1983 12 00 Perceptual and Motor Skills - Vol 57 No 3 - Persinger

Magazine Overview

This document is a scientific article titled "GEOPHYSICAL VARIABLES AND HUMAN BEHAVIOR: XV. TECTONIC STRAIN LUMINOSITIES (UFO REPORTS) AS PREDICTABLE BUT HIDDEN EVENTS WITHIN PRE-1947 CENTRAL U.S.A." by M. A. Persinger, published in Perceptual and Motor Skills, Volume 57, pages 1227-1234, in 1983. The article explores the hypothesis that tectonic strain is the primary energetic source for UFO events.

Key Findings and Methodology

The article's summary states that changes in tectonic strain within the Earth's crust are hypothesized to be the primary energetic source for most documented UFO events. Multiple regression analyses suggest that at least 50% of the variance in UFO report measures can be explained by optimal solar-seismic variables. Equations developed for the central U.S.A. accurately predicted the occurrence of UFO-report episodes after the years from which they were generated and indicated the presence of UFO-like reports long before 1947, suggesting that the labels for these phenomena have evolved over time.

Recent analyses by Persinger (1983a) indicated that events labeled as "luminosities" in earlier centuries are now commonly referred to as UFOs. This conclusion was based on the accurate prediction of contemporary UFO report years in Europe using discriminant functions derived from nineteenth-century data. The underlying hypothesis is that most UFO-like reports are associated with tectonic strain within the Earth's crust (Persinger, 1976, 1983b).

This article presents further evidence that UFO reports (UFORs) may represent actual events generated by changes in tectonic strain. The study assumes that UFOR data from the present can predict UFO-like reports in the past. Two empirical assumptions underpin this hypothesis for 6-month increments: (1) tectonic strain is reflected in the temporal patterns of earthquake intensities before and after UFOR occurrences, and (2) sudden changes in solar activity, acting as "triggers" (e.g., geomagnetic storms), evoke luminous events when optimal strain is present (Persinger, 1983c, 1983d).

Method

UFO reports were collected from the Center for UFO Studies (CUFOS) for the central U.S.A. for 6-month intervals (January-June, July-December) from 1950 to 1975. Two measures were derived: the square root of the total number of UFORs and a 0, 1, or 2 flap score based on the rate of change and absolute value of change in UFOR numbers. This flap score was designed to mitigate skewness and the effects of changing data sources.

A "flap" was defined as a sharp increase in UFORs within a 1- to 3-month period in an area of approximately 500 by 500 km. A score of 0 indicated no flap, 1 a normal flap, and 2 an exceptional flap. The flap measure showed a high correlation (0.80) with similar measures from Fate Magazine and APRO.

Stepwise multiple regressions (REGRESSION) were performed using SPSS software. For this study, only earthquake and solar-geophysical measures available for the nineteenth century were used as independent variables, lagged from 1 to 10 increments (5 years). The most significant variables identified were: the mean square root of monthly Zurich sunspot numbers per 6-month interval (SUNSQ), the maximum positive increase in monthly sunspot numbers between adjacent months (PSBURST), the percentage change in low-intensity earthquakes (LOWCH), and the occurrence of intensity VII or greater quakes (QVII).

Two key computations were made: the recoding of the maximum positive change in sunspot numbers into an ordinal scale (SPJUMP), and a weighted measure for earthquake intensity (VIII or greater = 2, VII quakes, IX = 3, VII quakes, X = 4, VII quakes) due to the rarity of high-intensity quakes in the central U.S.A. between 1950 and 1980.

Results

Figure 1 shows the observed (O) and predicted (•) CUFOS-registered numbers of UFO reports for 6-month intervals in the central U.S.A. from 1950-1969, based on the equation CUFS69. The shaded bar indicates the years used to generate the equation, and predicted values for periods before and after are also shown. Figure 2 displays predicted UFO report flap scores for 6-month intervals between 1860 and 1980, based on equation CFLA69J.

The optimal equation (CUF74J), using data from 1950 to 1974, did not yield significantly better predictions than equations ending in 1969. The predicted general pattern and peak report numbers were found to be commensurate with the observed data.

For the years 1950 to 1969, CUFOS-registered UFORs increased under specific conditions: (1) a decrease in mean sunspot measures 5 lags prior, (2) a VII or greater quake 3 lags prior, (3) a percentage increase in low-intensity quake numbers in the preceding six months, (4) a sudden increase in sunspot numbers between adjacent months during the contemporary interval, and (5) a decrease in this measure during the previous interval.

The Durbin-Watson tests indicated potential autocorrelation within the data, which might affect the significance of F ratios but not necessarily the predictive capacity of the equations. Fine-tuning the equations for 1950-1969 using all combinations of quake intensities and geomagnetic measures elevated the multiple R values to not more than 0.85 with seven variables, shifting Durbin-Watson values to between 1.90 and 2.10. This suggests that approximately 65% of the variance in UFOR numbers could be accommodated.

Possible explanations for the remaining variance include the overinclusive nature of the UFO label, failure to discriminate investigated from non-investigated cases, potential contributions from other variance sources, and inconsistent rates of strain change over time. A fourth option is that some UFORs may be related to sources of variance minimally correlated with tectonic strain.

Despite these limitations, the derived equations successfully predicted increased UFORs or elevated flap scores for years not used in their generation. A notable prediction was a cascading elevation of reports from 1946 to 1948, coinciding with the 1947 "UFO panic." The equations also accurately predicted a flap in the second half of 1973 and specified UFO bursts in late 1976 and 1978, although confirmation data for these latter events were unavailable.

The study also predicted that UFO-like conditions, some more intense than contemporary episodes, should have existed long before 1947, the commonly accepted onset of the UFO phenomenon. This aligns with the persistent nature of tectonic strain, suggesting that reports should have been more copious throughout history if strain were the sole factor.

Historical Context and Alternative Explanations

Persinger suggests that "luminosities" were persistent and frequent phenomena, but their recognition has been masked by different labels or a lack of social networks to record them. Historical examples like child battering illustrate how persistent phenomena may not be reported due to social mores. Other phenomena might be ignored if they do not fit contemporary frameworks, citing meteorites and ball lightning as examples.

The labels used to describe unusual events change over generations, influencing the characteristics of reporting. It is difficult to discern persistent occurrences like Halley's comet from medieval descriptions. Religious themes in pre-twentieth-century culture likely led to biblical interpretations of luminosity reports.

The equations predicted significant UFO-like activity between 1880-1884 and in early 1897. The 1880-1884 period coincided with numerous luminosity reports in the central U.S.A., while the 1897 peak coincided with the "airship invasion" reports, which were interpreted within the context of aspirations for "flying machines" and anticipated invasions.

While the periods 1906 and 1910-11 show historical references, the luminosities during the 1920s and 1930s are less documented in traditional UFO literature. Keel (1970) noted "mysterious airplane" reports, but specific data for predicted extraordinary flaps in 1933 and late 1938 are lacking. The article suggests that these periods warrant investigation from this perspective, as brief, intense UFO episodes are more likely to be noticed than sustained baseline shifts.

Recurring Themes and Editorial Stance

The recurring theme throughout the article is the geophysical basis of UFO phenomena, specifically linking them to tectonic strain and solar activity. The author posits that these events are not necessarily extraterrestrial but are natural phenomena influenced by Earth's geological processes. The editorial stance appears to be one of scientific inquiry, seeking to explain anomalous phenomena through empirical data analysis and statistical modeling, challenging conventional views on the origin and history of UFO reports.

References

The article includes references to works by Hendry, Jacobs, Keel, Persinger (multiple entries), and Westrum, covering topics such as UFO handbooks, controversy in America, operation Trojan Horse, geophysical variables and behavior, and science and social intelligence about anomalies.