11. Jesus will postpone his return to earth again.
12. The United States will enter a recession in 1990.
13. Charles Keating will update his passport and get a new address.
14. The cold fusion controversy will continue, with Japanese discoveries adding to the problem.
15. Inflation and economic hard times will continue in Latin America.
16. US combat troops will see action in Columbia.
17. Jim Bakker will create a Penitentiary Pentecostal Ministry.
18. Dramatic advances in the cure for cancer will be made.
19. A high government official will die in office.
20. Zsa-Zsa Gabor will again face legal trouble.
21. Serious advances will be made in identifying and isolating the different types of quarks.
22. General Noriega will remain in power.
23. Killer Bees will be found in Arizona.
24. Fire Ants make news in Arizona.
25. Evan Meacham will taste defeat.
26. Several anti-abortion candidates for national office will be defeated.
27. Wedding bells for Jane Fonda.
28. Dan Quayle will realize the Cold War is over.
29. Someone in the nation's First Family will be hospitalized.
30. More stories of UFO visits will come from the USSR.
31. A famine will cause a leadership crisis in the USSR.
32. Gorbachev becomes Born Again (Either Christian or Marxist).
33. 1990 will be Jimmy Swaggart's comeback year.
34. A powerful earthquake will shake Los Angeles.
35. Another devastating hurricane will lash the eastern seaboard.
36. Scandal will link Tammy Bakker and Jerry Falwell.
37. 1990 will bring a cooler summer to Phoenix.
38. Paul and Jan Crouch will raise millions, ostensibly for the poor.
39. A currently unknown recording artist will have a Billboard #1 hit.
40. The American southwest will face a drought.
41. Mike Tyson will have a new manager.
42. Lebanon will have a new president.
43. The IRA will attempt to kidnap or kill one of Queen Elizabeth's grandchildren.
44. The US will normalize relations with Iran.
45. There will be a move to change the US national anthem (Leading candidate: America the Beautiful).
46. More US hostages will be taken in Lebanon.
47. Worldwide, acts of terrorism will decrease, especially as related to the Middle East.
48. Gorbachev will be Time's Man of the Year.
49. The Nobel Committee will not award a Peace Prize in 1990.
50. Despite the NRA's efforts, limitations on gun ownership will be signed into law and upheld in court.

The Skeptics also predict their hit rate will be higher than any "real" psychic's, but acknowledge they will miss as many issues as they hit, and their predictions will have about as much validity as any other seer's.

Some Failures of Organized Skepticism

Jim Lippard writes about how skeptics, like believers, are human and subject to failings. He argues that skeptical arguments can be emotional, illogical, or fraught with error. A common error is going beyond rational argument or available evidence to maintain a skeptical viewpoint. Lippard uses his own investigation of psychic detective Jonathan Chris as an example, where initial findings were later revised after further inquiry.

He also discusses James Randi's investigation of psychic detective Dorothy Allison, who claimed to have provided the name "Williams" to the Atlanta Police Department. Randi's initial report suggested Allison did not provide the correct name, but further checks indicated that one of the names she provided was indeed "Williams."

Another example involves Elie Shneour's article in the Skeptical Inquirer regarding an experiment by "Professor Elizabeth Rauscher" on faith healer Olga Worrall. Shneour claimed Rauscher was not affiliated with the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory, but Lippard discovered Rauscher was indeed on staff and had attempted to correct the Skeptical Inquirer. However, Shneour was correct that the experiment was not conducted at LBL.

Lippard also critiques CSICOP's handling of the "Mars effect" affair and the misrepresentations in an Australian Skeptics' publication regarding a debate between creationist Duane Gish and geologist Ian Plimer. Lippard details how the article mischaracterized Gish's statements on evolution, the biblical flood, and other creationist beliefs.

Lippard concludes that skeptics must be careful in their investigations and public comments to avoid errors and misrepresentations.

Seeing is Believing?

Michael A. Stackpole recounts an experience in Las Vegas with three friends where they engaged in an impromptu experiment in psychokinesis (PK) at a casino. While waiting for dinner, they played slot machines and a Wheel of Fortune. They claim that by humming in unison, they achieved a series of wins, including a 40-to-1 payout on the Wheel of Fortune, resulting in $14.25 profit from a 25¢ investment. Stackpole offers three possible explanations: luck, the casino rigging the game to entertain the growing crowd, or actual manipulation of the Wheel through psychic powers. He notes that by parapsychological standards, their success in making money would indicate they were not using psychic powers, as such powers are believed to be unusable for personal enrichment.

Editorial Blathering

This section addresses the newsletter's hiatus, explaining that the previous editor, Ron Harvey, had to step down due to work commitments. The current editor, who took over in autumn, explains the delay in producing the newsletter due to summer travel and a desire to produce a larger format issue with more articles. Judy Sawyer will be editing a larger journal. The Phoenix Skeptics have continued to hold their monthly meetings, discussing topics like CIA psychic commandos and KGB out-of-body-going agents. The editor also mentions appearing on a radio show to discuss superstitions and contributing to a report on Satanism in America. Additionally, an anthology of skeptical articles was edited for Centerline Press.

The editorial calls for reader contributions, including articles, book reviews, and "spotters" (individuals who identify relevant articles in other publications). The need for articles that confirm their 1990 predictions is emphasized to improve their hit rate. The editorial also mentions a past disk crash that affected their mailing list and asks for members to get in touch if they haven't heard from them.

The section concludes with an announcement for the February meeting, featuring Dr. Hans Sebald of ASU speaking on Witchcraft.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The issue consistently promotes critical thinking and skepticism, questioning paranormal claims and highlighting potential flaws in both believers' and skeptics' reasoning. The Phoenix Skeptics position themselves as rational investigators, but also acknowledge the possibility of unexplained phenomena, as seen in the Las Vegas psychokinesis account. The editorial stance is one of open inquiry, encouraging evidence-based reasoning while remaining open to new discoveries, even if they challenge current understanding. There's a clear emphasis on rigorous investigation and avoiding hasty conclusions.