2011 04 00 Scientific American - Vol 304 No 4 - Michael Shermer

Magazine Overview

Title: Skeptic
Issue: April 2011
Volume: 90
Publisher: Scientific American (for Skeptic magazine)
Author: Michael Shermer
Theme: Skepticism, UFOs, UAPs, Science

Article: UFOs, UAPs and CRAPS

Michael Shermer, publisher of Skeptic magazine, addresses the topic of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP), formerly known as UFOs, and their place in scientific inquiry. He begins by recounting a personal experience of seeing a black triangular object that he later identified as a B-2 Stealth Bomber, illustrating how easily such sightings could be mistaken for UFOs without prior knowledge.

Shermer introduces the shift in terminology from UFOs to UAPs, noting that this change is advocated by military, aviation, and political observers. He references a book by investigative journalist Leslie Kean, titled "UFOs: Generals, Pilots, and Government Officials Go on the Record," which argues that UAPs represent a solid, physical phenomenon under intelligent control, capable of advanced performance, and that governments often dismiss or provide false explanations for such sightings. Kean suggests that the hypothesis of extraterrestrial or interdimensional origins for UAPs is rational and must be considered.

However, Shermer poses the question of how much data is available and how to distinguish between UAPs and what he terms "Completely Ridiculous Alien Piffle" (CRAP), such as crop circles, cattle mutilations, alien abductions, and human-alien hybrids. He cites Kean's own admission that approximately 90 to 95 percent of UFO sightings can be explained by conventional means. These explanations include weather balloons, flares, sky lanterns, secret military aircraft, natural celestial bodies like Venus, meteors, satellites, ball lightning, ice crystals, and reflections off clouds or cockpit windows. The extraterrestrial hypothesis, therefore, is based on the small residue of unexplained cases.

Shermer uses the example of the UFO wave over Belgium in 1989-1990, as chronicled by Major General Wilfried De Brouwer, to illustrate his point. De Brouwer described majestic triangular craft with powerful spotlights, moving slowly and capable of accelerating to very high speeds. Shermer contrasts this with Kean's summary of the same incident, highlighting how Kean's language amplifies the mystery: "hover motionless," "hover motionless," "without making a sound," and "speed off in the blink of an eye." Shermer argues that this "language transmutation" is common in UFO narratives and complicates scientific efforts to find natural explanations.

He concludes by explaining the concept of the "residue problem" in science. This refers to anomalies that remain unexplained by the dominant theory. Shermer emphasizes that these anomalies do not invalidate the current theory but rather indicate areas requiring further research to integrate them into the accepted paradigm. He suggests that it is acceptable to live with uncertainty when not everything has an immediate explanation.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme in this article is the importance of critical thinking and scientific skepticism when evaluating extraordinary claims, particularly those related to UFOs and UAPs. Michael Shermer advocates for a rational approach, emphasizing that most unexplained phenomena have mundane explanations and that the burden of proof lies with those proposing extraordinary hypotheses. The editorial stance is one of caution against jumping to conclusions based on limited or exaggerated evidence, promoting a scientific method that seeks natural explanations and acknowledges the limits of current knowledge while remaining open to further investigation. The article critiques the tendency to sensationalize or misrepresent data in UFO narratives, which hinders objective scientific analysis.