Arizona Skeptic - Vol 2 No 3 - 1988

Magazine Overview

Title: The Arizona Skeptic
Issue: Volume 2, Issue 3
Date: November/December 1988
Publisher: Phoenix Skeptics and the Tucson Skeptical Society (TUSKS)

This issue of The Arizona Skeptic delves into a variety of topics from a skeptical viewpoint, featuring predictions for the upcoming year, psychological analyses of belief, book reviews, and reports on skeptical society meetings.

Predictions for 1989 and Beyond

The lead article presents a list of predictions for 1989, generated by members of the Phoenix and Tucson Skeptical Societies during a meeting on November 19, 1988. The predictions are categorized into several areas:

• Nature and Natural Disasters: Includes a tornado in the Midwest, a whale pod beaching, an airliner crash, and the discovery of killer bees in Arizona.
• Politics and Political Disasters: Covers Dan Quayle, a worldwide banking crisis, changes in Rumania and the Soviet Union, Middle East peace, challenges for Gorbachev, troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, Jim Wright's presidential aspirations, Oliver North's pardon, a new Emperor of Japan, allegations against the President, increased government revenues, alleged feuds and reconciliations between Princess Diana and Fergie, and a rise in neo-nazi and white supremacist activity.
• Arts and Entertainment: Predicts Elvis Presley will not reveal details of faking his death, rumors of Elvis and Jim Morrison working on an album, Whitley Strieber admitting his UFO trilogy was a hoax, wedding bells for Elizabeth Taylor, a female star launching a cosmetics line, a record year for movies with a new top-grossing film, and a new album by John Lennon.
• Science: Foresees discoveries about black holes, the hottest summer on record, new fossils supporting evolution, breakthroughs in superconductivity, delays in the superconducting supercollider, issues with the Soviet probe to Mars, no human on Mars in five years, the furthest distant object seen, planets orbiting other stars, a method to produce an image like the Shroud of Turin without photography, no discovery of monopoles, and a new no-calorie cooking oil.
• Medicine: Predicts AIDS will be most prevalent among low-income, minority males, rice bran as a health food, people seeking AIDS cures in Mexico, FDA foot-dragging on an AIDS cure, and genetic manipulation leading to cures for AIDS and cancer.
• Society: Suggests the term "conservative" will acquire pejorative overtones, a rise in the illegitimacy rate, deteriorating traffic conditions in Phoenix, and high prices for Phoenix Cardinal tickets.
• Religion: States that the rapture, the birth of the Anti-Christ, and the end of the world will not occur, despite scriptural predictions. It also mentions proof of Noah's Ark being advanced but the Turkish government not allowing an expedition, and the Vatican posting its third consecutive deficit year.

The authors conclude by humorously stating their predictions will have an accuracy rating equal to or better than "real" psychics, and about as much validity.

Psychological Factors Conducive to Paranormal Belief

This article by Jim Lippard explores several psychological factors that contribute to paranormal beliefs. These factors are divided into four categories:

• Subjective Validation: This refers to the "fallacy of personal validation," where individuals rate generalized personality sketches as highly accurate because they believe they are tailored specifically to them. Experiments by Forer, Sundberg, Carlson, Snyder, Shenkel, and Hyman demonstrate how people tend to accept vague statements as personally relevant, especially when they believe the source is credible (e.g., a psychologist or a personality test).
• Belief Biases: These include predispositions that alter perceptions, belief perseverance, illusory correlation, confirmation bias, and the illusion of control. For example, believers in ESP are more susceptible to the illusion of control and tend to underestimate chance, while nonbelievers are more accurate. Belief perseverance means that initial beliefs are hard to change, even when presented with contradictory evidence. Illusory correlation leads people to perceive connections that don't exist, and confirmation bias makes individuals seek information that confirms their existing beliefs.
• Memory Failures: Failures in acquisition, retention, and recall of memory can contribute to paranormal beliefs. Examples include the exploitation of memory errors by magicians and the phenomenon of "hindsight bias" or selective memory for success, where believers remember favorable information more accurately than unfavorable information.
• Coincidence: People tend to underestimate the probability of coincidences, leading them to seek further explanations. The "clustering illusion" (things come in clusters) and the "gremlin illusion" (things happen at the wrong times) are also discussed.

Lippard concludes that education about these factors can significantly reduce spurious reports of paranormal phenomena.

Book Reviews

• The Art of Deception: Reviewed by Ted Karren, this book by Nicholas Capaldi is described as an introduction to critical thinking and debate. It emphasizes presenting one's case, attacking an opponent's argument by identifying logical fallacies, and defending one's own case. The book teaches readers to recognize deceptive tactics and points out that it is easier to attack an argument than to defend one.
• Hypnosis, Imagination, and Human Potentialities: Reviewed by Jim Lippard, this book by Barber, Spanos, and Chaves offers a cognitive-behavioral perspective on hypnosis. It rejects traditional assumptions about hypnosis as a distinct state and instead views it as a process where individuals imagine and think along with suggestions. The review details the book's sections on hypnotic induction, mediating variables (attitude, motivation, expectancy), and various hypnotic phenomena, suggesting that many effects can be achieved without formal hypnotic induction.

Meeting Reports

• November PS Meeting: Members engaged in generating predictions for the coming year.
• December PS Meeting: Featured David Alexander discussing "Why people believe in miracles," focusing on faith healing and the fraudulent methods used by some healers. He highlighted the importance of critical thinking.
• TUSKS Lecture: Ken Morse reports on Conrad Goeringer's lecture, "Bimbo's for Satan," which skeptically examined claims about Satanic cults, suggesting that many such claims are media creations rather than reality.

Editor's Ramblings

This section includes an account of David Alexander appearing on KFYI radio with Revs. Helen and Franklin Hall, discussing AIDS cures and alleged fraudulent claims. It also mentions Alexander and Mike discussing predictions on KFYI. The editor thanks Victoria Jones of KFYI for the airtime.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The Arizona Skeptic consistently promotes skepticism, critical thinking, and the scientific method. The publication aims to subject claims of the paranormal, occult, and fringe sciences to rigorous examination, acting as a clearinghouse for factual information. The editorial stance is clearly against pseudoscience and the exploitation of public credulity, advocating for education and logical reasoning to counter misinformation. The issue highlights how psychological factors can lead to belief in the paranormal and critiques practices like faith healing and sensationalized claims about Satanism.