1984 07 00 Cellular and Molecular Life Sciences - Vol 40 No 7 - Persinger

Magazine Overview

Title: Experientia
Issue: 40
Volume: 40
Date: 1984
Publisher: Birkhäuser Verlag, Switzerland
Document Type: Magazine Issue

Full Papers: Prediction of historical and contemporary luminosity (UFO) reports by seismic variables within Western Europe

This article by M. A. Persinger, from the Environmental Psychophysiology Lab at Laurentian University, explores the hypothesis that tectonic strain within the Earth's crust is the primary energetic source for documented UFO reports. The study employed discriminant and multiple regression analyses to examine the relationship between seismic variables and historical and contemporary UFO reports, specifically focusing on luminous phenomena (LP) and spectacular luminous phenomena (SLP) within Western Europe.

Historical Context and Data Collection

The report of unusual spherical lights in the night sky has a long history, with descriptors evolving over time. In the 19th century, these were reported in scientific journals as 'odd luminosities' or 'peculiar meteors.' One notable example is a report from Marseilles on August 1, 1871, describing a magnificent red object observed for 10 minutes.

Recent analyses suggest that these historical 'luminous displays' are equivalent to modern UFO reports. This conclusion is based on the accurate classification of contemporary UFO report years using discriminant functions derived from 19th-century data. The variables selected for these functions were based on the hypothesis that UFO-like reports are associated with tectonic strain. Local, temporal patterns in earthquake intensity and relative changes in these numbers from the previous year were used as indicators of tectonic strain.

Figure 1 illustrates the total numbers of seismic events (intensity IV, V+VI, and VII or greater) per year in Western Europe from 1831 to 1980, alongside years with major LP occurrences between 1831 and 1920. Spherical Luminous Phenomena (SLP) were distinguished from general Luminous Phenomena (LP), which included reports like odd light flashes.

A visual pattern emerged: spectacular LP tended to occur around the same years as increased numbers of VII or greater intensity quakes, and/or relative increases in IV or V+VI quakes compared to previous years. This pattern, when extrapolated to the post-Fort collection period, suggested a conspicuous increase in LP between 1945 and 1947, coinciding with the beginning of the modern UFO era.

Predictive Power of Seismic Variables

The study aimed to answer whether seismic patterns could predict SLP and their contemporary equivalents, UFO reports. Years with LP reports in Western Europe between 1870 and 1910 were selected. Ten of these years contained SLP, and 16 years contained total LP (TLP).

For comparison, 10 years with the greatest numbers of documented ball lightning (BL) reports were also identified. Historical LP were chosen to avoid contamination by contemporary labels and to minimize collection artifacts. SLP from the turn of the century were often spectacular, witnessed by many, and reported in scientific journals.

The period 1870-1910 was chosen as it represented a homogeneous portion of Charles Fort's collections. Bivariate correlations indicated a change in the data slope before and after this interval, suggesting potential artifacts from changing instrumentation or surveillance.

Seismic data from the Mayer-Rosa file (1820-1980) were used. Due to skewness in the data, square root values were computed for each intensity type. Percentage changes and simple ratios of changes in earthquake numbers from the previous year were calculated as measures of relative changes, considered indicators of regional tectonic strain.

Multivariate analyses revealed that SLP occurred primarily during years preceded by VII intensity quakes (3 years prior) and increased V intensity quakes (2 years prior) within the 1870-1910 period. Optimal combinations of quake measures explained 45-60% of the variance and achieved 85-95% correct classification of SLP vs. non-SLP years. Adding more variables enhanced the explanation by another 10%.

TLP and Ball Lightning Correlations

TLP were also discriminated by seismic variables measuring relative changes in earthquake numbers from the previous year. These variables accounted for 40-50% of the variance in TLP, allowing 80-90% correct classification. However, no combination of seismic variables explained more than 20% of the variance for years with enhanced 'ball lightning' reports.

Predicted vs. Observed UFO Reports

Figure 2 shows predicted scores for SLP and TLP years based on the derived equations. The analyses demonstrated a clear correspondence between predicted LP years and observed LP years, even for intervals outside the period used to generate the equations. Using a criterion of one standard error of the estimate above the mean (scores > 0.56) for SLP years, predicted events occurred within the same year or one year of the observed events, with the trend evident even for years before 1850 when reports were less frequent.

Applying the equations to data after 1920 (the end of Fort's major period) predicted SLP years in 1921, 1926, 1931, 1936, and 1944. While 1944 was linked to 'foo-fighter' episodes, other years had no obvious SLP references, though Keel indicated 'clusters' of odd airplane and mysterious airship reports during some of these years. The predictions also indicated SLP during 1947, the year of the 'ghost rockets' in the Alps.

The study suggests that an unprecedented series of SLP should have begun around 1949 and continued almost uninterrupted until 1957, a period considered the 'classic period' of the modern UFO era. This reaffirms a long-term relationship between SLP and earthquake activity. Predicted SLP years included 1963, 1965, 1968, and 1977-1978. Bivariate correlations between predicted values and yearly UFO report measures (1947-1979) ranged from +0.60 to +0.70.

The study asserts that the expected SLP years were not artifacts of seismic data selection, as variations in the data selection methods did not substantially change the composition of the seismic variables in the equations.

Figure 3 compares predicted values for SLP between 1920 and 1980 with seismic data. A close correspondence was observed, with some exceptions, particularly between 1950 and 1957. The study notes that even more conservative square root transformations predicted a persistent and unusual elevation of SLP during that period.

TLP closely followed the SLP pattern, with discrepancies suggesting the occurrence of other non-SLP. Years like 1921, 1949, 1951, 1955, and 1956 were predicted to be dominated by SLP, while 1932, 1942, 1947, 1972, and 1979 were predicted to contain more non-SLP.

Conclusion and Theoretical Implications

The study concludes that UFO-like luminosities (SLP) are persistent phenomena, often masked by different labels. The relationship between seismic activity and luminous phenomena supports the hypothesis that a significant portion of UFO-like reports are measures of actual environmental events associated with solar-geophysical processes. Predicted SLP values correlated highly (0.91) with values from an equation that included seismic data from the same year as the SLP, suggesting that antecedent seismic profiles contribute significantly to the variance in earthquake patterns associated with SLP.

The authors acknowledge a potential theoretical contradiction: the prediction of SLP by antecedent seismic variables versus the tendency for SLP and UFO reports to precede major seismic energy releases. This discrepancy might be resolved by assuming an optimal tectonic strain factor involved in SLP production, which could occur before, during, or after large seismic events. The study posits that the relationship between SLP-like UFO reports and regional tectonic strain will become more apparent with direct measures of this condition.

Article on Nifedipine and Verapamil

This section details a separate study by C. A. Maggi and A. Meli from the Pharmacology Department at A. Menarini Pharmaceuticals in Florence, Italy. The study investigates the effect of nifedipine and verapamil on KCl-induced rhythmic contractions of guinea pig ureter in vitro.

Summary of Findings

Addition of KCl (40 mM) induced rhythmic contractions of guinea-pig ureters, unaffected by phentolamine, atropine, or tetrodotoxin. These contractions were dependent on extracellular Ca++ and were reduced in frequency and amplitude by nifedipine and verapamil. Verapamil was more effective than nifedipine in reducing amplitude. Urethane reduced amplitude but not frequency. Increased extracellular Ca++ concentration reverted the suppressive effects of the drugs.

Conclusion

The results suggest that Ca++ influx is responsible for initiating KCl-induced rhythmic contractions and regulates their frequency, while a separate mechanism regulates their amplitude.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The primary theme of this issue, as highlighted by the cover article, is the scientific investigation of UFO phenomena through correlation with geophysical variables, specifically seismic activity. The article by Persinger presents a strong case for a link between tectonic strain and reported luminous events, suggesting that historical and contemporary sightings are not random but may be tied to measurable environmental factors. The inclusion of a separate pharmacological study on ureter contractions indicates a broad scope for the journal, covering diverse scientific research. The overall stance appears to be one of rigorous, data-driven scientific inquiry into phenomena that have often been relegated to the fringes of scientific study.